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> OpenAI bungling its 15-month product lead Do you mean from ChatGPT launch or o1 launch? Curious to get your take on how they bungled the lead and what they c

> OpenAI bungling its 15-month product lead Do you mean from ChatGPT launch or o1 launch? Curious to get your take on how they bungled the lead and what they could have done differently to preserve it. Not having thought about it too much, it seems that with the combo of 1) massive hype required for fundraising, and 2) the fact that their product can be basically reverse engineered by training a model on its curated output, it would have been near impossible to maintain a large lead.

j_timberlake 1y ago
My 2 cents: ChatGPT -> Gemini 1 was their 15-month lead. The moment ChatGPT threatened Google's future Search revenue (which never actually took a hit afaik), Google reacted by merging Deepmind and Google Brain and kicked off the Gemini program (that's why they named it Gemini). Basically, OpenAI poked a sleeping bear, then lost all their lead, and are now at risk of being mauled by the bear. My money would be on the bear, except I think the Pentagon is an even bigger sleeping bear, so that's where I would bet money (literally) if I could.
- butlike 1y ago
  Huh. That's interesting. I always thought it was Gemini because it's somewhat useful on one hand, and absolute shit on the other.
- edm0nd 1y ago
  Seems like OpenAI is playing it smart and slow. Slowly entrenching themselves into the US government. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/openai-is-giving-chatgpt-to-the-government-for-1-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/openai-is-giving-chatgpt-to-...
  - j_timberlake 1y ago
    That's probably their best bet, though the other AI companies are shaking hands too: https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-propels-government-into-ai-revolution-with-addition-of-leading-solutions-08052025 https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-prop... Announced exactly 1 day before the $1 thing, to make everything extra muddled. https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-announces-new-partnership-with-openai-delivering-deep-discount-to-chatgpt-08062025 https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-anno...

j_timberlake 1y ago

My 2 cents: ChatGPT -> Gemini 1 was their 15-month lead. The moment ChatGPT threatened Google's future Search revenue (which never actually took a hit afaik), Google reacted by merging Deepmind and Google Brain and kicked off the Gemini program (that's why they named it Gemini). Basically, OpenAI poked a sleeping bear, then lost all their lead, and are now at risk of being mauled by the bear. My money would be on the bear, except I think the Pentagon is an even bigger sleeping bear, so that's where I would bet money (literally) if I could.

butlike 1y ago
Huh. That's interesting. I always thought it was Gemini because it's somewhat useful on one hand, and absolute shit on the other.
edm0nd 1y ago
Seems like OpenAI is playing it smart and slow. Slowly entrenching themselves into the US government. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/openai-is-giving-chatgpt-to-the-government-for-1-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/openai-is-giving-chatgpt-to-...
- j_timberlake 1y ago
  That's probably their best bet, though the other AI companies are shaking hands too: https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-propels-government-into-ai-revolution-with-addition-of-leading-solutions-08052025 https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-prop... Announced exactly 1 day before the $1 thing, to make everything extra muddled. https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-announces-new-partnership-with-openai-delivering-deep-discount-to-chatgpt-08062025 https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-anno...