No, this is below expectations on both Manifold and lesswrong (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/ryan_greenblatt-s-shortform?commentId=6ue8BPWrc

No, this is below expectations on both Manifold and lesswrong (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/ryan_greenblatt-s-shortform?commentId=6ue8BPWrcoa2eGJdP https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/ryan_green...). Median was ~2.75 hours on both (which already represented a bearish slowdown). Not massively off -- manifold yesterday implied odds this low were ~35%. 30% before Claude Opus 4.1 came out which updated expected agentic coding abilities downward.