5 ms·

"The overwhelming success of Apple’s iPhone 4S has finally hit a lull" - about 2 weeks before it's due to be replaced as the flagship iPhone. The iPhone purchas

"The overwhelming success of Apple’s iPhone 4S has finally hit a lull" - about 2 weeks before it's due to be replaced as the flagship iPhone. The iPhone purchasing cycle is very cyclical - huge sales after the new model is introduced, gradually declining up to the next model (which repeats the cycle). It would surprise me if the S3 hadn't taken the lead over the summer.

bornhuetter 14y ago
Yeah, the article is nonsense. The linked chart is still intersting though. I'm surprised that the Galaxy S2 is still #3 on T-Mobile.
- nirvana 14y ago
  The chart is derived from nonsense too. The article is sourced from an "Analyst". Analyst is a fancy title for a pundit who is paid to have an opinion by some industry figure. In this case, most likely Samsung. These analysts post "reports" that show the company is winning, and the company uses those reports to try and drum up sales. Meanwhile the "analysts" send press releases to blogs who then report the results as if they were fact like this. It is usually only years later (if ever) that the real results come out. Only Apple reports its iPhone unit sales. Samsung, for instance, does not. It wasn't until the lawsuit with Apple that they were forced to give up these numbers, and they were very anemic. (while at the time "analysts" were saying they were kicking butt.) This is just hype being spread by a blog that is trying to make it look like android is "winning". None of the android makers report real sales numbers, including Amazon (so we don't know how many fires have been sold, whether it is a success or not.)
  - vitriolix 14y ago
    Keep telling yourself that. Yes, the industry plays number games, but when the multiple different indicators from many different analysts and direct numbers from retailers and actual usage numbers all point in the same direction, you can go ahead and call the trend.
    - tobylane 14y ago
      The trend of many people with a deep vested interest is to lie?
      - astrodust 14y ago
        It would explain why Jim Cramer is so consistently wrong.
- Steko 14y ago
  I don't find the lede here unreasonable. However a couple of nitpicks: The linked chart and article both imply these are only for sales at carrier stores. i.e. not including Apple Store sales which are significant and Samsung has no equivalent for. Accurately weighting ranked charts with no numbers attached can be unreliable. Further the people on commission at carrier stores have an incentive in promoting devices that put more money in their pockets, making verbal sources like this even less reliable.
MatthewPhillips 14y ago
Has this ever happened in previous years (before new iPhone releases)?
- delinka 14y ago
  Yes. Every year. Edit: archgrove speaks of the pre-release lull, not the competitor's sales figures. By 'this' MatthewPhillips can only be referring to the lull. If MatthewPhillips had meant SIII sales numbers, he should have clarified the antecedent of his pronoun. Ergo, sp332 is still correct that this is the first time a competitor has outsold iPhone and I am still correct that this lull happens every year - these facts are not mutually exclusive.
  - freyr 14y ago
    Really?
    - delinka 14y ago
      Yes. Really.
      - freyr 14y ago
        Nope.
  - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
    This person says otherwise: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4479366 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4479366 Not sure who to believe, anyone have some old links by chance?
  - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
    The 'this' I was referring to was the subject of the article (which was iPhone being outsold by a single handset). Being correct shouldn't always be the goal in discussion, by the way.
sev 14y ago
> The iPhone purchasing cycle is very cyclical I agree. It's also very critical. What we need is a competitor to time-strategize and release a competitive handset at the same time as the iPhone flagship so that consumers don't have a clear choice. We keep giving Apple the all-clear to continue with it's vicious cycle.
- wmf 14y ago
  Nokia and Motorola are announcing phones today; it's not clear when they'll be released but at least the marketing will be out there.
jkaljundi 14y ago
As long as the new iPhone will have a pretty tiny screen as the leaks say, the large screen Android phones will keep outselling it even more.
- CamperBob2 14y ago
  Agreed. It's occurred to me that the only way that Apple will retain me as an iPhone user is if they copy Samsung this time around. iOS offers a great UX, as far as the system software is concerned, but I honestly think the iPhone 4/4s has the worst physical ergonomics of any phone I've owned. Everything they could have done wrong, they did wrong... and I won't lie: the fact that nobody but me ever says anything like that makes me wonder what's wrong with my judgment. If the new iPhone actually turns out to be a taller (?!) version of the same package and sales don't drop off a cliff as a result, I'm in for some serious cognitive dissonance.
  - katabatic 14y ago
    I'm having some serious cognitive dissonance over your comment. You're saying that if apple does not change the form factor of the best selling phone on the planet, sales will "drop off a cliff"? Solely on the basis of your personal screen size preference?
    - CamperBob2 14y ago
      Yes. I am fairly sure that most people do not want a taller iPhone. They want a wider one, as evidenced by the success of the S3 and other larger smartphones... to say nothing of design principles based on aesthetic proportions that go all the way back to the ancient Greeks. I have no idea what I would do with a taller iPhone 4S, other than complain about how I still have to spin it around to orient it properly 75% of the time when I pull it out of my pocket, and about how its display is still too narrow to be used safely for navigation and music playback in my car. If I'm wrong, and there is a huge unmet market demand for an iPhone that is taller than a 4/4S but no wider, it will mean that I have no insight or understanding of the smartphone market as a whole, no product-design sensibility to speak of, and that I need to STFU and stop complaining. Nobody likes to be confronted with their own poor judgment, right?

bornhuetter 14y ago

Yeah, the article is nonsense. The linked chart is still intersting though. I'm surprised that the Galaxy S2 is still #3 on T-Mobile.

nirvana 14y ago
The chart is derived from nonsense too. The article is sourced from an "Analyst". Analyst is a fancy title for a pundit who is paid to have an opinion by some industry figure. In this case, most likely Samsung. These analysts post "reports" that show the company is winning, and the company uses those reports to try and drum up sales. Meanwhile the "analysts" send press releases to blogs who then report the results as if they were fact like this. It is usually only years later (if ever) that the real results come out. Only Apple reports its iPhone unit sales. Samsung, for instance, does not. It wasn't until the lawsuit with Apple that they were forced to give up these numbers, and they were very anemic. (while at the time "analysts" were saying they were kicking butt.) This is just hype being spread by a blog that is trying to make it look like android is "winning". None of the android makers report real sales numbers, including Amazon (so we don't know how many fires have been sold, whether it is a success or not.)
- vitriolix 14y ago
  Keep telling yourself that. Yes, the industry plays number games, but when the multiple different indicators from many different analysts and direct numbers from retailers and actual usage numbers all point in the same direction, you can go ahead and call the trend.
  - tobylane 14y ago
    The trend of many people with a deep vested interest is to lie?
    - astrodust 14y ago
      It would explain why Jim Cramer is so consistently wrong.
Steko 14y ago
I don't find the lede here unreasonable. However a couple of nitpicks: The linked chart and article both imply these are only for sales at carrier stores. i.e. not including Apple Store sales which are significant and Samsung has no equivalent for. Accurately weighting ranked charts with no numbers attached can be unreliable. Further the people on commission at carrier stores have an incentive in promoting devices that put more money in their pockets, making verbal sources like this even less reliable.

MatthewPhillips 14y ago

Has this ever happened in previous years (before new iPhone releases)?

delinka 14y ago
Yes. Every year. Edit: archgrove speaks of the pre-release lull, not the competitor's sales figures. By 'this' MatthewPhillips can only be referring to the lull. If MatthewPhillips had meant SIII sales numbers, he should have clarified the antecedent of his pronoun. Ergo, sp332 is still correct that this is the first time a competitor has outsold iPhone and I am still correct that this lull happens every year - these facts are not mutually exclusive.
- freyr 14y ago
  Really?
  - delinka 14y ago
    Yes. Really.
    - freyr 14y ago
      Nope.
- MatthewPhillips 14y ago
  This person says otherwise: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4479366 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4479366 Not sure who to believe, anyone have some old links by chance?
- MatthewPhillips 14y ago
  The 'this' I was referring to was the subject of the article (which was iPhone being outsold by a single handset). Being correct shouldn't always be the goal in discussion, by the way.

sev 14y ago

> The iPhone purchasing cycle is very cyclical I agree. It's also very critical. What we need is a competitor to time-strategize and release a competitive handset at the same time as the iPhone flagship so that consumers don't have a clear choice. We keep giving Apple the all-clear to continue with it's vicious cycle.

wmf 14y ago
Nokia and Motorola are announcing phones today; it's not clear when they'll be released but at least the marketing will be out there.

jkaljundi 14y ago

As long as the new iPhone will have a pretty tiny screen as the leaks say, the large screen Android phones will keep outselling it even more.

CamperBob2 14y ago
Agreed. It's occurred to me that the only way that Apple will retain me as an iPhone user is if they copy Samsung this time around. iOS offers a great UX, as far as the system software is concerned, but I honestly think the iPhone 4/4s has the worst physical ergonomics of any phone I've owned. Everything they could have done wrong, they did wrong... and I won't lie: the fact that nobody but me ever says anything like that makes me wonder what's wrong with my judgment. If the new iPhone actually turns out to be a taller (?!) version of the same package and sales don't drop off a cliff as a result, I'm in for some serious cognitive dissonance.
- katabatic 14y ago
  I'm having some serious cognitive dissonance over your comment. You're saying that if apple does not change the form factor of the best selling phone on the planet, sales will "drop off a cliff"? Solely on the basis of your personal screen size preference?
  - CamperBob2 14y ago
    Yes. I am fairly sure that most people do not want a taller iPhone. They want a wider one, as evidenced by the success of the S3 and other larger smartphones... to say nothing of design principles based on aesthetic proportions that go all the way back to the ancient Greeks. I have no idea what I would do with a taller iPhone 4S, other than complain about how I still have to spin it around to orient it properly 75% of the time when I pull it out of my pocket, and about how its display is still too narrow to be used safely for navigation and music playback in my car. If I'm wrong, and there is a huge unmet market demand for an iPhone that is taller than a 4/4S but no wider, it will mean that I have no insight or understanding of the smartphone market as a whole, no product-design sensibility to speak of, and that I need to STFU and stop complaining. Nobody likes to be confronted with their own poor judgment, right?