4 ms·

> Yeah we all know Claude Code isn’t going to generate a $10 billion SaaS with a team of 10 people… Not trying to argue, since I don’t have counter evidence, b

by yumraj 1y ago

> Yeah we all know Claude Code isn’t going to generate a $10 billion SaaS with a team of 10 people… Not trying to argue, since I don’t have counter evidence, but how can you be so sure?

stickfigure 1y ago
I think it's some variation of the efficient markets hypothesis. There are no problems that are both that lucrative and that easy to solve; if they existed, they would get dogpiled and stop being lucrative. Even in this day and age, $10B of revenue is an incredibly high bar. On the other hand, $10B as valuation (not revenue) just requires a greater fool. Maybe it's possible, but I doubt there are too many of those fools available.
- yumraj 1y ago
  Yeah, $10B revenue is insane. I interpreted the parent as saying $10B valuation.
akra 1y ago
The question is not whether you can or can't, but whether it is still worth it long term: - There is a moat of doing so (i.e. will people actually pay for your SaaS knowing that they could do it too via AI) and.. - How many large scale ideas do you need post AI? Many SaaS products are subscription based and loaded with features you don't need. Most people would prefer a simple product that just does what they need without the ongoing costs. There will be more software. The question is who accrues the economic value of this additional software - the SWE/tech industry (incumbent), the AI industry (disruptor?) and/or the consumer. For the SWE's/tech workers it probably isn't what they envisioned when they started/studied for this industry.
- satyrun 1y ago
  It seems obvious to me it is the consumer who will benefit most. I had been thinking of buying an $80 license for a piece of software but ended up knocking off a version in Claude Code over a weekend. It is not even close to something commercial grade that I could sell as a competitor but it is good enough for me to not spend $80 on the license. The huge upside is that I can customize the software in any way I like. I don't care that it isn't maintainable either. Making a new version in ChagGPT5 is going to be my first project. Just like a few hours ago I was thinking how I would like to customize the fitness/calorie tracking app I use. There are so many features I like that would be tightly coupled to my own situation and not a mass market product. This to me seems obvious of what the future of software looks like for everything but mission critical software.
  - throw234234234 1y ago
    This has a lot of future implications for employment in tech of course, architecture/design decisions, etc. Why would a non-tech company use a SaaS when it just AI up something and have 1-2 engineers on the build accountable? Its a lot cheaper and amortisable over many products saving some companies millions. Not just tech implementors but sales staff would be disrupted. Especially when the SaaS is implementing a standard or requires significant customisation anyway. Buy vs build, product vs implementation, it should all change soon - the silver lining in all of this.
margalabargala 1y ago
Because if it's generated by Claude Code, then basically any team of 10 people can make a competing service.

by yumraj 1y ago

> Yeah we all know Claude Code isn’t going to generate a $10 billion SaaS with a team of 10 people… Not trying to argue, since I don’t have counter evidence, but how can you be so sure?

stickfigure 1y ago

I think it's some variation of the efficient markets hypothesis. There are no problems that are both that lucrative and that easy to solve; if they existed, they would get dogpiled and stop being lucrative. Even in this day and age, $10B of revenue is an incredibly high bar. On the other hand, $10B as valuation (not revenue) just requires a greater fool. Maybe it's possible, but I doubt there are too many of those fools available.

yumraj 1y ago
Yeah, $10B revenue is insane. I interpreted the parent as saying $10B valuation.

akra 1y ago

The question is not whether you can or can't, but whether it is still worth it long term: - There is a moat of doing so (i.e. will people actually pay for your SaaS knowing that they could do it too via AI) and.. - How many large scale ideas do you need post AI? Many SaaS products are subscription based and loaded with features you don't need. Most people would prefer a simple product that just does what they need without the ongoing costs. There will be more software. The question is who accrues the economic value of this additional software - the SWE/tech industry (incumbent), the AI industry (disruptor?) and/or the consumer. For the SWE's/tech workers it probably isn't what they envisioned when they started/studied for this industry.

satyrun 1y ago
It seems obvious to me it is the consumer who will benefit most. I had been thinking of buying an $80 license for a piece of software but ended up knocking off a version in Claude Code over a weekend. It is not even close to something commercial grade that I could sell as a competitor but it is good enough for me to not spend $80 on the license. The huge upside is that I can customize the software in any way I like. I don't care that it isn't maintainable either. Making a new version in ChagGPT5 is going to be my first project. Just like a few hours ago I was thinking how I would like to customize the fitness/calorie tracking app I use. There are so many features I like that would be tightly coupled to my own situation and not a mass market product. This to me seems obvious of what the future of software looks like for everything but mission critical software.
- throw234234234 1y ago
  This has a lot of future implications for employment in tech of course, architecture/design decisions, etc. Why would a non-tech company use a SaaS when it just AI up something and have 1-2 engineers on the build accountable? Its a lot cheaper and amortisable over many products saving some companies millions. Not just tech implementors but sales staff would be disrupted. Especially when the SaaS is implementing a standard or requires significant customisation anyway. Buy vs build, product vs implementation, it should all change soon - the silver lining in all of this.

margalabargala 1y ago

Because if it's generated by Claude Code, then basically any team of 10 people can make a competing service.