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With this administration, it's probably just more blackmail, in the form of "it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiw

by ezst 1y ago

With this administration, it's probably just more blackmail, in the form of "it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! (Not that playing ball is a guarantee of anything either)".

bit1993 1y ago
> it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! Wouldn't that just mean that Taiwan has to choose between two villains, and China can take the advantage of this by changing its narrative and taking the position as a hero, protecting Taiwan from the US.
- jfengel 1y ago
  Taiwan really, really does not want to be part of China. Or rather, they see themselves as the legitimate government of China, which is undergoing a temporary Communist junta. The separation was extremely violent. I mean, you saw the Three Body Problem. The US fosters this, to retain a toehold there. Taiwan doesn't exactly love us for it, but they know which side their bread is buttered on.
  - wahern 1y ago
    > they see themselves as the legitimate government of China No, they don't. But formally renouncing that position[1] makes them officially secessionist in the eyes of Chinese conservatives, adding pressure to invade. The One China fiction matters, though how much it matters is definitely up for debate. But it's a local minima, and rolling the dice comes with significant risk. [1] At the state level. AFAIU, it's been renounced by several of the major parties in Taiwan, and when in power they've made movements at low levels of government that arguably contravene the policy. But it still remains the official position and its still enshrined in the Taiwanese constitution. And, yes, the US adds pressure to maintain the status quo as it would (might?[2]) be on the hook for the defense of Taiwan. But the majority of the population isn't in favor of formally renouncing it, either; the potential negative consequences are existential, and the material benefit is slim to none. [2] During Trump's first term it was claimed he privately admitted that if China invaded Taiwan he wouldn't intervene.
ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
This isn't blackmail. A security guarantee has value. Exactly what value is hard to say since the US is the only credible seller of such guarantees in this world order
- krior 1y ago
  *the US WAS the only credible seller
- throw9394944 1y ago
  Until you change president... Iran made several security deals with US...
- Tadpole9181 1y ago
  Like with Ukraine? Like with Iran? The US has proven its word is literally worthless and beholden to the whims of a dictator. At this point, Taiwan would be foolish to not start working on a secret nuclear bomb program. North Korea has proven its the only way to actually protect yourself.
  - jamiek88 1y ago
    Yep. Nukes for Taiwan is the only solution. Nuclear proliferation and subsequent war is inevitable imo.
    - shkkmo 1y ago
      I'm pretty sure giving nukes to Taiwan would be seen as an act of war by China.
      - mullingitover 1y ago
        No need to give them. TW can absolutely make them on their own, in fact they had at least one active project to do that and were forced to stop by the US. I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised to learn they have a few MIRVs stashed away, pointed at Beijing, just in case.
Dr4kn 1y ago
Every promise of this administration is worthless, so why even bother? Either they protect you, because they don't want the chip tech to fall to China or they don't. Buying half of Intel isn't going to change anything
- ethbr1 1y ago
  The meta of Trump mercurialness is convincing counterparties they should do whatever they can to make him happy, even on unrelated matters. I think it's a braindead, 4th-grade way to run international negotiations, but it is a way.
  - dmix 1y ago
    People will forever take every bluff and proposition at face value though so it gets exhausting following online discourse, where everyone is trying to rationalize it at face value or spinning it into some grander conspiratorial geopolitical scheme. Doesn’t seem to matter how many times the outcome is dramatically different than the starting point with Trump, people want to believe and that’s what Trump hopes they do to get what he wants (basically some marginal gains through intimidation but largely what one could achieve through more traditional civil approaches when negotiating from a power position).
    - ethbr1 1y ago
      Exactly. I've made the case before that while it may be a temporarily winning approach in business (aside from becoming persona non grata with most banks' risk departments), it's a losing strategy in international geopolitics. Because counterparty countries will still exist, you'll need to make future deals, and they'll remember the last time you fucked them over.

by ezst 1y ago

bit1993 1y ago

> it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! Wouldn't that just mean that Taiwan has to choose between two villains, and China can take the advantage of this by changing its narrative and taking the position as a hero, protecting Taiwan from the US.

jfengel 1y ago
Taiwan really, really does not want to be part of China. Or rather, they see themselves as the legitimate government of China, which is undergoing a temporary Communist junta. The separation was extremely violent. I mean, you saw the Three Body Problem. The US fosters this, to retain a toehold there. Taiwan doesn't exactly love us for it, but they know which side their bread is buttered on.
- wahern 1y ago
  > they see themselves as the legitimate government of China No, they don't. But formally renouncing that position[1] makes them officially secessionist in the eyes of Chinese conservatives, adding pressure to invade. The One China fiction matters, though how much it matters is definitely up for debate. But it's a local minima, and rolling the dice comes with significant risk. [1] At the state level. AFAIU, it's been renounced by several of the major parties in Taiwan, and when in power they've made movements at low levels of government that arguably contravene the policy. But it still remains the official position and its still enshrined in the Taiwanese constitution. And, yes, the US adds pressure to maintain the status quo as it would (might?[2]) be on the hook for the defense of Taiwan. But the majority of the population isn't in favor of formally renouncing it, either; the potential negative consequences are existential, and the material benefit is slim to none. [2] During Trump's first term it was claimed he privately admitted that if China invaded Taiwan he wouldn't intervene.

ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago

This isn't blackmail. A security guarantee has value. Exactly what value is hard to say since the US is the only credible seller of such guarantees in this world order

krior 1y ago
*the US WAS the only credible seller
throw9394944 1y ago
Until you change president... Iran made several security deals with US...
Tadpole9181 1y ago
Like with Ukraine? Like with Iran? The US has proven its word is literally worthless and beholden to the whims of a dictator. At this point, Taiwan would be foolish to not start working on a secret nuclear bomb program. North Korea has proven its the only way to actually protect yourself.
- jamiek88 1y ago
  Yep. Nukes for Taiwan is the only solution. Nuclear proliferation and subsequent war is inevitable imo.
  - shkkmo 1y ago
    I'm pretty sure giving nukes to Taiwan would be seen as an act of war by China.
    - mullingitover 1y ago
      No need to give them. TW can absolutely make them on their own, in fact they had at least one active project to do that and were forced to stop by the US. I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised to learn they have a few MIRVs stashed away, pointed at Beijing, just in case.

Dr4kn 1y ago

Every promise of this administration is worthless, so why even bother? Either they protect you, because they don't want the chip tech to fall to China or they don't. Buying half of Intel isn't going to change anything

ethbr1 1y ago
The meta of Trump mercurialness is convincing counterparties they should do whatever they can to make him happy, even on unrelated matters. I think it's a braindead, 4th-grade way to run international negotiations, but it is a way.
- dmix 1y ago
  People will forever take every bluff and proposition at face value though so it gets exhausting following online discourse, where everyone is trying to rationalize it at face value or spinning it into some grander conspiratorial geopolitical scheme. Doesn’t seem to matter how many times the outcome is dramatically different than the starting point with Trump, people want to believe and that’s what Trump hopes they do to get what he wants (basically some marginal gains through intimidation but largely what one could achieve through more traditional civil approaches when negotiating from a power position).
  - ethbr1 1y ago
    Exactly. I've made the case before that while it may be a temporarily winning approach in business (aside from becoming persona non grata with most banks' risk departments), it's a losing strategy in international geopolitics. Because counterparty countries will still exist, you'll need to make future deals, and they'll remember the last time you fucked them over.