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There is a number. If the casualties were above 200,000 it would certainly make the case for a genocide much stronger. That's a high civilian to combatant casua
by slashdev 1y ago
There is a number. If the casualties were above 200,000 it would certainly make the case for a genocide much stronger. That's a high civilian to combatant casualty ratio. Hamas has an estimated 30-40K fighters. Numbers like that would mean a 10:1 civilian to combatant ratio which is high for a modern war. Higher than WWII[1], Vietnam, Iraq[2], etc. I'd at least have to admit Israel is prosecuting the war in a very cavalier way in regards to the lives of civilians.
The Iraq war, for example, had a roughly 3:1 ratio of civilians to combatants killed.[2]
If we take the Gazan Health Ministry numbers of 60k casualties of which Israel claims about 23K were Hamas fighters (neither number can be trusted at face value, but it gives us a starting point) then we see a ratio of 2:1. Which is pretty normal for war. Given how densely populated and urban Gaza is, how Hamas uses civilians as human shields, it's actually miraculously low. Not downplaying how horrible it is that so many people have died, but it could be much worse.
You could say the Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry is understating the numbers, but it'd be hard to make a case for more than 80K[3]. You could say Israel has over stated how many Hamas fighters it has killed, but independant intelligence assessments estimate about 15K. If you take the absolute worst case estimate, it's 5:1, which is about the same as Myanamr, worse than Iraq, but better than Chechnya.
There's no way to twist that into a case for genocide. It doesn't fit. Lets look at what civilian to combatant ratio looks like in genocides:
Rwandan Genocide - 80 : 1
Armenian Genocide - 1000 : 1
Bosnian Genocide - 50 : 1
Yazidi Genocide by ISIS - 1000 : 1
Holocaust - 1000 : 1
It's clearly a war, not a genocide.
- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties
- [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War
- [3] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02009-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02009-8
- tastyface 1y ago“Almost a third of people in Gaza not eating for days, UN food programme warns” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgjg81qqwvo.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgjg81qqwvo.amp *Every third person* not eating for days and hundreds being killed in aid lines. Do we have to literally wait for these people to starve to death before admitting that maybe this rings of ethnic cleansing, just a little?
- slashdev 1y agoThere's more to that story: https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1948097196055810061 https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1948097196055810061 > Do we have to literally wait for these people to starve to death before admitting that maybe this rings of ethnic cleansing, just a little? I don't mean to sound callous, but that would make it a genocide. Until it happens, it is not. The current truth of the matter is shrouded by the fog of war. Maybe a couple months from now there has been mass starvation in Gaza and I'm on your side. But I don't think Israel is either stupid or evil enough to let that happen.
- tastyface 1y agoThis is an unsourced and contextless video from somebody who was literally banned from australia for islamophobia. We are too quick to trust social media randos these days. Show me some actual reporting. Meanwhile, regarding past disinfo on a similar subject: “USAID analysis found no evidence of massive Hamas theft of Gaza aid” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/usaid-analysis-found-no-evidence-massive-hamas-theft-gaza-aid-2025-07-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/usaid-analysis-fou... “I don't mean to sound callous, but that would make it a genocide. Until it happens, it is not. The current truth of the matter is shrouded by the fog of war.” How convenient. Well, the purpose of labeling something genocide isn’t to wag your finger. It’s to incentivize action, such as withdrawing military support. In a couple of months it may be too late.
- slashdev 1y agoThere are a million sources saying the same thing on X, but how about the latimes? https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-07-25/israel-says-hundreds-of-truckloads-of-aid-are-waiting-to-enter-gaza-why-cant-the-un-bring-them-in https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-07-25/israel... There are videos of Hamas stealing Gaza aid. How widespread that is tough to tell through the fog of war.
- dttze 1y agoHuh, weird this just came out from Israeli sources then: No Proof Hamas Routinely Stole U.N. Aid, Israeli Military Officials Say https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/middleeast/hamas-un-aid-theft.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/middleeast/hamas-un...