4 ms·

Most likely yes, simply by the scale of their industrial base and military strength. No way the US can significantly degrade Chinese industrial base in a war sc

by Thlom 1y ago

Most likely yes, simply by the scale of their industrial base and military strength. No way the US can significantly degrade Chinese industrial base in a war scenario without using massive amounts of nukes and I don't think even Trump is that insane.

energy123 1y ago
This appears to assume a lack of intelligence such that the entire industrial base needs to be targeted. But only a relatively small subtree of the industrial base is relevant, and you don't necessarily need to degrade the whole subtree, it can be sufficient to degrade key nodes that create supply chain bottlenecks. I'm not saying it can be done, but I am unpersuaded that it can't.
- Teever 1y ago
  The problem is that the exact same can be said of the American industrial base and the American industrial base is much smaller than the Chinese one so it would be far easier to wipe out.
  - energy123 1y ago
    Wiped out with what aircraft carriers and with what air superiority? China has limited to no power projection into US mainland aside from ICBMs which are scarce. US has B2 bombers they can send over China. US has multiple nearby countries they can use as a staging ground for their F-16 and F-35s. They can send sorties over and over into China and drop thousands of JDAMs onto selected targets. China can't do anything like that. China's SRBMs and navy and airforce are a threat to Asian countries but not the US.
    - Teever 1y ago
      Recent war games paint a dire picture in a near-term hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan.[0] They show the US tenuously holding Taiwan at the cost of two aircraft carriers, several dozen other ships, hundreds of aircraft and the depletion of hundreds anti-ship missiles that have a production lead time of months to years and measly annual production rates. At the same time China continues to stockpile commodities[1] and holds an overwhelming advantage in ship building production capacity over the US[2]. America may currently have an advantage in power projection over China, but they lack the industrial base to sustain any sort of attack as their ship building and missile building capacity is completely atrophied. China just needs to hold the line in the first conflict with the US and then they can quickly rebuild what they lost and launch barrages of drones at Taiwan. As for how China can disrupt American industrial capacity? At first it will probably be a combination of unorthodox techniques including cyberattacks, agit-prop disruption techniques with social media, 5th column disruption like what we're seeing in Russia, and perhaps more exotic things like autonomous submarines that launch drones to attack infrastructure near the coast, or perhaps more of those balloons that they were using for surveillance but instead of surveillance equipment they'll contain drone swarms to be released over vital infrastructure or tinderbox forests. It is unlikely that America will risk sending any B-52s over China and it's also unlikely that F-35s will pose any long term risk to Chinese industrial capacity given the brittle F-35 supply chain. A war with China will be about whoever can produce more cheap weapons faster while deploying them in unexpected ways and China without a doubt wins that race. [0] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/CSIS%20Simulation%20Results.pdf https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites... [1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/why-is-xi-jinping-building-secret-commodity-stockpiles https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/w... [2] https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-dominates-shipbuilding-industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-dominates-shipbuilding-i...
    - cakealert 1y ago
      Sending B2's over china would be insanely risky. B2 stealth will not serve you in the middle of a sensor (radar) network. And taking it out with radiation seeking missiles may not be a reliable counter. They almost certainly have a network of passive radars and disposable emitters.

by Thlom 1y ago

energy123 1y ago

This appears to assume a lack of intelligence such that the entire industrial base needs to be targeted. But only a relatively small subtree of the industrial base is relevant, and you don't necessarily need to degrade the whole subtree, it can be sufficient to degrade key nodes that create supply chain bottlenecks. I'm not saying it can be done, but I am unpersuaded that it can't.

Teever 1y ago
The problem is that the exact same can be said of the American industrial base and the American industrial base is much smaller than the Chinese one so it would be far easier to wipe out.
- energy123 1y ago
  Wiped out with what aircraft carriers and with what air superiority? China has limited to no power projection into US mainland aside from ICBMs which are scarce. US has B2 bombers they can send over China. US has multiple nearby countries they can use as a staging ground for their F-16 and F-35s. They can send sorties over and over into China and drop thousands of JDAMs onto selected targets. China can't do anything like that. China's SRBMs and navy and airforce are a threat to Asian countries but not the US.
  - Teever 1y ago
    Recent war games paint a dire picture in a near-term hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan.[0] They show the US tenuously holding Taiwan at the cost of two aircraft carriers, several dozen other ships, hundreds of aircraft and the depletion of hundreds anti-ship missiles that have a production lead time of months to years and measly annual production rates. At the same time China continues to stockpile commodities[1] and holds an overwhelming advantage in ship building production capacity over the US[2]. America may currently have an advantage in power projection over China, but they lack the industrial base to sustain any sort of attack as their ship building and missile building capacity is completely atrophied. China just needs to hold the line in the first conflict with the US and then they can quickly rebuild what they lost and launch barrages of drones at Taiwan. As for how China can disrupt American industrial capacity? At first it will probably be a combination of unorthodox techniques including cyberattacks, agit-prop disruption techniques with social media, 5th column disruption like what we're seeing in Russia, and perhaps more exotic things like autonomous submarines that launch drones to attack infrastructure near the coast, or perhaps more of those balloons that they were using for surveillance but instead of surveillance equipment they'll contain drone swarms to be released over vital infrastructure or tinderbox forests. It is unlikely that America will risk sending any B-52s over China and it's also unlikely that F-35s will pose any long term risk to Chinese industrial capacity given the brittle F-35 supply chain. A war with China will be about whoever can produce more cheap weapons faster while deploying them in unexpected ways and China without a doubt wins that race. [0] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/CSIS%20Simulation%20Results.pdf https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites... [1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/why-is-xi-jinping-building-secret-commodity-stockpiles https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/w... [2] https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-dominates-shipbuilding-industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-dominates-shipbuilding-i...
  - cakealert 1y ago
    Sending B2's over china would be insanely risky. B2 stealth will not serve you in the middle of a sensor (radar) network. And taking it out with radiation seeking missiles may not be a reliable counter. They almost certainly have a network of passive radars and disposable emitters.