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Re predicting inflation in particular: we are in a global system with tons of factors which are themselves unpredictable. That doesn't mean that key factors lik
by lanfeust6 1y ago
Re predicting inflation in particular: we are in a global system with tons of factors which are themselves unpredictable. That doesn't mean that key factors like money supply don't have an impact! We don't know what global policymakers will decide and we don't know whether a pandemic is about to break. The global powers spent a fuck-ton and inflation followed, that's about as predictable as it gets. What isn't predictable is how and when that subsides.
Milei's policies curbed hyper-inflation in Argentina. Is that because he's a wizard? Is that because it's impossible to predict that drastically reducing deficit spending would reel in inflation? And if it's so fucking obvious that it would, what's the significance of denying those data points be scientific? They're either valid or not.
The theories that last e.g. supply-and-demand have lasted because they work. Guess what 20th century experiments didn't work?