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These prices might be temporary, CCP is trying to crack down on deflationary pricing which is cannibalizing it's own internal markets. A product of competing pr

by dmix 1y ago

These prices might be temporary, CCP is trying to crack down on deflationary pricing which is cannibalizing it's own internal markets. A product of competing provincial governments subsidizing their local companies with cheap debt and the overuse of promissory notes between vendors. It's resulted in a record number of bankruptcies and created a financial risk similar to China's real estate bubble. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbFE60Z-_VQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbFE60Z-_VQ Think: how Uber used VC money to offer cheap prices and undercut competition, but times hundreds of companies using government money driving the whole market down into fantasy land. Eventually prices have to come back to reality or the factories won't have capital.

alephnerd 1y ago
For the Atto 1, around $12K makes sense. Equivalent EVs from Indian companies like Tata and Mahindra and Vietnamese companies like Vinfast sell for around $8-10K. The price war in China is when a new Atto 1 could be bought for $6-8k from a dealership on discount. That's why BYD (and SAIC, Geely, GWM, etc) have been expanding abroad so quickly - in order to build their own niche to survive the Chinese price war. That said, as I predicted a year ago, the Chinese leadership has started cracking down on the price war in China for burning capital - especially at provincial SOEs who have been facing the brunt of the war because privately owned BYD has been outcompeting the SOEs.
- dmix 1y ago
  Regardless of the potentially unsound money involved that is pretty great they can produce these cars for $12k. Hopefully the export gamble pays off enough to cover the internal issues, history is full of companies have a habit of stretching out the good times on easy money before they hit a wall. BYD would probably just consume the smaller competition in such an event, just mostly bad news for provincial government debt.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    > that is pretty great they can produce these cars for $12k All new hatchback EVs comparable to the Atto in Asia can be purchased at around $8-12K as I mentioned before, like the Tata Tiago EV, Tata Punch EV, and VinFast VF3. > Regardless of the potentially unsound money involved It becomes unsound when you are selling it at $7-8K, which is what has been happening in China. Hypothetically great for consumers, but in action it was a net negative because the SOEs competing against BYD are all owned by provinces, so it was citizens money getting burned. This itself is why Chinese leadership has reprimanded the entire EV industry a couple days ago for reckless price wars [0] [0] - https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202507/content_7032374.htm https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202507/content_7032374.htm
toomuchtodo 1y ago
China needs no more housing (which, previously, was the driver of their economy), but still needs work for hundreds of millions of people. Xi specifically shaped policy to grow clean energy and EV industries. These prices will only continue to decline in the future. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-is-reinventing-the-future-of-global-manufacturing/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-is-reinven...
csomar 1y ago
China is making moves on the international stage that I think are unrelated to its internal economy. They seem to be moving forward with this: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/china-says-it-will-remove-all-tariffs-african-exports-boost-trade-2025-06-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/china-says-it-will-remo... A bit early to see if there are any fine prints but this seems like them trying to re-route the global economy. African countries are insignificant when taken separately but on the aggregate they make a sizable chunk with potential for some growth.

by dmix 1y ago

alephnerd 1y ago

For the Atto 1, around $12K makes sense. Equivalent EVs from Indian companies like Tata and Mahindra and Vietnamese companies like Vinfast sell for around $8-10K. The price war in China is when a new Atto 1 could be bought for $6-8k from a dealership on discount. That's why BYD (and SAIC, Geely, GWM, etc) have been expanding abroad so quickly - in order to build their own niche to survive the Chinese price war. That said, as I predicted a year ago, the Chinese leadership has started cracking down on the price war in China for burning capital - especially at provincial SOEs who have been facing the brunt of the war because privately owned BYD has been outcompeting the SOEs.

dmix 1y ago
Regardless of the potentially unsound money involved that is pretty great they can produce these cars for $12k. Hopefully the export gamble pays off enough to cover the internal issues, history is full of companies have a habit of stretching out the good times on easy money before they hit a wall. BYD would probably just consume the smaller competition in such an event, just mostly bad news for provincial government debt.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  > that is pretty great they can produce these cars for $12k All new hatchback EVs comparable to the Atto in Asia can be purchased at around $8-12K as I mentioned before, like the Tata Tiago EV, Tata Punch EV, and VinFast VF3. > Regardless of the potentially unsound money involved It becomes unsound when you are selling it at $7-8K, which is what has been happening in China. Hypothetically great for consumers, but in action it was a net negative because the SOEs competing against BYD are all owned by provinces, so it was citizens money getting burned. This itself is why Chinese leadership has reprimanded the entire EV industry a couple days ago for reckless price wars [0] [0] - https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202507/content_7032374.htm https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202507/content_7032374.htm

toomuchtodo 1y ago

China needs no more housing (which, previously, was the driver of their economy), but still needs work for hundreds of millions of people. Xi specifically shaped policy to grow clean energy and EV industries. These prices will only continue to decline in the future. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-is-reinventing-the-future-of-global-manufacturing/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-is-reinven...

csomar 1y ago

China is making moves on the international stage that I think are unrelated to its internal economy. They seem to be moving forward with this: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/china-says-it-will-remove-all-tariffs-african-exports-boost-trade-2025-06-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/china-says-it-will-remo... A bit early to see if there are any fine prints but this seems like them trying to re-route the global economy. African countries are insignificant when taken separately but on the aggregate they make a sizable chunk with potential for some growth.