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I'm curious to see the bubble burst. I personally don't think it will be anything like the dotcom era. The benefits have just not been that wide ranging to th

by jayd16 1y ago

I'm curious to see the bubble burst. I personally don't think it will be anything like the dotcom era. The benefits have just not been that wide ranging to the average person. Maybe I'm wrong but, I don't AI hype as a cornerstone of US jobs, so there's no jobs to suddenly dry up. The big companies are still flush with cash on hand, aren't they? If/when the fad dies I'd think it would die with a wimper.

aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
I think AI has great potential to change as much as the internet. But i dont consider LLMs to be the right type to do that. Self driving cars and intelligent robotics is the real goldmine. But we still don't seem to have the right architecture or methods. I say that because self driving cars are entirely stagnant despite the boom AI interest and resources. Personally i think we need a major breakthrough in reinforcement learning, computer vision (which are still mostly stuck at feed forward CNNs) and few shot learning. The tranformer is a major leap, but its not enough on its own.
- jayd16 1y ago
  I'm not saying things couldn't change. I'm only looking at the landscape as it is now and imagining what would happen if the funding stops because of lack of consumer interest. In general I do not agree that the economy is overleveraged on AI just like it is not overleveraged on cyrpto currency. If the money dries up, I don't expect economy wide layoffs.
  - aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
    If money dries up, a bunch of startups living on speculative assets will trip, and the s&p will fall in evaluation. But that doesn't actually affect the core economy much. I think we're in a massive AI bubble, but its a bubble that doesn't affect normal consumers much, so it's not too dangerous or concerning. As for my prediction of what is needed for truly useful AI automation... i suspect the current bubble will pop before we solve it.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
- nmhancoc 1y ago
  Are self driving cars stagnant? Waymo seems to continue to chug along.
felixfurtak 1y ago
It's definitely more like the railways of the 1880s. Lots of companies, with more-or-less the same product, competing for a highly extrapolated theoretical demand. Out of all that excitement comes an eventual crash and rationalization. Railways today are much more boring, regulated and utilitarian affairs. Many are state owned and still often loss-making.
kevinventullo 1y ago
The benefits have just not been that wide ranging to the average person I think you might be underestimating how many non-technical people are using LLM’s daily.

by jayd16 1y ago

aDyslecticCrow 1y ago

I think AI has great potential to change as much as the internet. But i dont consider LLMs to be the right type to do that. Self driving cars and intelligent robotics is the real goldmine. But we still don't seem to have the right architecture or methods. I say that because self driving cars are entirely stagnant despite the boom AI interest and resources. Personally i think we need a major breakthrough in reinforcement learning, computer vision (which are still mostly stuck at feed forward CNNs) and few shot learning. The tranformer is a major leap, but its not enough on its own.

jayd16 1y ago
I'm not saying things couldn't change. I'm only looking at the landscape as it is now and imagining what would happen if the funding stops because of lack of consumer interest. In general I do not agree that the economy is overleveraged on AI just like it is not overleveraged on cyrpto currency. If the money dries up, I don't expect economy wide layoffs.
- aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
  If money dries up, a bunch of startups living on speculative assets will trip, and the s&p will fall in evaluation. But that doesn't actually affect the core economy much. I think we're in a massive AI bubble, but its a bubble that doesn't affect normal consumers much, so it's not too dangerous or concerning. As for my prediction of what is needed for truly useful AI automation... i suspect the current bubble will pop before we solve it.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
nmhancoc 1y ago
Are self driving cars stagnant? Waymo seems to continue to chug along.

felixfurtak 1y ago

It's definitely more like the railways of the 1880s. Lots of companies, with more-or-less the same product, competing for a highly extrapolated theoretical demand. Out of all that excitement comes an eventual crash and rationalization. Railways today are much more boring, regulated and utilitarian affairs. Many are state owned and still often loss-making.

kevinventullo 1y ago

The benefits have just not been that wide ranging to the average person I think you might be underestimating how many non-technical people are using LLM’s daily.