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Right so a single example proves your point and destroys the entire concept of trendlines. We should stop the use of trendlines immediately. Why don’t you take
by ninetyninenine 1y ago
Right so a single example proves your point and destroys the entire concept of trendlines. We should stop the use of trendlines immediately.
Why don’t you take a more realistic look at it. Trendlines predict things. They don’t guarantee things.
You want to make a prediction based off of bullshit? Or if you want to make a prediction based off of a trendline. I pick the later. You pick the former because of one example.
- ryandrake 1y agoThere are many, many real world examples where past performance is not indicative of future results.
- ninetyninenine 1y agoOf course there are. Because nothing goes up the line forever. Eventually any real world line actually ends. Nothing in the real world actually obeys the equation of a line to infinite. This happens to every fucking line in existence. So why do trend-lines even exist? Why don’t we flex some of those common sense muscles. If we know that locally we are on a line, and we know that the trend obeyed that of a line or upward trend -x units into the past. The most probable bet is to say that the line will obey the trend +x units into the future. The more data and the less noise we have on the past trend makes predicted future trend more likely. This is The data driven logic, no way around this other then using your gut to say random contrary shit. My claim is given all the information we have the best most probable bet is AI will follow the trend it followed in the past. And your bet is that it won’t and you didn’t even supply any qualitative evidence for why not. You just cited common trope quotes from investing without nuance. You realize that value investing on the index sp500 is a trendline based bet?