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> the same reason india and brazil did not. India's issues with the US are for completely separate reason. Bihar elections are coming up in 2 months [2]. Any
by alephnerd 1y ago
> the same reason india and brazil did not.
India's issues with the US are for completely separate reason.
Bihar elections are coming up in 2 months [2]. Any incumbent government in India can't give trade concessions on agriculture during peak campaigning season in a swing state that can impact elections in 2-3 additional states as well as the general election in 4 years.
The main Indian exports to the US (pharma, electronics, and services) are all tariff exempted so the economic pain is marginal.
The only export that's hurt is textiles, but frankly, textile workers don't matter in Indian elections, especially when most of them leave for 3-4 months each year to work on the family farm and get social benefits based on their agrarian status and voter rolls that they never updated.
Realistically, India and US will sign a deal either after the Bihar elections, or after making ag/dairy a separate track from the rest of the deal.
Trump needs to keep the cheeseheads of Wisconsin happy just like the NDA needs to keep Bihari farmers happy through direct subsidizes [0] and hardline agriculture policies [1], hence why both the US and India will maintain maximalist positions on agriculture and dairy.
My hunch is a comprehensive deal will be announced during the election media blackout in the run-up of the Bihar elections or shortly after the election.
[0] - https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narendra-modi-in-bihar/article69257763.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narend...
[1] - https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/why-makhana-board-bihar-decisive-move-assembly-election-year-9812318/ https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/why-makhan...
[2] - https://www.eci.gov.in/election-symbol-details/2066 https://www.eci.gov.in/election-symbol-details/2066