You are mixing up two ideas. The survey stated that Japan was going to lose the war with or without nuclear weapons as strategically Japan was overmatched, whi

You are mixing up two ideas. The survey stated that Japan was going to lose the war with or without nuclear weapons as strategically Japan was overmatched, which was obviously true. However, this survey was looking at Japan’s overall defeat, not the timing of surrender or the number of casualties avoided by dropping the bomb. At the time, US military planners were working with invasion timetables that projected tens of thousands to hundred thousands of US casualties if the US invaded Japan. The survey doesn’t deny that many more American or Japanese soldiers might have died in the weeks or months before surrender if the war had not ended immediately after the atomic bomb was droppped.