4 ms·

> Stable, long term tariffs. Well, you have to start somewhere. > We’re seeing historic falls in manufacturing employment for a reason. In your opinion, what

> Stable, long term tariffs. Well, you have to start somewhere. > We’re seeing historic falls in manufacturing employment for a reason. In your opinion, what is this reason?

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> you have to start somewhere There has been no start. You don’t build a factory because the President announced a tariff that he is also negotiating a trade deal around. > what is this reason? I’m remodelling my deck. I had orders into a steel mill in Utah. Tariffs mean their steel inputs are pricer than competitors in Vietnam. So I switched the order. And I paid with a cheque—if I paid cash I could skip taxes altogether. That wasn’t a thing six months ago. Meanwhile, software and services aren’t tariffed. Just goods. Guess whose cost of capital has sunk.
- reliabilityguy 1y ago
  > There has been no start. You don’t build a factory because the President announced a tariff that he is also negotiating a trade deal around. You absolutely do once the math of tariffs makes your manufacturing abroad not competitive with onshored one. Will it apply for all categories of products? Probably not. However, it will definitely apply for many. I am not sure I understood your reply about the reasons.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > absolutely do once the math of tariffs makes your manufacturing abroad not competitive with onshored one If someone bet on e.g. our Japan tariffs three months ago, they lost money. (Nobody did. The types that take Trump at his word on tariffs aren’t making economically significant decisions.)
    - reliabilityguy 1y ago
      I do not know why anyone would bet that the executive order defined tariffs would stay. It was and still clear as a day that Trump uses them to force people to the negotiation table. Obviously, negotiated deal may look different. Regardless, tariffs as an instrument have their merit with Trump or without Trump. Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it.
      - gambiting 1y ago
        >>Regardless, tariffs as an instrument have their merit with Trump or without Trump. Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it. Well no. Not really. Not for everything anyway. Some things like electronics - sure, but it's a matter of national security not economy - it doesn't have to make financial sense, it just has to exist so that the country can have that ability no matter what happens. As a simple(and really oversimplified) example - let's say that tariffs force clothes manufacturers to bring tshirt making back to the States. The $5 T-Shirt now costs $30 due to tarrifs. So ok, someone makes a factory in US because now it makes sense, employs american workers, pays them good wage - ok, now they make t-shirts cost $20 because they are made domestically. Cool - that's great, but now the rest of the world still buys $5 tshirts, while Americans buy $20 ones that can't even be exported anywhere because why would anyone buy them if they have cheaper alternatives. All you've done is you increased the cost of your products to the american consumers. Some can argue - ok, that doesn't matter, what matters is that manufacturing is now back in the states and american people have employment. And sure, there is merit to that argument - but it reminds me of how my own country used to work under communist rule, people would go "comrade party leader, people have no jobs", "ok, we'll build a factory here so you can have jobs". Can the factory make anything that is actually worth making? Doesn't matter, what matters is that people got jobs and "manufacturing is happening here" - for an economy based on capitalist principles, that sounds like a disaster for US. But hey, what do I know. Just an external observer.
        reliabilityguy 1y ago
        > Well no. Not really. Not for everything anyway. So, you and I are in agreement that for some things it makes sense, right? Both strategically, and economically.

> Stable, long term tariffs. Well, you have to start somewhere. > We’re seeing historic falls in manufacturing employment for a reason. In your opinion, what is this reason?

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> you have to start somewhere There has been no start. You don’t build a factory because the President announced a tariff that he is also negotiating a trade deal around. > what is this reason? I’m remodelling my deck. I had orders into a steel mill in Utah. Tariffs mean their steel inputs are pricer than competitors in Vietnam. So I switched the order. And I paid with a cheque—if I paid cash I could skip taxes altogether. That wasn’t a thing six months ago. Meanwhile, software and services aren’t tariffed. Just goods. Guess whose cost of capital has sunk.

reliabilityguy 1y ago
> There has been no start. You don’t build a factory because the President announced a tariff that he is also negotiating a trade deal around. You absolutely do once the math of tariffs makes your manufacturing abroad not competitive with onshored one. Will it apply for all categories of products? Probably not. However, it will definitely apply for many. I am not sure I understood your reply about the reasons.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > absolutely do once the math of tariffs makes your manufacturing abroad not competitive with onshored one If someone bet on e.g. our Japan tariffs three months ago, they lost money. (Nobody did. The types that take Trump at his word on tariffs aren’t making economically significant decisions.)
  - reliabilityguy 1y ago
    I do not know why anyone would bet that the executive order defined tariffs would stay. It was and still clear as a day that Trump uses them to force people to the negotiation table. Obviously, negotiated deal may look different. Regardless, tariffs as an instrument have their merit with Trump or without Trump. Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it.
    - gambiting 1y ago
      >>Regardless, tariffs as an instrument have their merit with Trump or without Trump. Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it. Well no. Not really. Not for everything anyway. Some things like electronics - sure, but it's a matter of national security not economy - it doesn't have to make financial sense, it just has to exist so that the country can have that ability no matter what happens. As a simple(and really oversimplified) example - let's say that tariffs force clothes manufacturers to bring tshirt making back to the States. The $5 T-Shirt now costs $30 due to tarrifs. So ok, someone makes a factory in US because now it makes sense, employs american workers, pays them good wage - ok, now they make t-shirts cost $20 because they are made domestically. Cool - that's great, but now the rest of the world still buys $5 tshirts, while Americans buy $20 ones that can't even be exported anywhere because why would anyone buy them if they have cheaper alternatives. All you've done is you increased the cost of your products to the american consumers. Some can argue - ok, that doesn't matter, what matters is that manufacturing is now back in the states and american people have employment. And sure, there is merit to that argument - but it reminds me of how my own country used to work under communist rule, people would go "comrade party leader, people have no jobs", "ok, we'll build a factory here so you can have jobs". Can the factory make anything that is actually worth making? Doesn't matter, what matters is that people got jobs and "manufacturing is happening here" - for an economy based on capitalist principles, that sounds like a disaster for US. But hey, what do I know. Just an external observer.
      - reliabilityguy 1y ago
        > Well no. Not really. Not for everything anyway. So, you and I are in agreement that for some things it makes sense, right? Both strategically, and economically.