3 ms·
By definition, if something is still getting 10% better each year it hasn’t yet peaked. Not even close.
by al_borland 1y ago
By definition, if something is still getting 10% better each year it hasn’t yet peaked. Not even close.
- coldtea 1y agoGetting 10% better over this last year compared to, say, 100% and 50% and 25% better the 4-5 years before? I'd say that points to it being very close to peaked. Nobody said anything about a steady 10% year-over-year being the case forever...
- anuramat 1y agokinda how theoretical physics peaked in 1878, as predicted by Philipp von Jolly? why does everyone feel the urge to extrapolate a vibe-based metric based on three points? isn't scientific/technological progress inherently unpredictable anyway
- coldtea 1y agoNo, more like how theoretical physics peaked in 1960s. >why does everyone feel the urge to extrapolate a vibe-based metric based on three points? Because marketers of AI extrapolate even worse to hype it, and a counter-correction is needed...
- anuramat 1y agoI meant that we could be in the 19th century stage, not that we necessarily are > marketers of AI why would I ever consider their opinion to be valuable?
- BriggyDwiggs42 1y agoIt’s just extrapolating the asymptote man.