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My opinion is success is difficult to copy and luck plays a huge part. A better way is to observe the people who failed and failed miserably, and learn from th

My opinion is success is difficult to copy and luck plays a huge part. A better way is to observe the people who failed and failed miserably, and learn from their failures. My model of the world is that, for ordinary people, you are going to be exposed to some opportunities to succeed from time to time, but in a random fashion. You only need to catch one or two to be successful. So the key is NOT to maximize your success rate, but to make sure you never fell into a hole you cannot climb back, and prepare for the next opportunity. But so far I have not seen any serious conference that focuses on failures. Everyone wants to learn from the winners. I’d hold a losers conference if I got the time.

jonfromsf 1y ago
You might like FailCon. https://thefailcon.com/ https://thefailcon.com/
Horffupolde 1y ago
It’s better not to lose than to win. Life is non-Ergodic.
billy99k 1y ago
Suceess always seems random, but it really isn't. It involves about as much luck as anything in life. As an example, if you studied for an exam and did well, was it because you didn't get into a car accident on the way or overslept or got sick when you needed to study? Or because you studied? I have found that many people want to attribute all success as 'luck' due to their own insecurities.
- audinobs 1y ago
  This is obviously false. Initial starting conditions are the biggest variable in the chaos of life. No matter what your success in life, be born in Cambodia in 1970 and it is going to be hugely different. You are really just repeating the delusional western perspective that completely takes for granted their own initial starting conditions as a given.
- ponector 1y ago
  Without the luck you'll not be able to get to the exam room. Lucky to not be disabled, to get an education, lucky to enroll the college, etc. Almost all success is to have enough luck so there is a place for you. To have a place for you in uni, to have an open internship, to have an open position so you can step up the ladder, etc.
robocat 1y ago
> A better way is to observe the people who failed and failed miserably, and learn from their failures I've always wondered about this for startups: failure porn just feels so useful but my suspicion is that it is useless. There's just too many different ways to fail. Focusing time and energy on how to avoid failure just seems so wrong. Getting sidetracked. Unmotivated. However I do think one needs the right amount of fear, and one needs to avoid the failure modes for your particular startup and your particular personality. Surely the right idea is to focus on competing to win.
godelski 1y ago
> for ordinary people, you are going to be exposed to some opportunities to succeed from time to time, but in a random fashion There's a saying I really love The harder I work, the luckier I get The way I interpret this is that by working harder you make yourself able to take advantage of more opportunities that come along. It "increases your surface area of luck", effectively. The opportunities still come at random, but work helps you capitalize on that luck. As a dumb trivial example, let's say you're a recent college graduate just having a drink at a bar. You just happen to talk to the person next to you and they tell you they're working in the space you studied and are hiring. If you didn't go to school, you wouldn't have been able to take advantage of that lucky situation. I definitely agree that it is important to look at failures and learn from them. There's a large bias for ignoring luck's role in our (or others') success. Sometimes to the point of becoming superstitious, like replicating patterns of successful people that have nothing to do with their success (e.g. their daily routine). But when looking at failure, it is also important to remember Picard[0] It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is a weakness, that is life. Sometimes people fail because they got unlucky. They did all the right things, but at the wrong time. This isn't the answer to all failures, but it is to some. It can be difficult to determine the difference, but just because it didn't work for someone before doesn't mean it won't work this time. If luck plays a role for success, lack of luck plays a role in failure. With success, we tend to underestimate the role of luck. With failure we tend to overestimate it. In neither case can it be ignored. [0] https://youtu.be/mr2Jdp4fdD0?t=38 https://youtu.be/mr2Jdp4fdD0?t=38
- borroka 1y ago
  Unfortunately, most proverbs, sayings, etc. have no quantifiable value, which makes all the difference when evaluating opportunities. I like to say that I probably worked harder than many of the best soccer players in the world today when I was young, but I'm nowhere near their level. However, perhaps if I had talked to the right person, if I had made the right choice when choosing one team over another, I would have had a decent professional career instead of the mediocre one I had. Maybe I should have worked 10% less and spent 70% more on “networking,” and my chances of making it would have increased by 30% or 20%. But no one knows. And even if you had a way to estimate these probabilities at the population level, the individual realization of random draws from the probability distribution would still be random. Most of the time, it doesn't take more than 1 or 2 favorable random draws to get where others would die to be. According to heritability estimates, I had a 5% chance of becoming much taller than my parents, which, we can all agree, is a pretty low probability, but it happened.
underlipton 1y ago
I suppose part of the issue is that a lot of people don't really know how they got where they are. You can point to this or that traumatic incident as the watershed moment that made the difference in the wrong direction, but who's to say if that's really it? Maybe it was a completely different missed (or withheld) opportunity that they've completely forgotten, or can't confront because of what it would mean about their behavior or identity or the world we live in. A conference that could cut through that and get to some real answers would be very valuable. I would call it a "burnout conference" though. It really seems like the terminology has changed recently; people say "loser" less and "burnout" more, perhaps in light of some recognition of: (1) the seriousness of the circumstances (it's not a game) (2) the personal nature of everyone's journey (it's not a competition) (3) the degree to which a lot of this stuff is out of our control (4) the toll the rat race takes on even the most strident

jonfromsf 1y ago

You might like FailCon. https://thefailcon.com/ https://thefailcon.com/

Horffupolde 1y ago

It’s better not to lose than to win. Life is non-Ergodic.

billy99k 1y ago

Suceess always seems random, but it really isn't. It involves about as much luck as anything in life. As an example, if you studied for an exam and did well, was it because you didn't get into a car accident on the way or overslept or got sick when you needed to study? Or because you studied? I have found that many people want to attribute all success as 'luck' due to their own insecurities.

audinobs 1y ago
This is obviously false. Initial starting conditions are the biggest variable in the chaos of life. No matter what your success in life, be born in Cambodia in 1970 and it is going to be hugely different. You are really just repeating the delusional western perspective that completely takes for granted their own initial starting conditions as a given.
ponector 1y ago
Without the luck you'll not be able to get to the exam room. Lucky to not be disabled, to get an education, lucky to enroll the college, etc. Almost all success is to have enough luck so there is a place for you. To have a place for you in uni, to have an open internship, to have an open position so you can step up the ladder, etc.

robocat 1y ago

> A better way is to observe the people who failed and failed miserably, and learn from their failures I've always wondered about this for startups: failure porn just feels so useful but my suspicion is that it is useless. There's just too many different ways to fail. Focusing time and energy on how to avoid failure just seems so wrong. Getting sidetracked. Unmotivated. However I do think one needs the right amount of fear, and one needs to avoid the failure modes for your particular startup and your particular personality. Surely the right idea is to focus on competing to win.

godelski 1y ago

> for ordinary people, you are going to be exposed to some opportunities to succeed from time to time, but in a random fashion There's a saying I really love The harder I work, the luckier I get The way I interpret this is that by working harder you make yourself able to take advantage of more opportunities that come along. It "increases your surface area of luck", effectively. The opportunities still come at random, but work helps you capitalize on that luck. As a dumb trivial example, let's say you're a recent college graduate just having a drink at a bar. You just happen to talk to the person next to you and they tell you they're working in the space you studied and are hiring. If you didn't go to school, you wouldn't have been able to take advantage of that lucky situation. I definitely agree that it is important to look at failures and learn from them. There's a large bias for ignoring luck's role in our (or others') success. Sometimes to the point of becoming superstitious, like replicating patterns of successful people that have nothing to do with their success (e.g. their daily routine). But when looking at failure, it is also important to remember Picard[0] It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is a weakness, that is life. Sometimes people fail because they got unlucky. They did all the right things, but at the wrong time. This isn't the answer to all failures, but it is to some. It can be difficult to determine the difference, but just because it didn't work for someone before doesn't mean it won't work this time. If luck plays a role for success, lack of luck plays a role in failure. With success, we tend to underestimate the role of luck. With failure we tend to overestimate it. In neither case can it be ignored. [0] https://youtu.be/mr2Jdp4fdD0?t=38 https://youtu.be/mr2Jdp4fdD0?t=38

borroka 1y ago
Unfortunately, most proverbs, sayings, etc. have no quantifiable value, which makes all the difference when evaluating opportunities. I like to say that I probably worked harder than many of the best soccer players in the world today when I was young, but I'm nowhere near their level. However, perhaps if I had talked to the right person, if I had made the right choice when choosing one team over another, I would have had a decent professional career instead of the mediocre one I had. Maybe I should have worked 10% less and spent 70% more on “networking,” and my chances of making it would have increased by 30% or 20%. But no one knows. And even if you had a way to estimate these probabilities at the population level, the individual realization of random draws from the probability distribution would still be random. Most of the time, it doesn't take more than 1 or 2 favorable random draws to get where others would die to be. According to heritability estimates, I had a 5% chance of becoming much taller than my parents, which, we can all agree, is a pretty low probability, but it happened.

underlipton 1y ago

I suppose part of the issue is that a lot of people don't really know how they got where they are. You can point to this or that traumatic incident as the watershed moment that made the difference in the wrong direction, but who's to say if that's really it? Maybe it was a completely different missed (or withheld) opportunity that they've completely forgotten, or can't confront because of what it would mean about their behavior or identity or the world we live in. A conference that could cut through that and get to some real answers would be very valuable. I would call it a "burnout conference" though. It really seems like the terminology has changed recently; people say "loser" less and "burnout" more, perhaps in light of some recognition of: (1) the seriousness of the circumstances (it's not a game) (2) the personal nature of everyone's journey (it's not a competition) (3) the degree to which a lot of this stuff is out of our control (4) the toll the rat race takes on even the most strident