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Risk is a product of likelihood and potential seriousness of consequences. The reason I consider motorbikes too risky is that the potential seriousness of conse
by frereubu 1y ago
Risk is a product of likelihood and potential seriousness of consequences. The reason I consider motorbikes too risky is that the potential seriousness of consequences is extremely high if you're going at any reasonable speed.
And to flip the presentation of your stat around, that means 40% of motorbike riders have been in an accident. That sounds really high to me given the potential consequences!
- diggan 1y ago> And to flip the presentation of your stat around, that means 40% of motorbike riders have been in an accident. That sounds really high to me given the potential consequences! It sounds scary because it involves every type of accident, even minor ones. Useful to think about how many cars have ever been in accidents too, which should be around the same. The problem with motorcycle accidents is the fatality rates, just as you say, not the percentage of minor+major accidents.
- literalAardvark 1y agoThe seriousness of consequences is very high, but the chance of getting them is reasonable if you're well trained. Consider that: most motorcyclists are there to have fun, so might have high risk behaviours, most motorcyclists are extraordinarily poorly trained, and it's a very high skill cap vehicle that requires ample training even for braking and evasive actions. Also consider that it's a very small vehicle and those evasive actions have a high likelihood of squeezing through and avoiding almost any crash, and that the rider is often not even part of the crash they just slide to a stop.