4 ms·

> they don't actually build enough homes. France hasn't had above-replacement fertility since 1980 [1], so it seems strange their housing supply would be stres

> they don't actually build enough homes. France hasn't had above-replacement fertility since 1980 [1], so it seems strange their housing supply would be stressed. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033137/fertility-rate-france-1800-2020/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033137/fertility-rate-f...

vladvasiliu 1y ago
Sure, but there are different things that tend to drive up demand, such as immigration and an increase in lifespan (or whatever happened that made the population increase despite below-replacement fertility [0]), fewer people living together, and people using homes as an investment/store of value without actually living there. Although for the specific case of Paris proper (not the whole region), population has actually decreased in recent years. But there also seem to be fewer people per dwelling. See [1] for some interesting graphs. Unfortunately it's French, but Google Translate should do a good enough job. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/459939/population-france/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/459939/population-france... [1] https://www.paris.fr/pages/le-boom-des-logements-vacants-accroit-la-baisse-de-la-population-a-paris-29748 https://www.paris.fr/pages/le-boom-des-logements-vacants-acc...
mschuster91 1y ago
The problem is rural flight, across the Western societies. Rural areas have a lot of empty housing, urban areas have a severe shortage that sends purchase and rental prices through the roof. Defenders of urbanism and dense settlements in general love to point out that it is more efficient to serve urban populations with infrastructure, which is true, but completely neglecting the fact that it creates an insane wealth disparity in these urban areas (aka, those who have housing and those who have not), a corresponding death of rental markets (old people can't move out to smaller dwellings because an apartment half the size costs thrice the money or more, and young people with families can't afford sizing up either), and a massive financial pressure on local governments to build out all the infrastructure that dense settlement needs.
- tpm 1y ago
  It's not just Western societies, it's an issue across the globe. But then it does not begin with rural flight, that's only the consequence of.. I don't know, there is not enough opportunity/resources for people on the land. And that's happenning since the start of industrialisation, as Marx noticed, and then he wrote Communist Manifesto when he wanted to build industry outside of the cities but that was tried and didn't work, some communist leaders even sent people from cities into the countryside to 'reeducate', that didn't work either. So everyone is moving into the cities (or to the nearby suburbia) and there is no remedy, even WFH doesn't really solve this. Anyway just wanted to note there is no known policy that would stop rural flight.
  - mschuster91 1y ago
    > Anyway just wanted to note there is no known policy that would stop rural flight. Actually, there is. Industry steering politics... Look at Eastern Germany for example. After the 90s people fled in droves (and neo-Nazis moved in to pursue their dreams of "national befreite Zonen" settlements that they couldn't have in Western Germany), but "Silicon Saxony" is a lighthouse that attracts industries and talent from all over the world, even if Intel's fab plans shattered due to Intel's often-described internal issues. The thing is, for this to work, governments and especially their politicians have to be willing to think decades in the future - and they have to put money where their mouth is, and build the surrounding infrastructure as well: roads, rail, high speed internet, schools and universities. That, however, is where many Western governments utterly and completely failed ever since Thatcher and the emergence of rabid unchecked capitalism, tax races to the bottom, "trickle down" and "small state" ideology. When the government doesn't have funds to invest into developing the industries of the future, you'll get the issues that almost all Western societies have. China in contrast has used the shitload of money they got from the Western countries over the last quarter century (when they joined the WTO) to do exactly this. For all that I hate the CCP for various reasons, their way of thinking in five-year plans plus even longer macroeconomic planning has proven to be incredibly successful.
    - tpm 1y ago
missedthecue 1y ago
Decreasing birth rates do not help housing prices, they worsen it. Because people retreat into major cities as the populations shrinks. Spain, Italy, Japan, and Korea have extremely low birth rates, and their countrysides are full of $20k houses, all of which are overpriced. Meanwhile, Madrid, Rome, Tokyo, and Seoul are more expensive than they've ever been.

vladvasiliu 1y ago

Sure, but there are different things that tend to drive up demand, such as immigration and an increase in lifespan (or whatever happened that made the population increase despite below-replacement fertility [0]), fewer people living together, and people using homes as an investment/store of value without actually living there. Although for the specific case of Paris proper (not the whole region), population has actually decreased in recent years. But there also seem to be fewer people per dwelling. See [1] for some interesting graphs. Unfortunately it's French, but Google Translate should do a good enough job. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/459939/population-france/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/459939/population-france... [1] https://www.paris.fr/pages/le-boom-des-logements-vacants-accroit-la-baisse-de-la-population-a-paris-29748 https://www.paris.fr/pages/le-boom-des-logements-vacants-acc...

mschuster91 1y ago

The problem is rural flight, across the Western societies. Rural areas have a lot of empty housing, urban areas have a severe shortage that sends purchase and rental prices through the roof. Defenders of urbanism and dense settlements in general love to point out that it is more efficient to serve urban populations with infrastructure, which is true, but completely neglecting the fact that it creates an insane wealth disparity in these urban areas (aka, those who have housing and those who have not), a corresponding death of rental markets (old people can't move out to smaller dwellings because an apartment half the size costs thrice the money or more, and young people with families can't afford sizing up either), and a massive financial pressure on local governments to build out all the infrastructure that dense settlement needs.

tpm 1y ago
It's not just Western societies, it's an issue across the globe. But then it does not begin with rural flight, that's only the consequence of.. I don't know, there is not enough opportunity/resources for people on the land. And that's happenning since the start of industrialisation, as Marx noticed, and then he wrote Communist Manifesto when he wanted to build industry outside of the cities but that was tried and didn't work, some communist leaders even sent people from cities into the countryside to 'reeducate', that didn't work either. So everyone is moving into the cities (or to the nearby suburbia) and there is no remedy, even WFH doesn't really solve this. Anyway just wanted to note there is no known policy that would stop rural flight.
- mschuster91 1y ago
  > Anyway just wanted to note there is no known policy that would stop rural flight. Actually, there is. Industry steering politics... Look at Eastern Germany for example. After the 90s people fled in droves (and neo-Nazis moved in to pursue their dreams of "national befreite Zonen" settlements that they couldn't have in Western Germany), but "Silicon Saxony" is a lighthouse that attracts industries and talent from all over the world, even if Intel's fab plans shattered due to Intel's often-described internal issues. The thing is, for this to work, governments and especially their politicians have to be willing to think decades in the future - and they have to put money where their mouth is, and build the surrounding infrastructure as well: roads, rail, high speed internet, schools and universities. That, however, is where many Western governments utterly and completely failed ever since Thatcher and the emergence of rabid unchecked capitalism, tax races to the bottom, "trickle down" and "small state" ideology. When the government doesn't have funds to invest into developing the industries of the future, you'll get the issues that almost all Western societies have. China in contrast has used the shitload of money they got from the Western countries over the last quarter century (when they joined the WTO) to do exactly this. For all that I hate the CCP for various reasons, their way of thinking in five-year plans plus even longer macroeconomic planning has proven to be incredibly successful.
  - tpm 1y ago

missedthecue 1y ago

Decreasing birth rates do not help housing prices, they worsen it. Because people retreat into major cities as the populations shrinks. Spain, Italy, Japan, and Korea have extremely low birth rates, and their countrysides are full of $20k houses, all of which are overpriced. Meanwhile, Madrid, Rome, Tokyo, and Seoul are more expensive than they've ever been.