4 ms·
afaict, the situation can be roughly summarized as : - global climate is warming by around +0.3C per decade - its caused mainly by humans burning carbon ch
by jgord 1y ago
afaict, the situation can be roughly summarized as :
- global climate is warming by around +0.3C per decade
- its caused mainly by humans burning carbon chains for energy, emitting CO2
- we are currently sailing thru +1.5C above pre-industrial mean temp
- Methane CH4 is also a strong warming agent, around 20x more potent than CO2, on decade timescales
- humans are emitting all time high levels of C02, around 40Gtonnes / yr
- Carbon capture / CCS / DAC need to be millions of times more efficient to be significant
- we dont have enough room or time to plant trees to remove the CO2
- net-zero when we reach it, corresponds to max-Co2 which means peak-heat
- net-zero aka peak-heat might occur bu 2060, by which time we'll be near +2.5C
- extreme events are not linear in increase in temp [ think of shifting the mean of a bell curve ]
Even if we do a great job of electrifying everything, moving away from fossil/carbon fuels by 2060, we still have a heat problem to deal with - will we be able to grow our normal crops under +2.5C, and deal with extreme heatwaves, floods, storms ?
It seems we will need Solar Radiation Management Geo-engineering "SRM" in order to survive that peak-heat and buy us a few decades in which to slowly remove CO2 [ even as we move full steam ahead to de-carbonize our energy system with wind, solar, battery packs, hydro, fission, geothermal and hopefully fusion power ]
Particulates from volcanoes are well known to cause a cooling effect, and its now becoming more obvious that particulates in pollution in Asia, and sulphur impurities in shipping fuels were having a measurable cooling effect - we seem to be warming faster now that Asia and shipping fuels are not producing as much particulate pollution [ thus less cooling effect ]
It seems to me the only "Hail Mary" we have to address the heat problem, is to use SRM to exert a cooling effect - we humans geo-engineered a warm planet over 150 years of burning carbon fuels, and we will need to geo-engineer our way out of this mess.
tldr : Abundant clean energy is needed, but we also have to address the heat problem - with SRM geo-engineering
- gshubert17 1y agoAlas, net zero carbon is not peak heat. It’s peak carbon dioxide. It’s peak rate of temperature change due to greenhouse gases. Global average temperatures will continue to rise past 2060 (or whenever we get net zero). I’m not sure what the models predict. Perhaps the total temperature rise could be 3.5 degrees by 2100.