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Just picking a semi-related stock, NVDA trades at ~30x gross revenue, so a $300B "only" translates into ~$10B in revenue. And OpenAI can ask for a better multip

Just picking a semi-related stock, NVDA trades at ~30x gross revenue, so a $300B "only" translates into ~$10B in revenue. And OpenAI can ask for a better multiplier because I'm sure they're forecasting a ton of growth and a ton of cost savings.

missinglugnut 1y ago
NVDAs valuation is insane. At 30X revenue, they could double sales and reduce expenses to zero and they'd still need a story about future growth to justify the valuation. Consider this: Nvidia doesn't do the manufacturing, just the engineering. If we had AI super intelligence, you'd just need to type "give me CUDA but for AMD" into chatGPT and Nvidia wouldn't be special anymore. Then someone at TSMC could type "design a gpu" and the whole industry above them would be toast. There's no reason to expect an engineering firm to win if AI commoditizes engineering. It's very possible to change the world and lose money doing it.
- vasco 1y ago
  Super intelligence doesn't make it real it just knows how. You can't type "bring me a moon rock" to it.
  - mdaniel 1y ago
    You obviously don't work with the people I work with. They're a lot more convinced that OP's version of reality is coming than yours. Convinced.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - vasco 1y ago
      Anyone can make up an I, Robot movie in their heads. It doesn't make them right. You will never be able to type "bring me a moon rock" and have it happen, AGI or not, in the next hundred years.
epolanski 1y ago
Nvidia: - has absurd gross margin, almost half it's revenue are profits - it has virtually no competition OpenAI's moat does not exist. Even if they had one, all it takes is a competitor to buy out some engineering talent.
- fisherjeff 1y ago
  Sure, but even assuming OpenAI gets to a tamer 20% net margin, 25x earnings wouldn’t be surprising so they’re raising on a projected $60B/yr revenue which might not be where they end up, but doesn’t seem like an unreasonable bet to make.

missinglugnut 1y ago

NVDAs valuation is insane. At 30X revenue, they could double sales and reduce expenses to zero and they'd still need a story about future growth to justify the valuation. Consider this: Nvidia doesn't do the manufacturing, just the engineering. If we had AI super intelligence, you'd just need to type "give me CUDA but for AMD" into chatGPT and Nvidia wouldn't be special anymore. Then someone at TSMC could type "design a gpu" and the whole industry above them would be toast. There's no reason to expect an engineering firm to win if AI commoditizes engineering. It's very possible to change the world and lose money doing it.

vasco 1y ago
Super intelligence doesn't make it real it just knows how. You can't type "bring me a moon rock" to it.
- mdaniel 1y ago
  You obviously don't work with the people I work with. They're a lot more convinced that OP's version of reality is coming than yours. Convinced.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - vasco 1y ago
    Anyone can make up an I, Robot movie in their heads. It doesn't make them right. You will never be able to type "bring me a moon rock" and have it happen, AGI or not, in the next hundred years.

epolanski 1y ago

Nvidia: - has absurd gross margin, almost half it's revenue are profits - it has virtually no competition OpenAI's moat does not exist. Even if they had one, all it takes is a competitor to buy out some engineering talent.

fisherjeff 1y ago
Sure, but even assuming OpenAI gets to a tamer 20% net margin, 25x earnings wouldn’t be surprising so they’re raising on a projected $60B/yr revenue which might not be where they end up, but doesn’t seem like an unreasonable bet to make.