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Just for fun, here is a great read from a "leading Tesla analyst" 2 years ago "Tesla jumps as analyst predicts $600 billion value boost from Dojo": https://www

Just for fun, here is a great read from a "leading Tesla analyst" 2 years ago "Tesla jumps as analyst predicts $600 billion value boost from Dojo": https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-supercomputer-could-boost-ev-makers-market-cap-by-600-bln-morgan-stanley-2023-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-... Also worth noting that Elon said 2 weeks (!!!) ago on investors call that they expect to have Dojo operating sometime next year at scale equivalent to 100k h100... How people still don't see that this guy is just lying all the time is beyond me. The ship is sinking very fast folks.

ethagknight 1y ago
Given that AI is core to Tesla's robotic and self driving future, it seems like theres a lot more to this story than what has been leaked thus far.
- iszomer 1y ago
  Maybe an intentional troll, given the profile's project.the.snowball moniker. /shrug
- cosmicgadget 1y ago
  There are other hardware vendors.
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  Yeah, there is more to the story - it's just pure fantasy ! Tesla robotic future ? They are years behind competitors... they are very good at faking autonomous robots though - people are still falling for their Twitter posts, Robotaxi unveil with teleoperated robots and Tesla Diner teleoperated robot serving popcorn (which last something like 2 days... then it was gone already). It's all PR stuff, nothing is really happening behind the scenes.
  - ethagknight 1y ago
    Well. My Tesla has been driving me around for a couple years now. it's not perfect but it's certainly not a fantasy to eliminate the human driver observation components and just let it rip. I dont know where Tesla stands in terms of progress for robotics, but a major difference maker will be Elon's willingness to risk billions to get there. Merging together the technological paths of autonomous behavior of a robot and all the little actuators, power supplies and sensors suites does not seem like a big leap either. Challenging but not fantasy. Part of Elon's process is demonstrating the potential need / business case, while also testing implementation in real world, high stakes environments. A bartender/service roll is a fun place to test since they can deliver a service in a public setting, potentially tethered to the wall.
    - TheAlchemist 1y ago
      "but it's certainly not a fantasy to eliminate the human driver observation components and just let it rip" Yes it is fantasy. This is the same thing like showing a mockup and saying - okay, that's it, now we 'just' need to implement and make it work. FSD as an ADAS system is fantastic. But it's nowhere near a fully autonomous driving.
ivape 1y ago
Two years ago Elon actually sounded a warning about Dojo. I recall him mentioning this in an earnings call: “And we’re pursuing the dual path of Nvidia and Dojo. But I would think of Dojo as a long shot. It’s a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it’s not something that is a high probability. It’s not like a sure thing at all. It’s a high‑risk, high‑payoff program. Dojo is working, and it is doing training jobs, and we are scaling it up, and we have plans for Dojo 1.5, Dojo 2, Dojo 3, and whatnot. So I think it’s got potential, but I can’t emphasize enough: high risk, high payoff.” https://thetranscript.net/transcript/5550/tesla-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript https://thetranscript.net/transcript/5550/tesla-q4-2023-earn... In other words, he admitted it’s a long shot to replace Nvidia with their own chip awhile ago. It’s interesting because Google hasn’t given up on their TPUs, but Elon being a hardware guy mostly, has.
- kranke155 1y ago
  I doubt Elon had the time or the inclination to build yet another hardware stack, and he probably saw something that showed him he couldn’t quite catch up to Nvidia? The scale of Nvidia manufacturing and RnD should be staggering atm. Google built the entire software and hardware stack for TPUs before the AI boom. I can’t even imagine how hard it would be to hire GPU hardware talent right now.
  - bubblethink 1y ago
    Really hard to do training hardware as the software stack is quite complex and needs to be general and flexible. Inference on the other hand is easier, which is what a lot of new hardware will be. I doubt if it makes sense for Tesla to build hardware for datacenter inference. Xai on the other hand could benefit from it.
- mrandish 1y ago
  > it’s a long shot to replace Nvidia with their own chip awhile ago It's also worth mentioning that having their own ambitious effort in secret development was a valuable BATNA (negotiating tactic) for long-term contracts with outside suppliers. The value of that recent >$16B deal with Samsung for AI chips thru 2033 may have benefited from the prospect of Dojo as a potential in-house alternative.
bamboozled 1y ago
It’s amazing how people are operating with such immunity. If I lied to my boss like that I suppose I’d just be fired and let go without pay…or would I get promoted ? I’m not into fucking society over like these sociopaths, I guess that’s “my problem”.
enslavedrobot 1y ago
This is what people said in 2018 when the stock was 16$. In case you aren't keeping up Tesla signed a $17billion agreement with Samsung to produce their AI6 chip family which is designed to replace the dojo architecture. It is a harmonized design that can be scaled to training clusters or deployed in edge inference.
moralestapia 1y ago
Another Karpathy initiative that turned out to be utter trash ... https://www.hpcwire.com/2021/06/22/ahead-of-dojo-tesla-reveals-its-massive-precursor-supercomputer/ https://www.hpcwire.com/2021/06/22/ahead-of-dojo-tesla-revea...
DoesntMatter22 1y ago
I don't understand co.ments like this. Clearly they realized that it wasn't worth doing and cut costs accordingly. This seems smart. Companies constantly place bets and adapt when they aren't working out. As far as the ship sinking that's pretty silly. They continue to be profitable with some sectors like energy growing very quickly. Virtually all EV makers have faced a couple of tough years. Many like Rivian and lucid are getting clobbered. Tesla has a 37 billion dollar bank account and low debt. There is no scenario that the ship is sinking
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  What I'm pointing to is the absurdity of the situation. It was supposed to be a huge project, valued by some analysts at $600 billions, and years in the making. The CEO himself self recently they are on track to bring it online next year at a huge scale. 2 weeks ago he was still saying it, now it's axed. It was clearly nowhere near where they said it was, or they would have some significant sunk costs and write downs. None of which exist in their financial statements for Dojo. As for the ship sinking - I know it seems like a huge exaggeration now. But it's a car maker, with a collapsing sales and which made virtually all the profits from direct and indirect subsides - which just got axed too. That alone would be very worrying. But it's also a company which sold billions of $ of software that is still not working as advertised and lawsuit are only starting to come in. By their own admission the software won't work on >50% of cars they already sold and they would need to upgrade them 'sometime in the future'. Oh and the CEO is the most hated man in the US currently.
  - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
    In 2023 their profit was 15 billion dollars. Of that they got 1.79 billion in regulatory credits. So about 12%. They also made over 15 billion in 2024 of which regulatory credits were 2.7 billion, about %18%. So your claim seems false. https://ycharts.com/indicators/tesla_inc_tsla_automotive_regulatory_credits_revenue https://ycharts.com/indicators/tesla_inc_tsla_automotive_reg... https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials/

ethagknight 1y ago

Given that AI is core to Tesla's robotic and self driving future, it seems like theres a lot more to this story than what has been leaked thus far.

iszomer 1y ago
Maybe an intentional troll, given the profile's project.the.snowball moniker. /shrug
cosmicgadget 1y ago
There are other hardware vendors.
TheAlchemist 1y ago
Yeah, there is more to the story - it's just pure fantasy ! Tesla robotic future ? They are years behind competitors... they are very good at faking autonomous robots though - people are still falling for their Twitter posts, Robotaxi unveil with teleoperated robots and Tesla Diner teleoperated robot serving popcorn (which last something like 2 days... then it was gone already). It's all PR stuff, nothing is really happening behind the scenes.
- ethagknight 1y ago
  Well. My Tesla has been driving me around for a couple years now. it's not perfect but it's certainly not a fantasy to eliminate the human driver observation components and just let it rip. I dont know where Tesla stands in terms of progress for robotics, but a major difference maker will be Elon's willingness to risk billions to get there. Merging together the technological paths of autonomous behavior of a robot and all the little actuators, power supplies and sensors suites does not seem like a big leap either. Challenging but not fantasy. Part of Elon's process is demonstrating the potential need / business case, while also testing implementation in real world, high stakes environments. A bartender/service roll is a fun place to test since they can deliver a service in a public setting, potentially tethered to the wall.
  - TheAlchemist 1y ago
    "but it's certainly not a fantasy to eliminate the human driver observation components and just let it rip" Yes it is fantasy. This is the same thing like showing a mockup and saying - okay, that's it, now we 'just' need to implement and make it work. FSD as an ADAS system is fantastic. But it's nowhere near a fully autonomous driving.

ivape 1y ago

Two years ago Elon actually sounded a warning about Dojo. I recall him mentioning this in an earnings call: “And we’re pursuing the dual path of Nvidia and Dojo. But I would think of Dojo as a long shot. It’s a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it’s not something that is a high probability. It’s not like a sure thing at all. It’s a high‑risk, high‑payoff program. Dojo is working, and it is doing training jobs, and we are scaling it up, and we have plans for Dojo 1.5, Dojo 2, Dojo 3, and whatnot. So I think it’s got potential, but I can’t emphasize enough: high risk, high payoff.” https://thetranscript.net/transcript/5550/tesla-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript https://thetranscript.net/transcript/5550/tesla-q4-2023-earn... In other words, he admitted it’s a long shot to replace Nvidia with their own chip awhile ago. It’s interesting because Google hasn’t given up on their TPUs, but Elon being a hardware guy mostly, has.

kranke155 1y ago
I doubt Elon had the time or the inclination to build yet another hardware stack, and he probably saw something that showed him he couldn’t quite catch up to Nvidia? The scale of Nvidia manufacturing and RnD should be staggering atm. Google built the entire software and hardware stack for TPUs before the AI boom. I can’t even imagine how hard it would be to hire GPU hardware talent right now.
- bubblethink 1y ago
  Really hard to do training hardware as the software stack is quite complex and needs to be general and flexible. Inference on the other hand is easier, which is what a lot of new hardware will be. I doubt if it makes sense for Tesla to build hardware for datacenter inference. Xai on the other hand could benefit from it.
mrandish 1y ago
> it’s a long shot to replace Nvidia with their own chip awhile ago It's also worth mentioning that having their own ambitious effort in secret development was a valuable BATNA (negotiating tactic) for long-term contracts with outside suppliers. The value of that recent >$16B deal with Samsung for AI chips thru 2033 may have benefited from the prospect of Dojo as a potential in-house alternative.

bamboozled 1y ago

It’s amazing how people are operating with such immunity. If I lied to my boss like that I suppose I’d just be fired and let go without pay…or would I get promoted ? I’m not into fucking society over like these sociopaths, I guess that’s “my problem”.

enslavedrobot 1y ago

This is what people said in 2018 when the stock was 16$. In case you aren't keeping up Tesla signed a $17billion agreement with Samsung to produce their AI6 chip family which is designed to replace the dojo architecture. It is a harmonized design that can be scaled to training clusters or deployed in edge inference.

moralestapia 1y ago

Another Karpathy initiative that turned out to be utter trash ... https://www.hpcwire.com/2021/06/22/ahead-of-dojo-tesla-reveals-its-massive-precursor-supercomputer/ https://www.hpcwire.com/2021/06/22/ahead-of-dojo-tesla-revea...

DoesntMatter22 1y ago

I don't understand co.ments like this. Clearly they realized that it wasn't worth doing and cut costs accordingly. This seems smart. Companies constantly place bets and adapt when they aren't working out. As far as the ship sinking that's pretty silly. They continue to be profitable with some sectors like energy growing very quickly. Virtually all EV makers have faced a couple of tough years. Many like Rivian and lucid are getting clobbered. Tesla has a 37 billion dollar bank account and low debt. There is no scenario that the ship is sinking

TheAlchemist 1y ago
What I'm pointing to is the absurdity of the situation. It was supposed to be a huge project, valued by some analysts at $600 billions, and years in the making. The CEO himself self recently they are on track to bring it online next year at a huge scale. 2 weeks ago he was still saying it, now it's axed. It was clearly nowhere near where they said it was, or they would have some significant sunk costs and write downs. None of which exist in their financial statements for Dojo. As for the ship sinking - I know it seems like a huge exaggeration now. But it's a car maker, with a collapsing sales and which made virtually all the profits from direct and indirect subsides - which just got axed too. That alone would be very worrying. But it's also a company which sold billions of $ of software that is still not working as advertised and lawsuit are only starting to come in. By their own admission the software won't work on >50% of cars they already sold and they would need to upgrade them 'sometime in the future'. Oh and the CEO is the most hated man in the US currently.
- DoesntMatter22 1y ago
  In 2023 their profit was 15 billion dollars. Of that they got 1.79 billion in regulatory credits. So about 12%. They also made over 15 billion in 2024 of which regulatory credits were 2.7 billion, about %18%. So your claim seems false. https://ycharts.com/indicators/tesla_inc_tsla_automotive_regulatory_credits_revenue https://ycharts.com/indicators/tesla_inc_tsla_automotive_reg... https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials/