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The three body problem means that we cannot predict the future of orbits of planets. Clearly astronomy is a science anyway. Since the economy is made up of ind

The three body problem means that we cannot predict the future of orbits of planets. Clearly astronomy is a science anyway. Since the economy is made up of individuals who make chaotic choices, I think anyone claiming to be able to predict inflation perfectly is a charlatan. Especially since businesses and consumers react to the inflation predictions themselves which make them obsolete the moment they are published.

bigbadfeline 1y ago
> The three body problem means that we cannot predict the future of orbits of planets. Only an economist could write something so far from the truth. Astronomers do predict how everything moves, with great precision. The 3-body problem is unsolvable IN GENERAL aka "it has no general closed-form solution, meaning there is no equation that always solves it" However, all specific REAL cases are solvable, each with their own equations, not by substituting in one general equation. I could say a lot more about it but I know economists only pretend to understand math and I'd be wasting my time. Besides, the contemporary economists specialize in gaslighting shamanism, an example of which is bringing up the 3-body problem into a discussion of the absolute impotence of academia economics compared to "we can do everything" technology fields.
- daedrdev 1y ago
  My point is orbits of planets are not calculable. In only 5 million years in fact they are chaotic! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_time https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_time Thus its easy to imagine inflation not being predictable, especially since the prediction is invalidated when it itself is released since people change their behavior chaotically in response.
  - littlestymaar 1y ago
    > In only 5 million years When economics will be able to give meaningful forecasts just 5 weeks in advance that would be a very massive step forward though. > since the prediction is invalidated when it itself is released since people change their behavior chaotically in response. That's exactly the problem the study of all dynamic systems face, including the n-body problem you mentioned above! Yet with proper models you can get very good approximation as you acknowledge yourself.
    - daedrdev 1y ago
      Let me put it like this: The stock market has a big impact on inflation, since it changes the value of people savings and thus how much they spend. It is impossible to predict what the stock market will do. If you think it is predictable, please go ahead and lose all your money trying to do so. Since the stock market is not predictable, alongside many other things in our economy, and there is inherent error in the economic data collected since we only spend so much on surveys and continuously revise the data as new information arrives, and since we aren't running an authoritarian state that big brothers our citizens, expecting perfect inflation predictions is unrealistic.
      - littlestymaar 1y ago
        Funny how every debate about economics ends up with people dropping a variation of “go beat the stock market if you think you are clever”. It's not an argument, it's just a bad faith shot. Neither you or I can predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas in a jet engine, but it doesn't mean it isn't doable with the right modeling tools, as all the jets flying above your head right now prove. Also, your claim that the stock market has a big influence on inflation is unsubstantiated. Finally, you're fighting a strawman when talking about “perfect” inflation prediction or limited precision in data: nobody is asking for a .1% precision in inflation forecasts (though most economics seem to have a problem understanding the concept of significant figures and keep producing numbers with a ridiculous amount of details relative to the underlying error in the data), but the fact that nobody can predict a surge in inflation before it starts poses serious questions on the usefulness of the models. And don't tell me it was the stock market …
      - bigbadfeline 1y ago
        > It is impossible to predict what the stock market will do. If you think it is predictable, please go ahead and lose all your money trying to do so., Those with insider information beg to differ. The stock portfolios of most in Congress beat Joe Average's by far, and these are people who only get little hints, no more. > and since we aren't running an authoritarian state that big brothers our citizens, However, our citizens are big bordered by private entities, and that results in a government blindsided by them. > The stock market has a big impact on inflation, since it changes the value of people savings and thus how much they spend. That's backwards. Fed policies target inflation and the stock market is totally obsessed with them, they drive the market. That is, inflation expectations have a big impact on the stock market via the Fed. Claiming that inflation isn't predictable is a claim that the Fed mandates are fake and all these meetings, market interventions and rate changes are all for naught. In fact, the Fed can control inflation... if they really wanted, if there were no conflicts of interest and if there was no political pressure from the government, war funding, etc.

bigbadfeline 1y ago

> The three body problem means that we cannot predict the future of orbits of planets. Only an economist could write something so far from the truth. Astronomers do predict how everything moves, with great precision. The 3-body problem is unsolvable IN GENERAL aka "it has no general closed-form solution, meaning there is no equation that always solves it" However, all specific REAL cases are solvable, each with their own equations, not by substituting in one general equation. I could say a lot more about it but I know economists only pretend to understand math and I'd be wasting my time. Besides, the contemporary economists specialize in gaslighting shamanism, an example of which is bringing up the 3-body problem into a discussion of the absolute impotence of academia economics compared to "we can do everything" technology fields.

daedrdev 1y ago
My point is orbits of planets are not calculable. In only 5 million years in fact they are chaotic! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_time https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_time Thus its easy to imagine inflation not being predictable, especially since the prediction is invalidated when it itself is released since people change their behavior chaotically in response.
- littlestymaar 1y ago
  > In only 5 million years When economics will be able to give meaningful forecasts just 5 weeks in advance that would be a very massive step forward though. > since the prediction is invalidated when it itself is released since people change their behavior chaotically in response. That's exactly the problem the study of all dynamic systems face, including the n-body problem you mentioned above! Yet with proper models you can get very good approximation as you acknowledge yourself.
  - daedrdev 1y ago
    Let me put it like this: The stock market has a big impact on inflation, since it changes the value of people savings and thus how much they spend. It is impossible to predict what the stock market will do. If you think it is predictable, please go ahead and lose all your money trying to do so. Since the stock market is not predictable, alongside many other things in our economy, and there is inherent error in the economic data collected since we only spend so much on surveys and continuously revise the data as new information arrives, and since we aren't running an authoritarian state that big brothers our citizens, expecting perfect inflation predictions is unrealistic.
    - littlestymaar 1y ago
      Funny how every debate about economics ends up with people dropping a variation of “go beat the stock market if you think you are clever”. It's not an argument, it's just a bad faith shot. Neither you or I can predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas in a jet engine, but it doesn't mean it isn't doable with the right modeling tools, as all the jets flying above your head right now prove. Also, your claim that the stock market has a big influence on inflation is unsubstantiated. Finally, you're fighting a strawman when talking about “perfect” inflation prediction or limited precision in data: nobody is asking for a .1% precision in inflation forecasts (though most economics seem to have a problem understanding the concept of significant figures and keep producing numbers with a ridiculous amount of details relative to the underlying error in the data), but the fact that nobody can predict a surge in inflation before it starts poses serious questions on the usefulness of the models. And don't tell me it was the stock market …
    - bigbadfeline 1y ago
      > It is impossible to predict what the stock market will do. If you think it is predictable, please go ahead and lose all your money trying to do so., Those with insider information beg to differ. The stock portfolios of most in Congress beat Joe Average's by far, and these are people who only get little hints, no more. > and since we aren't running an authoritarian state that big brothers our citizens, However, our citizens are big bordered by private entities, and that results in a government blindsided by them. > The stock market has a big impact on inflation, since it changes the value of people savings and thus how much they spend. That's backwards. Fed policies target inflation and the stock market is totally obsessed with them, they drive the market. That is, inflation expectations have a big impact on the stock market via the Fed. Claiming that inflation isn't predictable is a claim that the Fed mandates are fake and all these meetings, market interventions and rate changes are all for naught. In fact, the Fed can control inflation... if they really wanted, if there were no conflicts of interest and if there was no political pressure from the government, war funding, etc.