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> There could be a crash that exceeds the dot com bust, at a time when the political situation through which such a crash would be navigated would be nightmaris

> There could be a crash that exceeds the dot com bust, at a time when the political situation through which such a crash would be navigated would be nightmarish. If the general theme of this article is right (that it's a bubble soon to burst), I'm less concerned about the political environment and more concerned about the insane levels of debt. If AI is indeed the thing propping up the economy, when that busts, unless there are some seriously unpopular moves made (Volcker level interest rates, another bailout leading to higher taxes, etc), then we're heading towards another depression. Likely one that makes the first look like a sideshow. The only thing preventing that from coming true IMO is dollar hegemony (and keeping the world convinced that the world's super power having $37T of debt and growing is totally normal if you'd just accept MMT).

Hikikomori 1y ago
Ai bubble, economy in the trash already, inflation from tariffs. Dollar might get real cheap when big holders start selling stocks and exchanging it, nobody wants to be left holding their bag, and they have a lot of dollars. Which is their (Thiel, project2025, etc) plan, federal land will be sold for cheap.
- decimalenough 1y ago
  Selling stocks for what? If the dollar is going down the toilet, the last thing you want to have is piles of rapidly evaporating cash.
  - marcusestes 1y ago
    Never totally discount _deflationary_ scenarios.
    - heathrow83829 1y ago
      based on my understanding of what all the financial pros are saying: they'll never let that happen. they'll inflate away to the moon before they allow for a deflationary bust. that's why everyone's in equities in the first place. it's almost insured, at this point.
      - immibis 1y ago
        They've been trying. ZIRP was a whole decade of giving unlimited free money to the rich and it still didn't work. Free money to the poor would raise inflation but they'd never do that because the poor would have more money.
  - piva00 1y ago
    For other currencies, sell stocks, get USD, sell USD to buy currencies appreciating over the USD. It's already happening, past 6 months USD has been losing value against EUR, CHF, GBP, even BRL and almost flat against the JPY which was losing a ton of value the past years.
margalabargala 1y ago
> Likely one that makes the first look like a sideshow. The first Great Depression was pretty darn bad, I'm not at all convinced that this hypothetical one would be worse.
- agent_turtle 1y ago
  Some of the variables that made the Great Depression what it was included very high tariff rates and lack of quality federal oversight. Today, we have the highest tariffs since right before the Great Depression, with the added bonus of economic uncertainty because our current tariff rates change on a near daily basis. Add in meme stocks, AI bubble, crypto, attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and a decreasing trust in federal economic data, and you can make the case that things could get pretty ugly.
  - margalabargala 1y ago
    Sure, you can make the case that things could get pretty ugly. You could even make the case that things could get about as bad as the Great Depression. But for things to be much worse than the Great Depression, I think is an extraordinary claim. I see the ingredients for a Great Depression-scale event, but not for a much-worse-than-Great-Depression event.
    - ronald_raygun 1y ago
      Throw some nukes and a war over Taiwan into the mix?
    - BLKNSLVR 1y ago
      How much worse could it be if the President was likely to fire the individual holding the position responsible for announcing "it's official, this is a recession"? And so on in that head-in-the-sand direction for as long as their loyalists are willing and able to defend the Presidents proclamations of fake news? How long will the foot stay on the accelerator after (almost literally) everyone else knows we might be in a bit of strife here? If the US can put off the depression for the next three years then it has a much better chance of working it's way out gracefully.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
Gabriel_Martin 1y ago
MMT is just a description of the monetary reality we're in. If everything changed, the new reality would be MMT.
BLKNSLVR 1y ago
I'm currently reading The Mandibles[0], which is feeling increasingly inevitably prophetic. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles

Hikikomori 1y ago

Ai bubble, economy in the trash already, inflation from tariffs. Dollar might get real cheap when big holders start selling stocks and exchanging it, nobody wants to be left holding their bag, and they have a lot of dollars. Which is their (Thiel, project2025, etc) plan, federal land will be sold for cheap.

decimalenough 1y ago
Selling stocks for what? If the dollar is going down the toilet, the last thing you want to have is piles of rapidly evaporating cash.
- marcusestes 1y ago
  Never totally discount _deflationary_ scenarios.
  - heathrow83829 1y ago
    based on my understanding of what all the financial pros are saying: they'll never let that happen. they'll inflate away to the moon before they allow for a deflationary bust. that's why everyone's in equities in the first place. it's almost insured, at this point.
    - immibis 1y ago
      They've been trying. ZIRP was a whole decade of giving unlimited free money to the rich and it still didn't work. Free money to the poor would raise inflation but they'd never do that because the poor would have more money.
- piva00 1y ago
  For other currencies, sell stocks, get USD, sell USD to buy currencies appreciating over the USD. It's already happening, past 6 months USD has been losing value against EUR, CHF, GBP, even BRL and almost flat against the JPY which was losing a ton of value the past years.

margalabargala 1y ago

> Likely one that makes the first look like a sideshow. The first Great Depression was pretty darn bad, I'm not at all convinced that this hypothetical one would be worse.

agent_turtle 1y ago
Some of the variables that made the Great Depression what it was included very high tariff rates and lack of quality federal oversight. Today, we have the highest tariffs since right before the Great Depression, with the added bonus of economic uncertainty because our current tariff rates change on a near daily basis. Add in meme stocks, AI bubble, crypto, attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and a decreasing trust in federal economic data, and you can make the case that things could get pretty ugly.
- margalabargala 1y ago
  Sure, you can make the case that things could get pretty ugly. You could even make the case that things could get about as bad as the Great Depression. But for things to be much worse than the Great Depression, I think is an extraordinary claim. I see the ingredients for a Great Depression-scale event, but not for a much-worse-than-Great-Depression event.
  - ronald_raygun 1y ago
    Throw some nukes and a war over Taiwan into the mix?
  - BLKNSLVR 1y ago
    How much worse could it be if the President was likely to fire the individual holding the position responsible for announcing "it's official, this is a recession"? And so on in that head-in-the-sand direction for as long as their loyalists are willing and able to defend the Presidents proclamations of fake news? How long will the foot stay on the accelerator after (almost literally) everyone else knows we might be in a bit of strife here? If the US can put off the depression for the next three years then it has a much better chance of working it's way out gracefully.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

Gabriel_Martin 1y ago

MMT is just a description of the monetary reality we're in. If everything changed, the new reality would be MMT.

BLKNSLVR 1y ago

I'm currently reading The Mandibles[0], which is feeling increasingly inevitably prophetic. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles