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We are past the "peak of inflated expectations" and entering the "trough of disillusionment" - which are the gartner hype-cycle phases for any new tech [1]. Jus

We are past the "peak of inflated expectations" and entering the "trough of disillusionment" - which are the gartner hype-cycle phases for any new tech [1]. Just for reference (and whether you agree with it or not) the phases are 1) innovation, 2) peak of inflated expectations, 3) trough of disillusionment, 4) enlightenment and finally 5) plateau Of course, stack-overflow has every incentive to push this narrative, which the LLM makers will counter vigorously. The end-consumers (developers) will be the jury. [1] https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/hype-cycle-for-artificia...

AIPedant 1y ago
The core issue with the Gartner hype cycle (beyond it not being a cycle!) is that it simply does not apply to "any new tech," tautologically it only applies to hype-driven tech with staying power. Tech which is not driven by hype (e.g. mRNA vaccines driven by urgent need) don't have a trough of disappointment, just a steady slope upwards. And tech which is driven entirely by hype (Theranos) stays in the trough of disappointment forever. The Gartner hype cycle is astrology for MBAs: it cannot fail, it can only be failed by those lacking faith to see its wisdom.
- chuckadams 1y ago
  I'm a bit amused to learn that the term "Gartner Hype Cycle" is actually some official term from Gartner. I always thought it was a tongue-in-cheek reference to the fact that Gartner is at is core a hype merchant. Reality laps satire once again.
- devenson 1y ago
  mRNA could be said to be in the trough of disillusionment -- didn't prevent COVID as initially promised, and has problems like causing heart damage in rare cases. This disillusionment is evidenced by lower proportion of people seeking to take such injections now.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - AIPedant 1y ago
    The trough of disillusionment really refers to serious analysis of a technology's problems, not idiotic conspiracy theories spread on Twitter. This is like saying 5G entered the trough of disillusionment because of the threat of telepathic Zionists. In Realityland, the COVID vaccine was an overwhelming success.
lowsong 1y ago
We're not even close to passing the "peak of inflated expectations". This is the monster at the heart of the AI industry, that it just doesn't provide value. The "trough of disillusionment" will not be a minor reassessment of AI's place but a complete collapse of billions of dollars of investment overnight.

AIPedant 1y ago

The core issue with the Gartner hype cycle (beyond it not being a cycle!) is that it simply does not apply to "any new tech," tautologically it only applies to hype-driven tech with staying power. Tech which is not driven by hype (e.g. mRNA vaccines driven by urgent need) don't have a trough of disappointment, just a steady slope upwards. And tech which is driven entirely by hype (Theranos) stays in the trough of disappointment forever. The Gartner hype cycle is astrology for MBAs: it cannot fail, it can only be failed by those lacking faith to see its wisdom.

chuckadams 1y ago
I'm a bit amused to learn that the term "Gartner Hype Cycle" is actually some official term from Gartner. I always thought it was a tongue-in-cheek reference to the fact that Gartner is at is core a hype merchant. Reality laps satire once again.
devenson 1y ago
mRNA could be said to be in the trough of disillusionment -- didn't prevent COVID as initially promised, and has problems like causing heart damage in rare cases. This disillusionment is evidenced by lower proportion of people seeking to take such injections now.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- AIPedant 1y ago
  The trough of disillusionment really refers to serious analysis of a technology's problems, not idiotic conspiracy theories spread on Twitter. This is like saying 5G entered the trough of disillusionment because of the threat of telepathic Zionists. In Realityland, the COVID vaccine was an overwhelming success.

lowsong 1y ago

We're not even close to passing the "peak of inflated expectations". This is the monster at the heart of the AI industry, that it just doesn't provide value. The "trough of disillusionment" will not be a minor reassessment of AI's place but a complete collapse of billions of dollars of investment overnight.