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This mirrors insights from Andrew Ng's recent AI startup talk [1]. I recall he mentions in this video that the new advice they are giving to founders is to thr

This mirrors insights from Andrew Ng's recent AI startup talk [1]. I recall he mentions in this video that the new advice they are giving to founders is to throw away prototypes when they pivot instead of building onto a core foundation. This is because of the effects described in the article. He also gives some provisional numbers (see the section "Rapid Prototyping and Engineering" and slides ~10:30) where he suggests prototype development sees a 10x boost compared to a 30-50% improvement for existing production codebases. This feels vaguely analogous to the switch from "pets" to "livestock" when the industry switched from VMs to containers. Except, the new view is that your codebase is more like livestock and less like a pet. If true (and no doubt this will be a contentious topic to programmers who are excellent "pet" owners) then there may be some advantage in this new coding agent world to getting in on the ground floor and adopting practices that make LLMs productive. 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNJCfif1dPY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNJCfif1dPY

falcor84 1y ago
Great point, but just mentioning (nitpicking?) that I never heard about machines/containers referred to as "livestock", but rather in my milieu it's always "pets" vs "cattle". I now wonder if it's a geographical thing.
- HPsquared 1y ago
  Boxen? (Oxen)
  - bayindirh 1y ago
    AFAIK, Boxen is a permutation of Boxes, not Oxen.
    - mananaysiempre 1y ago
      There seems to be a pattern of humorous plurals in English where by analogy with ox ~ oxen you get -x ~ -xen: boxen, Unixen, VAXen. Before you call this pattern silly, consider that the fairly normal plural “Unices” is by analogy with Latin plurals in -x = -c|s ~ -c|ēs, where I’ve expanded -x into -cs to make it clear that the Latin singular comprises a noun stem ending in -c- and a (nominative) singular ending -s, which does exist in Latin but is otherwise completely nonexistent in English. (This is extra funny for Unix < Unics < Multics.) Analogies are the order of the day in this language.
      - bayindirh 1y ago
        Yeah. After reading your comment, I thought "maybe the Xen hypervisor is named because of this phenomena". "xen" just means "many" in that context. Also, probably because of approaching graybeard territory, Thinking about boxen of VAXen running UNIXen makes me feel warm and fuzzy. :D
- bayindirh 1y ago
  Yeah, the CERN talk* [0] coined the term Pets vs. Cattle analogy, and it was way before VMs were cheap on bare metal. I think the word just evolved as the idea got rooted in the community. We use the same analogy for the last 20 years or so. Provisioning 150 cattle servers take 15 minutes or so, and we can provision a pet in a couple of hours, at most. [0]: https://www.engineyard.com/blog/pets-vs-cattle/ https://www.engineyard.com/blog/pets-vs-cattle/ *: Engine Yard post notes that Microsoft's Bill Baker used the term earlier, though CERN's date (2012) checks out with our effort timeline and how we got started.
  - skmurphy 1y ago
    Randy Bias also claims authorship https://cloudscaling.com/blog/cloud-computing/the-history-of-pets-vs-cattle/ https://cloudscaling.com/blog/cloud-computing/the-history-of... this tweet by Tim Bell seems to indicate shared credit with Bill Baker and Randy Bias https://x.com/noggin143/status/354666097691205633 https://x.com/noggin143/status/354666097691205633 @randybias @dberkholz CERN's presentation of pets and cattle was derived from Randy's (and Bill Baker's previously).
    - bayindirh 1y ago
      I didn't mean to dispute who said it first, but wanted to say that we took the terms from CERN, and we got them around the time of their talk.
  - neom 1y ago
    First time I heard it was from Adrian Cockcroft in... I think 2012, he def was talking about it a lot in 2013/2014, looks like he got it from Bill. https://se-radio.net/2014/12/episode-216-adrian-cockcroft-on-the-modern-cloud-based-platform/ https://se-radio.net/2014/12/episode-216-adrian-cockcroft-on...
lubujackson 1y ago
Oo, the "pets vs. livestock" analogy really works better than the "craftsmen vs. slop-slinger" arguments. Because using an LLM doesn't mean you devalue well-crafted or understandable results. But it does indicate a significant shift in how you view the code itself. It is more about the emotional attachment to code vs. code as a means to an end.
- recursive 1y ago
  I don't think it's exactly emotional attachment. It's the likelihood that I'm going to get an escalated support ticket caused by this particular piece of slop/artisanally-crafted functionality.
  - stillpointlab 1y ago
    Not to slip too far into analogy, but that argument feels a bit like a horse-drawn carriage operator saying he can't wait to pick up all of the stranded car operators when their mechanical contraptions break down on the side of the road. But what happened instead was the creation of a brand new job: the mechanic. I don't have a crystal ball and I can't predict the actual future. But I can see the list of potential futures and I can assign likelihoods to them. And among the potential futures is one where the need for humans to fix the problems created by poor AI coding agents dwindles as the industry completely reshapes itself.
    - recursive 1y ago
      Both can be true. There were probably a significant number of stranded motorists that were rescued by horse-powered conveyance. And eventually cars got more convenient and reliable. I just wouldn't want to be responsible for servicing a guarantee about the reliability of early cars. And I'll feel no sense of vindication if I do get that support case. I will probably just sigh and feel a little more tired.
      - stillpointlab 1y ago
        Yes, the whole point that it is true. But only for a short window. So consider differing perspectives. Like a teenage kid that is hanging around the stables, listening to the veteran coachmen laugh about the new loud, smoky machines. Proudly declaring how they'll be the ones mopping up the mess, picking up the stragglers, cashing it in. The career advice you give to the kid may be different than the advice you'd give to the coachman. That is the context of my post: Andrew Ng isn't giving you advice, he is giving advice to people at the AI school who hope to be the founders of tomorrow. And you are probably mistaken if you think the solution to the problems that arise due to LLMs will result in those kids looking at the past. Just like the ultimate solution to car reliability wasn't a return to horses but rather the invention of mechanics, the solution to problems caused by AI may not be the return to some software engineering past that the old veterans still hold dear.
skmurphy 1y ago
Thanks for pointing this out. I think this is an insightful analogy. We will likely manage generated code in the same way we manage large cloud computing complexes. This probably does not apply to legacy code that has been in use for several years where the production deployment gives you a higher level of confidence (and a higher risk of regression errors with changes). Have you blogged about your insights, the https://stillpointlab.com https://stillpointlab.com site is very sparse as is @stillpointlab
- stillpointlab 1y ago
  I'm currently in build mode. In some sense, my project is the most over complicated blog engine in the history of personal blog engines. I'm literally working on integrating a markdown editor to the project. Once I have the MVP working, I will be working on publishing as a means to dogfood the tool. So, check back soon!
  - skmurphy 1y ago
    Is there a mailing list I can sign up for to be notified. The check back soon protocol reminds me of my youth.
    - stillpointlab 1y ago
      Mailing list is on the roadmap but doesn't exist just yet. What you could do: sign in using one of the OAuth methods, go to the user page and then go to the feedback section. Let me know in a message your email and I'll ping you once the blog is setup. Sorry it is primitive at this stage but I'm prioritizing MVP before marketing.
eikenberry 1y ago
IMO the problem with this pets vs. livestock analogy is that it focuses on the code when the value is really in the writers head. Their understanding and mental model of the code is what matters. AI tools can help with managing the code, helping the writer build their models and express their thoughts, but it has zero impact on where the true value is located.

falcor84 1y ago

Great point, but just mentioning (nitpicking?) that I never heard about machines/containers referred to as "livestock", but rather in my milieu it's always "pets" vs "cattle". I now wonder if it's a geographical thing.

HPsquared 1y ago
Boxen? (Oxen)
- bayindirh 1y ago
  AFAIK, Boxen is a permutation of Boxes, not Oxen.
  - mananaysiempre 1y ago
    There seems to be a pattern of humorous plurals in English where by analogy with ox ~ oxen you get -x ~ -xen: boxen, Unixen, VAXen. Before you call this pattern silly, consider that the fairly normal plural “Unices” is by analogy with Latin plurals in -x = -c|s ~ -c|ēs, where I’ve expanded -x into -cs to make it clear that the Latin singular comprises a noun stem ending in -c- and a (nominative) singular ending -s, which does exist in Latin but is otherwise completely nonexistent in English. (This is extra funny for Unix < Unics < Multics.) Analogies are the order of the day in this language.
    - bayindirh 1y ago
      Yeah. After reading your comment, I thought "maybe the Xen hypervisor is named because of this phenomena". "xen" just means "many" in that context. Also, probably because of approaching graybeard territory, Thinking about boxen of VAXen running UNIXen makes me feel warm and fuzzy. :D
bayindirh 1y ago
Yeah, the CERN talk* [0] coined the term Pets vs. Cattle analogy, and it was way before VMs were cheap on bare metal. I think the word just evolved as the idea got rooted in the community. We use the same analogy for the last 20 years or so. Provisioning 150 cattle servers take 15 minutes or so, and we can provision a pet in a couple of hours, at most. [0]: https://www.engineyard.com/blog/pets-vs-cattle/ https://www.engineyard.com/blog/pets-vs-cattle/ *: Engine Yard post notes that Microsoft's Bill Baker used the term earlier, though CERN's date (2012) checks out with our effort timeline and how we got started.
- skmurphy 1y ago
  Randy Bias also claims authorship https://cloudscaling.com/blog/cloud-computing/the-history-of-pets-vs-cattle/ https://cloudscaling.com/blog/cloud-computing/the-history-of... this tweet by Tim Bell seems to indicate shared credit with Bill Baker and Randy Bias https://x.com/noggin143/status/354666097691205633 https://x.com/noggin143/status/354666097691205633 @randybias @dberkholz CERN's presentation of pets and cattle was derived from Randy's (and Bill Baker's previously).
  - bayindirh 1y ago
    I didn't mean to dispute who said it first, but wanted to say that we took the terms from CERN, and we got them around the time of their talk.
- neom 1y ago
  First time I heard it was from Adrian Cockcroft in... I think 2012, he def was talking about it a lot in 2013/2014, looks like he got it from Bill. https://se-radio.net/2014/12/episode-216-adrian-cockcroft-on-the-modern-cloud-based-platform/ https://se-radio.net/2014/12/episode-216-adrian-cockcroft-on...

lubujackson 1y ago

Oo, the "pets vs. livestock" analogy really works better than the "craftsmen vs. slop-slinger" arguments. Because using an LLM doesn't mean you devalue well-crafted or understandable results. But it does indicate a significant shift in how you view the code itself. It is more about the emotional attachment to code vs. code as a means to an end.

recursive 1y ago
I don't think it's exactly emotional attachment. It's the likelihood that I'm going to get an escalated support ticket caused by this particular piece of slop/artisanally-crafted functionality.
- stillpointlab 1y ago
  Not to slip too far into analogy, but that argument feels a bit like a horse-drawn carriage operator saying he can't wait to pick up all of the stranded car operators when their mechanical contraptions break down on the side of the road. But what happened instead was the creation of a brand new job: the mechanic. I don't have a crystal ball and I can't predict the actual future. But I can see the list of potential futures and I can assign likelihoods to them. And among the potential futures is one where the need for humans to fix the problems created by poor AI coding agents dwindles as the industry completely reshapes itself.
  - recursive 1y ago
    Both can be true. There were probably a significant number of stranded motorists that were rescued by horse-powered conveyance. And eventually cars got more convenient and reliable. I just wouldn't want to be responsible for servicing a guarantee about the reliability of early cars. And I'll feel no sense of vindication if I do get that support case. I will probably just sigh and feel a little more tired.
    - stillpointlab 1y ago
      Yes, the whole point that it is true. But only for a short window. So consider differing perspectives. Like a teenage kid that is hanging around the stables, listening to the veteran coachmen laugh about the new loud, smoky machines. Proudly declaring how they'll be the ones mopping up the mess, picking up the stragglers, cashing it in. The career advice you give to the kid may be different than the advice you'd give to the coachman. That is the context of my post: Andrew Ng isn't giving you advice, he is giving advice to people at the AI school who hope to be the founders of tomorrow. And you are probably mistaken if you think the solution to the problems that arise due to LLMs will result in those kids looking at the past. Just like the ultimate solution to car reliability wasn't a return to horses but rather the invention of mechanics, the solution to problems caused by AI may not be the return to some software engineering past that the old veterans still hold dear.

skmurphy 1y ago

Thanks for pointing this out. I think this is an insightful analogy. We will likely manage generated code in the same way we manage large cloud computing complexes. This probably does not apply to legacy code that has been in use for several years where the production deployment gives you a higher level of confidence (and a higher risk of regression errors with changes). Have you blogged about your insights, the https://stillpointlab.com https://stillpointlab.com site is very sparse as is @stillpointlab

stillpointlab 1y ago
I'm currently in build mode. In some sense, my project is the most over complicated blog engine in the history of personal blog engines. I'm literally working on integrating a markdown editor to the project. Once I have the MVP working, I will be working on publishing as a means to dogfood the tool. So, check back soon!
- skmurphy 1y ago
  Is there a mailing list I can sign up for to be notified. The check back soon protocol reminds me of my youth.
  - stillpointlab 1y ago
    Mailing list is on the roadmap but doesn't exist just yet. What you could do: sign in using one of the OAuth methods, go to the user page and then go to the feedback section. Let me know in a message your email and I'll ping you once the blog is setup. Sorry it is primitive at this stage but I'm prioritizing MVP before marketing.

eikenberry 1y ago

IMO the problem with this pets vs. livestock analogy is that it focuses on the code when the value is really in the writers head. Their understanding and mental model of the code is what matters. AI tools can help with managing the code, helping the writer build their models and express their thoughts, but it has zero impact on where the true value is located.