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They really are burying the lede: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/biggest-job-revisions-since-2020-expose-pitfall-of-economic-data?srnd=home

They really are burying the lede: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/biggest-job-revisions-since-2020-expose-pitfall-of-economic-data?srnd=homepage-americas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/biggest-j... Surely just an innocent mistake...

throw0101d 1y ago
From a related article: > BLS surveys firms in the payrolls survey over the course of three months, gaining a more complete picture as more businesses respond. But a smaller share of firms are responding to the first poll. Initial collection rates have repeatedly slid below 60% in recent months — down from the roughly 70% or more that was the norm before the pandemic. > “The more data you’re missing and comes in later, the higher the odds the revisions will be much larger,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC. “Fifty percent is just not enough.” […] > “We are seeing these cuts to funding for government agencies affect their ability to collect and analyze economic data,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “And for all of the reports that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is conducting, there is likely to be more volatility going forward.” * https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/biggest-job-revisions-since-2020-expose-pitfall-of-economic-data https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2... From William Beach, the Trump-appointed predecessor to the just-fired chief (and Heritage Foundation fellow): > The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read: https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-commissioner-mcentarfers-removal https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-c... * https://twitter.com/BeachWW453/status/1951376029060055506#m https://twitter.com/BeachWW453/status/1951376029060055506#m Beach was on an April 2025 episode from Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, "Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying": > Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly. * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgpqVixeIw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgpqVixeIw * https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/some-of-americas-most-important-economic-data-is-decaying/id1056200096?i=1000705520320 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/some-of-americas-most-... * https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/why-us-labor-statistics-and-other-data-are-deteriorating-jobs-report https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...
gnat 1y ago
Thanks for that. https://archive.is/84YPk https://archive.is/84YPk for folks without a Bloomberg subscription. The jobs data comes from surveys of businesses and consumers. Fewer of each category are responding, continuing a long-term trend of declining response rates. Cuts affect their ability to collect data with about 15% of the sample "suspended" -- i.e. not done "to align survey workload with resource levels" in the words of the announcement linked from the Bloomberg article. > "The more data you’re missing and comes in later, the higher the odds the revisions will be much larger," said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC. "Fifty percent is just not enough."

throw0101d 1y ago

From a related article: > BLS surveys firms in the payrolls survey over the course of three months, gaining a more complete picture as more businesses respond. But a smaller share of firms are responding to the first poll. Initial collection rates have repeatedly slid below 60% in recent months — down from the roughly 70% or more that was the norm before the pandemic. > “The more data you’re missing and comes in later, the higher the odds the revisions will be much larger,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC. “Fifty percent is just not enough.” […] > “We are seeing these cuts to funding for government agencies affect their ability to collect and analyze economic data,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “And for all of the reports that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is conducting, there is likely to be more volatility going forward.” * https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/biggest-job-revisions-since-2020-expose-pitfall-of-economic-data https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2... From William Beach, the Trump-appointed predecessor to the just-fired chief (and Heritage Foundation fellow): > The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read: https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-commissioner-mcentarfers-removal https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-c... * https://twitter.com/BeachWW453/status/1951376029060055506#m https://twitter.com/BeachWW453/status/1951376029060055506#m Beach was on an April 2025 episode from Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, "Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying": > Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly. * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgpqVixeIw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgpqVixeIw * https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/some-of-americas-most-important-economic-data-is-decaying/id1056200096?i=1000705520320 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/some-of-americas-most-... * https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/why-us-labor-statistics-and-other-data-are-deteriorating-jobs-report https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...

gnat 1y ago

Thanks for that. https://archive.is/84YPk https://archive.is/84YPk for folks without a Bloomberg subscription. The jobs data comes from surveys of businesses and consumers. Fewer of each category are responding, continuing a long-term trend of declining response rates. Cuts affect their ability to collect data with about 15% of the sample "suspended" -- i.e. not done "to align survey workload with resource levels" in the words of the announcement linked from the Bloomberg article. > "The more data you’re missing and comes in later, the higher the odds the revisions will be much larger," said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC. "Fifty percent is just not enough."