> I think it's harder to apply to software since there are more unknowns (or the unknowns are fatter-tailed) Talking purely in agile software development, ther

> I think it's harder to apply to software since there are more unknowns (or the unknowns are fatter-tailed) Talking purely in agile software development, there is an idea of "Flow Metrics" [1] to use for estimation, basically boiling it down to "How many stories can we finish in the next timeframe (Sprint or whatever), and what is the uncertainty associated with this number?" I really like the idea, but haven't been able yet to test it. [1]: https://www.prokanban.org/scrum-flow-metrics https://www.prokanban.org/scrum-flow-metrics