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> You’re in a bubble. Sure, all I have to go on from the other side of the Atlantic is the internet. So in that regard, kinda like the AI. One of the big surp

by ben_w 1y ago

> You’re in a bubble. Sure, all I have to go on from the other side of the Atlantic is the internet. So in that regard, kinda like the AI. One of the big surprises from the POV of me in Jan 2024, is that I would have anticipated Trump being in prison and not even available as an option for the Republican party to select as a candidate for office, and that even if he had not gone to jail that the Republicans would not want someone who behaved as he did on Jan 6 2021.

OldfieldFund 1y ago
you can run for presidency from prison :)
- exasperaited 1y ago
  And he would have. And might have won. Because his I'm-the-most-innocent-persecuted-person messaging was clearly landing. I am surprised the grandparent poster didn't think Trump's win was at least entirely possible in January 2024, and I am on the same side of the Atlantic. All the indicators were in place. There was basically no chance he'd actually be in prison by November anyway, because he was doing something else extremely successfully: delaying court cases by playing off his obligations to each of them. Back then I thought his chances of winning were above 60%, and the betting markets were never ever really in favour of him losing.
username332211 1y ago
I'm pretty sure you are completely correct on the last part. Nobody in Republican management wanted a second Trump term. If the candidate wasn't Trump, Republicans would have had a guaranteed victory. Imagine that infamous debate, but with some 50-year-old youngster facing Joe Biden. It's the White House that wanted Trump to be candidate. They played Republican primary voters like a fiddle by launching a barrage of transparently political prosecutions just as Republican primaries were starting. And then they still lost the general election.
- FrustratedMonky 1y ago
  You think the Democratic White House, manipulated Republicans into Voting for Trump. So it is the Democrats fault we have Trump??? Next Level Cope.
  - 9rx 1y ago
    > You think the Democratic White House, manipulated Republicans into Voting for Trump. Yes, that is what he thinks. Did you not read the comment? It is, like, uh, right there... He also explained his reasoning: If Trump didn't win the party race, a more compelling option (the so-called "50-year-old youngster") would have instead, which he claims would have guaranteed a Republican win. In other words, what he is saying that the White House was banking on Trump losing the presidency.
    - FrustratedMonky 1y ago
      "explained his reasoning" Well, I guess, if you are taking some pretty wild speculation as a reasoned explanation. There isn't much hope for you. Maybe it was because the Democrats new the Earth was about the be invaded by an Alien race , and they also knew Trump was actually a lizard person (native to Earth and thus on their joint side). And Trump would be able to defeat them, so using the secret mind control powers, the Democrats were able to sway the election to allow Trump to win and thus use his advanced Lizard technology to save the planet. Of course, this all happened behind the scenes. I think if someone is saying the Democrats are so powerful and skillful, that they can sway the election to give Trump the primary win, but then turn around and lose. That does require some clarification. I'm just hearing a lot of these crazy arguments that somehow everything Trump does is the fault of the Democrats. They are crazy on the face of it. Maybe if people had to clarify their positions they would realize 'oh, yeah, that doesn't make sense'.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - 9rx 1y ago
amalcon 1y ago
I mean, the presumptive GOP primary candidates at the time were Trump, Trump-lite (DeSantis), about 10 Trump sycophants, and Haley. He had demonstrated a high level of influence over GOP primary voters in the 2022 midterm. It had been (internally) obvious since at least then that he was going to win the primary again. I can't speak to how much of that made it across the Atlantic. Whether he would win the general was an open question then. In the American system, your prediction should never get very far from a coin flip a year out.

by ben_w 1y ago

OldfieldFund 1y ago

you can run for presidency from prison :)

exasperaited 1y ago
And he would have. And might have won. Because his I'm-the-most-innocent-persecuted-person messaging was clearly landing. I am surprised the grandparent poster didn't think Trump's win was at least entirely possible in January 2024, and I am on the same side of the Atlantic. All the indicators were in place. There was basically no chance he'd actually be in prison by November anyway, because he was doing something else extremely successfully: delaying court cases by playing off his obligations to each of them. Back then I thought his chances of winning were above 60%, and the betting markets were never ever really in favour of him losing.

username332211 1y ago

I'm pretty sure you are completely correct on the last part. Nobody in Republican management wanted a second Trump term. If the candidate wasn't Trump, Republicans would have had a guaranteed victory. Imagine that infamous debate, but with some 50-year-old youngster facing Joe Biden. It's the White House that wanted Trump to be candidate. They played Republican primary voters like a fiddle by launching a barrage of transparently political prosecutions just as Republican primaries were starting. And then they still lost the general election.

FrustratedMonky 1y ago
You think the Democratic White House, manipulated Republicans into Voting for Trump. So it is the Democrats fault we have Trump??? Next Level Cope.
- 9rx 1y ago
  > You think the Democratic White House, manipulated Republicans into Voting for Trump. Yes, that is what he thinks. Did you not read the comment? It is, like, uh, right there... He also explained his reasoning: If Trump didn't win the party race, a more compelling option (the so-called "50-year-old youngster") would have instead, which he claims would have guaranteed a Republican win. In other words, what he is saying that the White House was banking on Trump losing the presidency.
  - FrustratedMonky 1y ago
    "explained his reasoning" Well, I guess, if you are taking some pretty wild speculation as a reasoned explanation. There isn't much hope for you. Maybe it was because the Democrats new the Earth was about the be invaded by an Alien race , and they also knew Trump was actually a lizard person (native to Earth and thus on their joint side). And Trump would be able to defeat them, so using the secret mind control powers, the Democrats were able to sway the election to allow Trump to win and thus use his advanced Lizard technology to save the planet. Of course, this all happened behind the scenes. I think if someone is saying the Democrats are so powerful and skillful, that they can sway the election to give Trump the primary win, but then turn around and lose. That does require some clarification. I'm just hearing a lot of these crazy arguments that somehow everything Trump does is the fault of the Democrats. They are crazy on the face of it. Maybe if people had to clarify their positions they would realize 'oh, yeah, that doesn't make sense'.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - 9rx 1y ago

amalcon 1y ago

I mean, the presumptive GOP primary candidates at the time were Trump, Trump-lite (DeSantis), about 10 Trump sycophants, and Haley. He had demonstrated a high level of influence over GOP primary voters in the 2022 midterm. It had been (internally) obvious since at least then that he was going to win the primary again. I can't speak to how much of that made it across the Atlantic. Whether he would win the general was an open question then. In the American system, your prediction should never get very far from a coin flip a year out.