4 ms·
As expected we’re getting closer and closer to the Trough of Disillusionment. That’s not a bad thing, because it leads to the Plateau of Productivity.[1] Anecd
by yakattak 1y ago
As expected we’re getting closer and closer to the Trough of Disillusionment. That’s not a bad thing, because it leads to the Plateau of Productivity.[1]
Anecdotally for myself I’m finding that LLMs are great when I can give it a hyper specific target like a function to write. This isn’t because it can’t write an entire script. It can. It’s because the more I let it run wild, it feels like my understanding of the code gets exponentially worse.
1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle
- mutkach 1y agoGrowing disillusionment among programmers (whose productivity gains, by the way, represent the most successful use case for AI yet) is indeed not necessarily a bad thing. What is concerning is that VCs seem to believe we are still in the exponential growth phase of the hype cycle. I believe the consensus among them (and the bigtech-adjacent shills) is that they are targeting a trillion-dollar market at minimum. Somehow.
- jononor 1y agoWhy is that concerning? The VCs job is to sell to the bigger fool. They are going to pump that narrative for years, so that they can make some exits. Regardless of underlying realism.
- Nullabillity 1y agoWhere's the NFT plateau of productivity? Asbestos? Lead? The Gartner model doesn't actually have anything to say about technology, it's just astrology for rich people.