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> If the NG (or ideally another federal LE agency) demonstrably reduces crime in DC I don't know how you could measure this, since DC saw a very significant re

> If the NG (or ideally another federal LE agency) demonstrably reduces crime in DC I don't know how you could measure this, since DC saw a very significant reduction in crime last year without any interference from the National Guard. If there are further reductions this year, that would be a continuation of a trend, not a new phenomenon.

skajzbxbbj 1y ago
[flagged]
- burkaman 1y ago
  If you don't trust the stats, then again, how would you know what effect the National Guard has? I can give you my subjective assessment as a DC resident, which is that crime is pretty low and it's a great place to live, but that isn't very useful to anyone who doesn't know me personally. If you don't trust the stats then the Guard is being sent in for no reason and there will be no way to determine what impact they have. That is a terrible situation for everyone. > It’s nice to be data driven but that isn’t really possible in our low trust society. I don't think these concepts (interpersonal trust vs. accuracy of government statistics) are very related. For example China has one of the highest levels of interpersonal trust in the world (https://ourworldindata.org/trust https://ourworldindata.org/trust), but notoriously unreliable government statistics.
  - skajzbxbbj 1y ago
    [flagged]
    - dang 1y ago
      Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix&page=0&query=community%20identity%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme... (This is not related to the content of your post - I just needed a place to put this reply.)
  - Goronmon 1y ago
    That is a terrible situation for everyone. It's not terrible for everyone. It's great for people who control the National Guard as well as has the ability to control what people are told about their impact.
  - runsWphotons 1y ago
    DC seems to have more murders than the netherlands each year despite being 25 times smaller. I guess what one considers safe is very subjective.
    - anigbrowl 1y ago
      Ah, but you're not free in the Netherlands because you don't have a second amendment. /s
      - runsWphotons 1y ago
        DC has incredibly strict gun laws. I doubt many of the weapons used in crimes are legal. I don't think you will be truly any less free having national guard soldiers walking around. Actually seems better than the usual dystopian tech solutions people come up with. Maybe they will try it for thirty days and people will like it.
        anigbrowl 1y ago
        DC isn't an island. It's super easy for people in the region to get hold of guns, it's just that they'll be in a lot of trouble if they get caught actually doing crime in DC with a gun. The question of whether guns used in crime are legal or not seems moot to me, they are equally deadly if misused.
        gottorf 1y ago
        > it's just that they'll be in a lot of trouble if they get caught actually doing crime in DC with a gun Actually, the whole issue is that this is not true! Statistically speaking, the average crime in DC, whether involving a gun or not, goes uncaught, unresolved, and ultimately unpunished.
        runsWphotons 1y ago
        How is this different from the netherlands?
- solid_fuel 1y ago
  So you don't trust the stats from last year - which show a decline, but you've already implied that you _will_ trust the stats from this year, if they show a decline. Additionally, this administration has already shown a propensity toward firing people when they report inconvenient data - jobs data, climate data, etc. That renders any stats reported by this admin going forward very suspect. You are engaging in motivated reasoning, at best. Not objective analysis.

skajzbxbbj 1y ago

[flagged]

burkaman 1y ago
If you don't trust the stats, then again, how would you know what effect the National Guard has? I can give you my subjective assessment as a DC resident, which is that crime is pretty low and it's a great place to live, but that isn't very useful to anyone who doesn't know me personally. If you don't trust the stats then the Guard is being sent in for no reason and there will be no way to determine what impact they have. That is a terrible situation for everyone. > It’s nice to be data driven but that isn’t really possible in our low trust society. I don't think these concepts (interpersonal trust vs. accuracy of government statistics) are very related. For example China has one of the highest levels of interpersonal trust in the world (https://ourworldindata.org/trust https://ourworldindata.org/trust), but notoriously unreliable government statistics.
- skajzbxbbj 1y ago
  [flagged]
  - dang 1y ago
    Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix&page=0&query=community%20identity%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme... (This is not related to the content of your post - I just needed a place to put this reply.)
- Goronmon 1y ago
  That is a terrible situation for everyone. It's not terrible for everyone. It's great for people who control the National Guard as well as has the ability to control what people are told about their impact.
- runsWphotons 1y ago
  DC seems to have more murders than the netherlands each year despite being 25 times smaller. I guess what one considers safe is very subjective.
  - anigbrowl 1y ago
    Ah, but you're not free in the Netherlands because you don't have a second amendment. /s
    - runsWphotons 1y ago
      DC has incredibly strict gun laws. I doubt many of the weapons used in crimes are legal. I don't think you will be truly any less free having national guard soldiers walking around. Actually seems better than the usual dystopian tech solutions people come up with. Maybe they will try it for thirty days and people will like it.
      - anigbrowl 1y ago
        DC isn't an island. It's super easy for people in the region to get hold of guns, it's just that they'll be in a lot of trouble if they get caught actually doing crime in DC with a gun. The question of whether guns used in crime are legal or not seems moot to me, they are equally deadly if misused.
        gottorf 1y ago
        > it's just that they'll be in a lot of trouble if they get caught actually doing crime in DC with a gun Actually, the whole issue is that this is not true! Statistically speaking, the average crime in DC, whether involving a gun or not, goes uncaught, unresolved, and ultimately unpunished.
        runsWphotons 1y ago
        How is this different from the netherlands?
solid_fuel 1y ago
So you don't trust the stats from last year - which show a decline, but you've already implied that you _will_ trust the stats from this year, if they show a decline. Additionally, this administration has already shown a propensity toward firing people when they report inconvenient data - jobs data, climate data, etc. That renders any stats reported by this admin going forward very suspect. You are engaging in motivated reasoning, at best. Not objective analysis.