3 ms·

With the shoot the messenger management style. Will the BLS ever be trustworthy again? What happens to markets when we can't trust any government statistics.

burnt-resistor 1y ago
See, what they really need to do is release the politically-desired results in press releases while sending the real information using steganographic concealment in the page's logo. We must construct a Truman Show around Dear Leader for our own survival. /s Previous users of this data will seek alternative, less precise signals elsewhere and likely use conservative, pessimistic guesstimates that will tend to be risk-adverse and not encourage expansion or investment.
noitpmeder 1y ago
Maybe the best move at this point is to move toward the BLS releasing all the raw data, but do not publish conclusions of their own? Then at least you have a central "unbiased" (if that's ever an actual state) agency responsible for collection, and leave it up to the more polarized outlets/statisticians/... to produce their own interpretations. E.g. similar to Census data -- central data collection managed by govt, generalized anonymous data released for interpretation by anyone.
- croes 1y ago
  That opens the door for lots of Wrong conclusions either lack of knowledge and maliciousness. Statistics is often counterintuitive.
  - noitpmeder 1y ago
    Sure, but the alternative is implicitly trusting the conclusions and interpretations the govt agency, who are (almost assuredly) humans with biases and not impartial robots. It's a lot harder to attack general best practice statistic collection than it is to throw shade at an editorial. (not that certain administrations have issues attacking best practice science) Issue also arise "easily" when the people charged with producing editorials are political appointees who are easy targets for subsequent administrations looking to shift blame. (seems we're at this stage now)
    - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
      Except that they already do publish all the data, and their methods.
      - FrustratedMonky 1y ago
        Thats what I don't get. You can fire the messenger, but as long as data and methods are published, anybody can check it out and verify it. Guess biggest worry would be if BLS actually starts keeping secrets and just publishing numbers they want.
  - ThinkingGuy 1y ago
    See also: The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)
- FrustratedMonky 1y ago
  Was on news yesterday, not sure if will happen. But Trump now also does not trust the Census and wants to do another one. So then what happens when we can't even trust the Census? And Totals are just gamed for Congressional seats.
  - noitpmeder 1y ago
    Yeah we live in a crazy world. Honestly the fact that they don't trust it probably lends more credence toward their results -- it's extremely unfortunate that many of these agencies/systems/... live under the executive branch's whims and not as part of congressionally-mandated programs where it'd be more difficult to meddle. The current 2-party system with fixed terms almost lends itself to promoting the political appointee system where entire department head counts turn over after a change in ruling party. If you're a "career" politician it's a no-brainer to fill these positions wholesale with people who are favorable to your world view, or donated to your administration, or spend lots of money at your hotel chain, ...
  - phkahler 1y ago
    Sounds like he doesn't want non-citizens to be counted. I'd rather they get counted, but maybe not used for determining seats in congress. It's kind of important to know how many people are present in an area and how that changes over time. Deporting illegals (like it or dislike it) is a separate thing from knowing how many people are in a state. Come to think of it, even if you're in favor of the deportations, you gotta have accurate data to know where to deploy resources. This desire to fake the data is just bizarre.
  - elictronic 1y ago
    Its not that he doesn't trust the census. It's that they want a census marking US citizens vs. immigrants and illegal immigrants. It doesn't matter what they say so much, more what the end goal is. Voting districts with higher populations receive a larger number of representatives. Currently we do not differentiate and legally the census defines these numbers which is very hard to change. If a census is run with these identified you have strong legal arguments with the "Current" Supreme Court to remove those immigrants/illegal immigrants from the representative totals. The side benefit for this admin is many legal immigrants and some residents become more untrustworthy of those style questions and also do not answer again lowering representation in those districts further. The Census is inaccurate if the goal is legally removing those people from the representative counts.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- nonameiguess 1y ago
  BLS already does this. It's not the most friendly interface, but you can directly query the database from its own website here: https://data.bls.gov/dataQuery/search https://data.bls.gov/dataQuery/search. There's also a public API: https://www.bls.gov/developers/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/developers/home.htm.
- jfengel 1y ago
  The BLS gathers data to support its methodology. If the methodology were biased, having access to the raw data would not solve the problem. You could always claim "BLS is ignoring X".
bko 1y ago
I mean, they already don't. Investors aren't stupid. Half of financial analysis is converting financial metrics from GAAP to other more meaningful structures that allow for proper forecasting and comparison. They spend billions on alternative data, trying to get an edge. They take nothing at face value. I think the government stuff is a bit of a farce. They have an incentive like any other institution. For instance, inflation metrics are tied to trillions of dollars in terms of retirement benefits or other programs that are indexed to inflation. They have a gigantic incentive to play with the numbers. And I'm 100% convinced that they do. Does anyone believe food prices went up only 28% since pre-covid? Did something go from costing $4 to $5? No, most things close to doubled. But they're able to play with the numbers changing the basket (beef getting more expensive, we'll just swap that out with Tofu!).
- redserk 1y ago
  What?
- amanaplanacanal 1y ago
  The basket is determined by what people actually buy, rather than what they would like to buy. And they are about two years behind, so the current basket is based on surveys done in 2023.
  - bko 1y ago
    So based on your experience, your food budget went up about 28% from pre-covid? They have a lot of discretion, it's not formulaic. If it was, ironically it would be great to privatize! Here are the specs, and provide proof. Easy. Here is from the world bank talking about tight and loose specifications: > The CPI Manual refers to tight and loose specifications of product or item varieties. Tight specifications better facilitate the calculation of average prices and ensure comparability of items across countries, which is the aim of ICP price collection. Accordingly, the ICP stipulates strict requirements for the selection of items for pricing. These may include restricting the choice of brand or the size of an item by weight, volume, or quantity for example. For the CPI, tight specifications tend to be useful for electronic and other items with high rates of turnover. Again, look at the facts: 1. It's complicated and not easily observable 2. There is some discretion 3. Politics and trillions in government spending is on stake 4. The numbers don't match personal experience https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2b29c1445d7fa006e5f4ca00087dbe36-0050022021/original/Guide-CPI-and-ICP.pdf https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2b29c1445d7fa006e5f4ca0...
chasing 1y ago
Yes, if the executive branch is trustworthy. We need to send a clear signal to the Republican Party that this sort of general behavior is not acceptable to Americans.
- croes 1y ago
  They don’t care
  - chasing 1y ago
    Sadly, I think you’re right. And a nation of citizens who don’t care about good government is a nation that is in collapse.

burnt-resistor 1y ago

See, what they really need to do is release the politically-desired results in press releases while sending the real information using steganographic concealment in the page's logo. We must construct a Truman Show around Dear Leader for our own survival. /s Previous users of this data will seek alternative, less precise signals elsewhere and likely use conservative, pessimistic guesstimates that will tend to be risk-adverse and not encourage expansion or investment.

noitpmeder 1y ago

Maybe the best move at this point is to move toward the BLS releasing all the raw data, but do not publish conclusions of their own? Then at least you have a central "unbiased" (if that's ever an actual state) agency responsible for collection, and leave it up to the more polarized outlets/statisticians/... to produce their own interpretations. E.g. similar to Census data -- central data collection managed by govt, generalized anonymous data released for interpretation by anyone.

croes 1y ago
That opens the door for lots of Wrong conclusions either lack of knowledge and maliciousness. Statistics is often counterintuitive.
- noitpmeder 1y ago
  Sure, but the alternative is implicitly trusting the conclusions and interpretations the govt agency, who are (almost assuredly) humans with biases and not impartial robots. It's a lot harder to attack general best practice statistic collection than it is to throw shade at an editorial. (not that certain administrations have issues attacking best practice science) Issue also arise "easily" when the people charged with producing editorials are political appointees who are easy targets for subsequent administrations looking to shift blame. (seems we're at this stage now)
  - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
    Except that they already do publish all the data, and their methods.
    - FrustratedMonky 1y ago
      Thats what I don't get. You can fire the messenger, but as long as data and methods are published, anybody can check it out and verify it. Guess biggest worry would be if BLS actually starts keeping secrets and just publishing numbers they want.
- ThinkingGuy 1y ago
  See also: The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)
FrustratedMonky 1y ago
Was on news yesterday, not sure if will happen. But Trump now also does not trust the Census and wants to do another one. So then what happens when we can't even trust the Census? And Totals are just gamed for Congressional seats.
- noitpmeder 1y ago
  Yeah we live in a crazy world. Honestly the fact that they don't trust it probably lends more credence toward their results -- it's extremely unfortunate that many of these agencies/systems/... live under the executive branch's whims and not as part of congressionally-mandated programs where it'd be more difficult to meddle. The current 2-party system with fixed terms almost lends itself to promoting the political appointee system where entire department head counts turn over after a change in ruling party. If you're a "career" politician it's a no-brainer to fill these positions wholesale with people who are favorable to your world view, or donated to your administration, or spend lots of money at your hotel chain, ...
- phkahler 1y ago
  Sounds like he doesn't want non-citizens to be counted. I'd rather they get counted, but maybe not used for determining seats in congress. It's kind of important to know how many people are present in an area and how that changes over time. Deporting illegals (like it or dislike it) is a separate thing from knowing how many people are in a state. Come to think of it, even if you're in favor of the deportations, you gotta have accurate data to know where to deploy resources. This desire to fake the data is just bizarre.
- elictronic 1y ago
  Its not that he doesn't trust the census. It's that they want a census marking US citizens vs. immigrants and illegal immigrants. It doesn't matter what they say so much, more what the end goal is. Voting districts with higher populations receive a larger number of representatives. Currently we do not differentiate and legally the census defines these numbers which is very hard to change. If a census is run with these identified you have strong legal arguments with the "Current" Supreme Court to remove those immigrants/illegal immigrants from the representative totals. The side benefit for this admin is many legal immigrants and some residents become more untrustworthy of those style questions and also do not answer again lowering representation in those districts further. The Census is inaccurate if the goal is legally removing those people from the representative counts.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
nonameiguess 1y ago
BLS already does this. It's not the most friendly interface, but you can directly query the database from its own website here: https://data.bls.gov/dataQuery/search https://data.bls.gov/dataQuery/search. There's also a public API: https://www.bls.gov/developers/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/developers/home.htm.
jfengel 1y ago
The BLS gathers data to support its methodology. If the methodology were biased, having access to the raw data would not solve the problem. You could always claim "BLS is ignoring X".

bko 1y ago

I mean, they already don't. Investors aren't stupid. Half of financial analysis is converting financial metrics from GAAP to other more meaningful structures that allow for proper forecasting and comparison. They spend billions on alternative data, trying to get an edge. They take nothing at face value. I think the government stuff is a bit of a farce. They have an incentive like any other institution. For instance, inflation metrics are tied to trillions of dollars in terms of retirement benefits or other programs that are indexed to inflation. They have a gigantic incentive to play with the numbers. And I'm 100% convinced that they do. Does anyone believe food prices went up only 28% since pre-covid? Did something go from costing $4 to $5? No, most things close to doubled. But they're able to play with the numbers changing the basket (beef getting more expensive, we'll just swap that out with Tofu!).

redserk 1y ago
What?
amanaplanacanal 1y ago
The basket is determined by what people actually buy, rather than what they would like to buy. And they are about two years behind, so the current basket is based on surveys done in 2023.
- bko 1y ago
  So based on your experience, your food budget went up about 28% from pre-covid? They have a lot of discretion, it's not formulaic. If it was, ironically it would be great to privatize! Here are the specs, and provide proof. Easy. Here is from the world bank talking about tight and loose specifications: > The CPI Manual refers to tight and loose specifications of product or item varieties. Tight specifications better facilitate the calculation of average prices and ensure comparability of items across countries, which is the aim of ICP price collection. Accordingly, the ICP stipulates strict requirements for the selection of items for pricing. These may include restricting the choice of brand or the size of an item by weight, volume, or quantity for example. For the CPI, tight specifications tend to be useful for electronic and other items with high rates of turnover. Again, look at the facts: 1. It's complicated and not easily observable 2. There is some discretion 3. Politics and trillions in government spending is on stake 4. The numbers don't match personal experience https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2b29c1445d7fa006e5f4ca00087dbe36-0050022021/original/Guide-CPI-and-ICP.pdf https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2b29c1445d7fa006e5f4ca0...

chasing 1y ago

Yes, if the executive branch is trustworthy. We need to send a clear signal to the Republican Party that this sort of general behavior is not acceptable to Americans.

croes 1y ago
They don’t care
- chasing 1y ago
  Sadly, I think you’re right. And a nation of citizens who don’t care about good government is a nation that is in collapse.