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tsmc(taiwan) will blink for the same reason europe did and japan did, and for the same reason india and brazil did not. when you take a step back and look at t

tsmc(taiwan) will blink for the same reason europe did and japan did, and for the same reason india and brazil did not. when you take a step back and look at the deal breakdown, this is protection money not a trade negotiation.

alephnerd 1y ago
> the same reason india and brazil did not. India's issues with the US are for completely separate reason. Bihar elections are coming up in 2 months [2]. Any incumbent government in India can't give trade concessions on agriculture during peak campaigning season in a swing state that can impact elections in 2-3 additional states as well as the general election in 4 years. The main Indian exports to the US (pharma, electronics, and services) are all tariff exempted so the economic pain is marginal. The only export that's hurt is textiles, but frankly, textile workers don't matter in Indian elections, especially when most of them leave for 3-4 months each year to work on the family farm and get social benefits based on their agrarian status and voter rolls that they never updated. Realistically, India and US will sign a deal either after the Bihar elections, or after making ag/dairy a separate track from the rest of the deal. Trump needs to keep the cheeseheads of Wisconsin happy just like the NDA needs to keep Bihari farmers happy through direct subsidizes [0] and hardline agriculture policies [1], hence why both the US and India will maintain maximalist positions on agriculture and dairy. My hunch is a comprehensive deal will be announced during the election media blackout in the run-up of the Bihar elections or shortly after the election. [0] - https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narendra-modi-in-bihar/article69257763.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narend... [1] - https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/why-makhana-board-bihar-decisive-move-assembly-election-year-9812318/ https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/why-makhan... [2] - https://www.eci.gov.in/election-symbol-details/2066 https://www.eci.gov.in/election-symbol-details/2066
thisisit 1y ago
Different countries have different considerations. Most of these "deals" aren't deals and rather frameworks. And given the tumultuous nature of bilateral trade where countries might not follow on their promises. Happens all the time and countries end up arguing at the WTO. So, it is hard to say whether Europe or Japan "blinked". Given the timing of the European deal it might be to help Trump so that he does not have egg on his face for not having 200 deals by 1st August. India wants to cozy up to US and was one of the first countries to start trade negotiation. Trump-Modi dynamic has been good. The sticking point is agriculture and dairy. Both countries subsidize agriculture and diary. And in both countries farmers form a big chunk of politically aware voters. For the Indian government it is political suicide to even nod along like Japan and Europe. But if you hear Trump he keeps saying it is about Russian oil. Brazil might have the same issue. Historically, US was the largest soyabeans exporter. But last time Trump got into a trade war with China, the country has moved away from US exports and started buying from China. So, again even the appearance of a deal might be problematic for the government. And reading this side by side, maybe US farmers are not that economically aware?

alephnerd 1y ago

> the same reason india and brazil did not. India's issues with the US are for completely separate reason. Bihar elections are coming up in 2 months [2]. Any incumbent government in India can't give trade concessions on agriculture during peak campaigning season in a swing state that can impact elections in 2-3 additional states as well as the general election in 4 years. The main Indian exports to the US (pharma, electronics, and services) are all tariff exempted so the economic pain is marginal. The only export that's hurt is textiles, but frankly, textile workers don't matter in Indian elections, especially when most of them leave for 3-4 months each year to work on the family farm and get social benefits based on their agrarian status and voter rolls that they never updated. Realistically, India and US will sign a deal either after the Bihar elections, or after making ag/dairy a separate track from the rest of the deal. Trump needs to keep the cheeseheads of Wisconsin happy just like the NDA needs to keep Bihari farmers happy through direct subsidizes [0] and hardline agriculture policies [1], hence why both the US and India will maintain maximalist positions on agriculture and dairy. My hunch is a comprehensive deal will be announced during the election media blackout in the run-up of the Bihar elections or shortly after the election. [0] - https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narendra-modi-in-bihar/article69257763.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narend... [1] - https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/why-makhana-board-bihar-decisive-move-assembly-election-year-9812318/ https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/why-makhan... [2] - https://www.eci.gov.in/election-symbol-details/2066 https://www.eci.gov.in/election-symbol-details/2066

thisisit 1y ago

Different countries have different considerations. Most of these "deals" aren't deals and rather frameworks. And given the tumultuous nature of bilateral trade where countries might not follow on their promises. Happens all the time and countries end up arguing at the WTO. So, it is hard to say whether Europe or Japan "blinked". Given the timing of the European deal it might be to help Trump so that he does not have egg on his face for not having 200 deals by 1st August. India wants to cozy up to US and was one of the first countries to start trade negotiation. Trump-Modi dynamic has been good. The sticking point is agriculture and dairy. Both countries subsidize agriculture and diary. And in both countries farmers form a big chunk of politically aware voters. For the Indian government it is political suicide to even nod along like Japan and Europe. But if you hear Trump he keeps saying it is about Russian oil. Brazil might have the same issue. Historically, US was the largest soyabeans exporter. But last time Trump got into a trade war with China, the country has moved away from US exports and started buying from China. So, again even the appearance of a deal might be problematic for the government. And reading this side by side, maybe US farmers are not that economically aware?