4 ms·

Well, there’s a fundamental difference: the Internet blew up because it enabled people to connect with each other more easily: culturally, economically, politic

Well, there’s a fundamental difference: the Internet blew up because it enabled people to connect with each other more easily: culturally, economically, politically. AI is more-or-less replacing people, not connecting them. In many cases this is economically valuable, but in others I think it just pushes the human connection into another venue. I wouldn’t be surprised if in-person meetup groups really make a comeback, for example. So if a prediction about AI involves it replacing human cultural activities (say, the idea that YouTube will just be replaced by AI videos and real people will be left out of a job), then I’m quite bearish. People will find other ways to connect with each other instead.

dfedbeef 1y ago
There's also the difference that the internet worked.
- justonceokay 1y ago
  In a classically disruptive way, the internet provided an existing service (information exchange) in a way that was in many ways far less pleasant than existing channels (newspapers, libraries, phone). Remember that the early Internet was mostly text, very low resolution, un credentialed, flaky, expensive, and too technical for most people. The only reason that we can have such nice things today like retina display screens and live video and secure payment processing is because the original Internet provided enough value without these things. In my first and maybe only ever comment on this website defending AI, I do believe that in 30 or 40 years we might see this first wave of generative AI in a similar way to the early Internet.
LinuxAmbulance 1y ago
Businesses are overly optimistic about AI replacing people. For very simple jobs, like working in a call center? Sure. But the vast majority of all jobs aren't ones that AI can replace. Anything that requires any amount of context sensitive human decision making, for example. There's no way that AI can deliver on the hype we have now, and it's going to crash. The only question is how hard - a whimper or a bang?
- SrslyJosh 1y ago
  > For very simple jobs, like working in a call center? Sure. Klarna would like a word. > Anything that requires any amount of context sensitive human decision making, for example. That describes a significant percentage of call center work.
- prewett 1y ago
  As a customer, nothing infurates me like an AI call center. If I have to call, it's because I have an account problem that requires me to speak with someone to resolve it. I moved states and Xfinity was billing me for the month after I cancelled. I called, pressed 5 (or whatever) for billing. "It looks like your cable modem is disconnected. Power-cycling your modem resolves most problems. Would you like to do that now?" No. "Most problems can be resolved by power-cycling your modem, would you like to try that now?" No, my problem is about billing, and my modem is off-line because I CANCELLED MY SERVICE! They asked three more times (for a total of five) before I could progress. For reasons I have now forgot I had to call back several times, going through the whole thing again. There is a name for someone who pays no attention to what you say, and none of them are complimentary. AI is, fundamentally, an inhuman jerk. (It turned out that they can only get their database to update once a month, or something, and despite the fact that nobody could help me, they issued me a refund in a month when their database finally updated. The local people wanted to help, but could not because my new state is in a different region and the regions cannot access each other.)
AlexandrB 1y ago
There's also an element of economic drag caused by AI that did not exist with the internet: for example, the proliferation of slop content and AI-driven scams. The internet did not almost immediately make previous modes of doing business more difficult but instead slowly replaced them with more efficient alternatives. AI has already enshittified things like Google search and product reviews. In many ways AI is undoing some of the gains of the internet without providing a replacement.
gilbetron 1y ago
Connecting to other people, I think, is going to see a surge of desire. I've been feeling it, many I talk to are feeling. One strange piece of anecdata is that I've been working out (with my son) at a gym for the past 3 years, very consistently. Everybody has always just done their thing, almost entirely individuals working out, with a handful of pairs. I'm old, so I remember when working out at gyms would be a much more social situation, but times change. There are a number of regulars that we've seen there for years now. Barely have interacted with them. Suddenly, the past week, through a chance interaction, two of them individually have talked to us and ended up introducing themselves. Plus I see other people talking more and more. I think we've hit a on-your-own saturation point and the pendulum might swing the other way. But I'm really staying away from many "predict the AI future" because we just don't know where it is going. I've read thousands of scifi books and nonfiction and futurist and any number of options are open and no one, and I mean no one, knows what will happen with any kind of certainty.

dfedbeef 1y ago

There's also the difference that the internet worked.

justonceokay 1y ago
In a classically disruptive way, the internet provided an existing service (information exchange) in a way that was in many ways far less pleasant than existing channels (newspapers, libraries, phone). Remember that the early Internet was mostly text, very low resolution, un credentialed, flaky, expensive, and too technical for most people. The only reason that we can have such nice things today like retina display screens and live video and secure payment processing is because the original Internet provided enough value without these things. In my first and maybe only ever comment on this website defending AI, I do believe that in 30 or 40 years we might see this first wave of generative AI in a similar way to the early Internet.

LinuxAmbulance 1y ago

Businesses are overly optimistic about AI replacing people. For very simple jobs, like working in a call center? Sure. But the vast majority of all jobs aren't ones that AI can replace. Anything that requires any amount of context sensitive human decision making, for example. There's no way that AI can deliver on the hype we have now, and it's going to crash. The only question is how hard - a whimper or a bang?

SrslyJosh 1y ago
> For very simple jobs, like working in a call center? Sure. Klarna would like a word. > Anything that requires any amount of context sensitive human decision making, for example. That describes a significant percentage of call center work.
prewett 1y ago
As a customer, nothing infurates me like an AI call center. If I have to call, it's because I have an account problem that requires me to speak with someone to resolve it. I moved states and Xfinity was billing me for the month after I cancelled. I called, pressed 5 (or whatever) for billing. "It looks like your cable modem is disconnected. Power-cycling your modem resolves most problems. Would you like to do that now?" No. "Most problems can be resolved by power-cycling your modem, would you like to try that now?" No, my problem is about billing, and my modem is off-line because I CANCELLED MY SERVICE! They asked three more times (for a total of five) before I could progress. For reasons I have now forgot I had to call back several times, going through the whole thing again. There is a name for someone who pays no attention to what you say, and none of them are complimentary. AI is, fundamentally, an inhuman jerk. (It turned out that they can only get their database to update once a month, or something, and despite the fact that nobody could help me, they issued me a refund in a month when their database finally updated. The local people wanted to help, but could not because my new state is in a different region and the regions cannot access each other.)

AlexandrB 1y ago

There's also an element of economic drag caused by AI that did not exist with the internet: for example, the proliferation of slop content and AI-driven scams. The internet did not almost immediately make previous modes of doing business more difficult but instead slowly replaced them with more efficient alternatives. AI has already enshittified things like Google search and product reviews. In many ways AI is undoing some of the gains of the internet without providing a replacement.

gilbetron 1y ago

Connecting to other people, I think, is going to see a surge of desire. I've been feeling it, many I talk to are feeling. One strange piece of anecdata is that I've been working out (with my son) at a gym for the past 3 years, very consistently. Everybody has always just done their thing, almost entirely individuals working out, with a handful of pairs. I'm old, so I remember when working out at gyms would be a much more social situation, but times change. There are a number of regulars that we've seen there for years now. Barely have interacted with them. Suddenly, the past week, through a chance interaction, two of them individually have talked to us and ended up introducing themselves. Plus I see other people talking more and more. I think we've hit a on-your-own saturation point and the pendulum might swing the other way. But I'm really staying away from many "predict the AI future" because we just don't know where it is going. I've read thousands of scifi books and nonfiction and futurist and any number of options are open and no one, and I mean no one, knows what will happen with any kind of certainty.