4 ms·

It was a stated goal of the EU - peace through trade.

by kennyadam 1y ago

FirmwareBurner 1y ago
How did that work out?
- potatototoo99 1y ago
  Very well? There hasn't been open war between EU countries since WW2.
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    >Very well? I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine. Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war. And the economies of former Yugoslav nations were very well connected, that didn't stop them going to war with each other. What stopped the wars after WW2 was western Europe being under the rule of a nuclear superpower needing to unite against a bigger nuclear superpower next door, and the countries having democracies with separation of powers making war declarations on their neighbors impossible politically, nothing to do with economies. So the famous "muh economies connected = no war" is a very reductionist and short sighted take that ignores evrything else.
    - motorest 1y ago
      > I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine. Do you believe Russia and Ukraine are a part of the EU? > Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war. Even if we ignore the complete ignorance required to make that statement and take it at face value, keep in mind that the interwar period lasted little more than 20 years. The EU's inception started in the early 1950s with the treaty of Rome being signed in 1957. So at this point the EU's track record on peace is already twice as long as your reference period, and counting.
    - windward 1y ago
      Russia has 18% interest rates, 9% inflation, and a demographic deficit of hundreds of thousands of working age men. So we'll see if anyone wants the same.
      - ekianjo 1y ago
        the demographic bomb is coming for everyone, dont worry.
    - myrmidon 1y ago
      I think you are arguing against a strawman. No one is saying that trade makes war impossible-- but every bit of trade is an additional incentive to not start war, especially if it affects a broad slice of the population directly (=> the average German would be much more affected from losing car exports than the average Russian from lower gas exports). Regarding Russia: I believe that the main mistake on the western side was underestimating Russias imperialistic ambitions combined with the almost existential risk that a western aligned, economically successful Ukraine would have been for the current regime: Russian citizens getting overtaken economically by former compatriots makes it much harder to keep the kleptocracy running; Poland is one thing, but the same happening with the Ukraine would have hit much closer. But regardless, I'm highly confident that Russia/Putin would have decided against the war with the benefit of hindsight. You could even argue that insufficient economical consequences (from the Europeans-- basically the other, necessary side of the peace-by-trade playbook) after the 2014 annexation were a big factor in encouraging the war in the first place.
- adastra22 1y ago
  There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. So mission accomplished? And before anyone says it’s because of nukes or superpower protection or whatever, there has been plenty of wars on the periphery of the EU during this time. The balkans, Cyprus, Egypt, etc.
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    >There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. I meant how did that ensure peace between Ukraine, Russia and EU? It clearly didn't even though EU was buying shit tonnes of gas from Russia, and Russia was buying shit tonne of aerospace parts and stuff from Ukraine. War still happened. [..edited out the Yugoslavia argument..] All the proof shows "peace through trade" does not work. The only thing that works is "peace through strength", which then you can use to enforce and defend your own favorable trade policies for you and your close allies, which has been the US's MO since 1945.
    - seszett 1y ago
      > I meant between Ukraine, RUssia and EU. > Yugoslav wars started in 1991 and ended in 2001. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. Are these wars not "European" enough? Well, Ukraine, Russia and the former Yugoslavian republics that had wars are not part of the EU, or were not at the moment they had their wars. And even though all neighbouring countries trade with the EU, their economies are much less interdependent than those of the EU countries because of the lack of free trade and freedom of movement. So this supports the idea that the EU does prevent wars rather than invalidating it.
      - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
        >So this supports the idea that the EU does prevent wars rather than invalidating it. Yes, it was all the EU economy. The 40 or so US military bases occupying the EU had nothing to do with ensuring peace on the continent.
- bluGill 1y ago
  Do not confuse imperfection for not working. There has been significant peace, despite the continued existence of wars.
- gambiting 1y ago
  Pretty well I'd think. Myself and many(obviously not all) people of my generation consider themselves European before their primary nationality. The idea of EU states going into any kind of conflict with each others is beyond absurd.

It was a stated goal of the EU - peace through trade.

FirmwareBurner 1y ago

How did that work out?

potatototoo99 1y ago
Very well? There hasn't been open war between EU countries since WW2.
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  >Very well? I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine. Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war. And the economies of former Yugoslav nations were very well connected, that didn't stop them going to war with each other. What stopped the wars after WW2 was western Europe being under the rule of a nuclear superpower needing to unite against a bigger nuclear superpower next door, and the countries having democracies with separation of powers making war declarations on their neighbors impossible politically, nothing to do with economies. So the famous "muh economies connected = no war" is a very reductionist and short sighted take that ignores evrything else.
  - motorest 1y ago
    > I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine. Do you believe Russia and Ukraine are a part of the EU? > Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war. Even if we ignore the complete ignorance required to make that statement and take it at face value, keep in mind that the interwar period lasted little more than 20 years. The EU's inception started in the early 1950s with the treaty of Rome being signed in 1957. So at this point the EU's track record on peace is already twice as long as your reference period, and counting.
  - windward 1y ago
    Russia has 18% interest rates, 9% inflation, and a demographic deficit of hundreds of thousands of working age men. So we'll see if anyone wants the same.
    - ekianjo 1y ago
      the demographic bomb is coming for everyone, dont worry.
  - myrmidon 1y ago
    I think you are arguing against a strawman. No one is saying that trade makes war impossible-- but every bit of trade is an additional incentive to not start war, especially if it affects a broad slice of the population directly (=> the average German would be much more affected from losing car exports than the average Russian from lower gas exports). Regarding Russia: I believe that the main mistake on the western side was underestimating Russias imperialistic ambitions combined with the almost existential risk that a western aligned, economically successful Ukraine would have been for the current regime: Russian citizens getting overtaken economically by former compatriots makes it much harder to keep the kleptocracy running; Poland is one thing, but the same happening with the Ukraine would have hit much closer. But regardless, I'm highly confident that Russia/Putin would have decided against the war with the benefit of hindsight. You could even argue that insufficient economical consequences (from the Europeans-- basically the other, necessary side of the peace-by-trade playbook) after the 2014 annexation were a big factor in encouraging the war in the first place.
adastra22 1y ago
There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. So mission accomplished? And before anyone says it’s because of nukes or superpower protection or whatever, there has been plenty of wars on the periphery of the EU during this time. The balkans, Cyprus, Egypt, etc.
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  >There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. I meant how did that ensure peace between Ukraine, Russia and EU? It clearly didn't even though EU was buying shit tonnes of gas from Russia, and Russia was buying shit tonne of aerospace parts and stuff from Ukraine. War still happened. [..edited out the Yugoslavia argument..] All the proof shows "peace through trade" does not work. The only thing that works is "peace through strength", which then you can use to enforce and defend your own favorable trade policies for you and your close allies, which has been the US's MO since 1945.
  - seszett 1y ago
    > I meant between Ukraine, RUssia and EU. > Yugoslav wars started in 1991 and ended in 2001. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. Are these wars not "European" enough? Well, Ukraine, Russia and the former Yugoslavian republics that had wars are not part of the EU, or were not at the moment they had their wars. And even though all neighbouring countries trade with the EU, their economies are much less interdependent than those of the EU countries because of the lack of free trade and freedom of movement. So this supports the idea that the EU does prevent wars rather than invalidating it.
    - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
      >So this supports the idea that the EU does prevent wars rather than invalidating it. Yes, it was all the EU economy. The 40 or so US military bases occupying the EU had nothing to do with ensuring peace on the continent.
bluGill 1y ago
Do not confuse imperfection for not working. There has been significant peace, despite the continued existence of wars.
gambiting 1y ago
Pretty well I'd think. Myself and many(obviously not all) people of my generation consider themselves European before their primary nationality. The idea of EU states going into any kind of conflict with each others is beyond absurd.