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Alternatively, he wants someone at the top who will create an organization that does not have to repeatedly restate massively incorrect numbers.
by koolba 1y ago
Alternatively, he wants someone at the top who will create an organization that does not have to repeatedly restate massively incorrect numbers.
- shmerl 1y agoOr rather not mention them at all. He'd rather not bring attention to the topic to begin with.
- amanaplanacanal 1y agoNah, if the numbers make him look great he'd be all over it.
- magic_man 1y agoThe numbers get better as they get more data.
- mh- 1y agoWhy not wait to release them until enough data has come in that it's settled? Serious question, what's the downside?
- altcognito 1y agoBecause the market values the early results and has an adult understanding of what the numbers mean.
- csb6 1y agoBecause the law requires them to release reports on certain dates, so they do so and then make corrections as more data comes in.
- mh- 1y agoThanks.
- kergonath 1y agoIt’s never settled as the data is never perfectly accurate or exhaustive. We just have to do with the caveats and understand that perfection does not exist, even if you have more data than you can handle. That’s what error bars, uncertainty analysis, and confidence intervals are for.
- keeda 1y agoSuch an organization cannot exist. These agencies are always balancing two opposing forces, timeliness and accuracy. Data collection is inherently delayed (e.g. a lot of it is from surveys that businesses complete at their own speed, or from reports that each state/agency submits on their own timeline.) So collection for a given quarter typically completes long after the quarter is over, and then it takes some time to crunch those numbers. So if you want early data it will inherently be of limited accuracy because that involves a lot of extrapolation with whatever incomplete data has been collected by that time. If you want accurate data you will have to wait for it because that data takes longer to be collected. You do want both because you need to make timely decisions, since most times the early numbers don't get revised by much, but you also want to course-correct when later, better data gives a different signal. Agencies like the BLS publish their methodologies in great detail. Big revisions have always been happening, only they are getting more attention these days because of the heavy politicization.
- mensetmanusman 1y agoThey shouldn’t announce until it’s accurate then?
- PieTime 1y agoUnless they are accurate most of the time, I would agree with this.
- keeda 1y agoThat's where the timeliness versus accuracy trade-off comes in. There is significant value in having an early signal to act on, especially as long as there is awareness of its limitations. And as I mentioned, this data does come with very clearly documented caveats and methodologies so that users can make informed decisions.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 1y agoNormally they're accurate enough, and the revisions/refinements are small. The initial estimates haven't been accurate recently, because many workers have been completely dropping out of the economy because they're afraid of immigration raids. Information about these workers is just harder to gather and takes longer to verify.
- altcognito 1y agoHow massively incorrect are the numbers in comparison to previous years? Was it anything unusual? Here, take a look for yourself: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#2024 https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#2024 If this is an understood part of the process, why is it such a problem now? Name some organizations that have "fire employees until we get success". Does that create a culture that prizes success, or just encourage employees to hide failure?
- EndsOfnversion 1y agoI think you understand how labor statistics work about as well as Trump.