3 ms·
> These reduction to absurdity arguments about the temperature of the earth assume we're not going to space. I don't understand why you reject this idea outrigh
by stouset 1y ago
> These reduction to absurdity arguments about the temperature of the earth assume we're not going to space. I don't understand why you reject this idea outright.
Not just going to space, but transitioning to a primarily space-based civilization. We'll need to terraform Mars within 400 years, and even then that will only buy us thirty years of sustained growth. Even if we slow down to 1% growth, once we exhaust Earth, we'll exhaust Earth-2 in just seventy.
Further, this doesn’t actually solve much because all the growth is happening on the outer planets. Earth is definitionally full in this future, so it needs to stay steady-state. Unless we forcibly ship off half the population every doubling period.
Is it going to happen? Maybe. But I'm not sure we should be playing brinksmanship with the one planet we know we've got on the idea that the overwhelming majority of humans will (and must) live in space on every rock in the solar system in the same amount of time it took us to go from the Renaissance to the Internet.
> All the above calculations about the energy available to us are from a tiny pin-prick sliver of how much energy the sun deposits in all directions, every day, all day, for the 4 billion years.
Exponential growth is a bitch. In roughly the same time it took us to go from the dark ages to now, we'll need to be consuming 100% of the sun's total energy output.
I think it's far more likely that either:
a) we won't stop using more energy and literally cook ourselves off the planet, or
b) we'll stop exponential growth of energy use
Based on our approach to the economy vs. climate change, I think it's pretty clear which of those two choices humanity will opt for. If we even make it there, thanks to the aforementioned climate change.