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Does sufficient capacity for recasting actually exist in the US or would it need to be built? If the latter, how long will it take to build it? I suspect it do
by jsnell 1y ago
Does sufficient capacity for recasting actually exist in the US or would it need to be built? If the latter, how long will it take to build it?
I suspect it doesn't exist yet. In fact, the majority of the US trade deficit with Switzerland is attributable to a very recent spike in gold imports. And my understanding is that in turn is a triangular arbitrage trade where physical gold has higher prices in the US, so 400-ounce bars of gold were getting exported from London to Switzerland to be recast, and then to the US.
This was never going to be a durable trade, since the arbitrage only existed due to an expectation of future tariffs on Gold. It probably also was a major contributor Switzerland having just been slapped by extremely punitive tariffs on actually productive sectors of the economy. Good riddance.