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Where do you live? Rain and dry has not become more intense in most parts of the world, so local climate change of that sort isn't driven by CO2. For example, i

Where do you live? Rain and dry has not become more intense in most parts of the world, so local climate change of that sort isn't driven by CO2. For example, in the UK rainfall levels haven't changed since recordings began, there's no increase in outlier events either. A doubling of crop failure rates in just 20 years is definitely not something that should be immediately blamed on global climate change. It's possible there's some local climate change for non-CO2 reasons. In 20 years there's been just 0.2 degrees of average warming, which is barely detectable (CIs on weather stations are often much larger!)

ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
> For example, in the UK rainfall levels haven't changed since recordings began, there's no increase in outlier events either. The UK is in a peculiar place for weather patterns though - we're pretty much on the cusp of five different weather systems, so we're kind of used to changeable/outlier weather events. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24305230 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24305230
- mike_hearn 1y ago
  Britain has very stable weather compared to a lot of places. Not much difference in temps between summer and winter, no monsoon seasons, no hurricanes etc.
  - ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
    I would consider it "mild" weather rather than "stable". We don't tend to get extremes, but we do get fluctuations over the course of a day. I expect things will be different if the Gulf Stream shifts and plunges Britain into a mini ice age.
boudin 1y ago
Ah the propaganda troll... Talking about one thing and trying to deny it using another. That's lame. I'm talking about events not average. I'm also talking about facts. And if you really are in the uk you would know there has been lot of heatwave, intense rain and thunderstorm events in the uk the past few years. Just to push back on your bullshit, you can have the same rain yearly avearge as every other year and have no rain during the whole year but one. Your average would look good but your agriculture certainly not. Go bother someone else...
- mike_hearn 1y ago
  You mentioned an anonymous anecdote about a farmer in an unnamed country. That's not facts. The facts say that frequency and outlier events in rainfall haven't changed. I used the UK as an example because it has unusually long records on this topic. So, it's worth checking the Met Office's data on this to ground the discussion in something more concrete. Look at the graphs in this report: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2023.pdf?mc_cid=115af24a9b&mc_eid=c926002e71 https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2... Pages 5 and 6 show annual rainfall. It increased a little around 1870, but today it's not much different to rainfall levels in the 1910s. Winter average is a little higher recently but only due to heavy rains in the winter of 2013, otherwise there'd be nothing to see. Rainfall in other seasons hasn't changed at all. Page 7 shows just the most extreme years. "most of the ten wettest years occurred in the years up to and including 1960 (Figure 10a). The only two exceptions are 2000 and 2012. The situation regarding the ten driest years is even starker, with the most recent significant year being 1964 (Figure 10b)." Nor are there more or stronger storms. Wind speeds have actually been falling over time (page 10). It's turning into a financial issue for wind farms. The British government itself says that, also for the whole North Atlantic: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-global-extreme-events-wind-storms https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-... > The UK State of the Climate report states that there are no compelling trends in storminess when considering maximum gust speeds over the last four decades. More comprehensive studies across the North Atlantic region have reached similar conclusions. You need to stop attacking people who are responding to your anecdotes with data. A lot of people believe untrue things about the weather because they struggle to separate predictions about the future vs statements about the present. It's certainly possible there are places where rainfall has become markedly more intense. But if so, it's not a global phenomenon.
  - boudin 1y ago
    Nice try and thanks for proving my point, continuing to try to lure to wrong conclusion using unrelated data. Actual storm events (just scrolling gives an idea of the acceleration of the phenomena): https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather-events https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather... Conclusion from a met office study around the direction we're going https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-change-shifting-uks-high-impact-weather/ https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-chan...

ndsipa_pomu 1y ago

> For example, in the UK rainfall levels haven't changed since recordings began, there's no increase in outlier events either. The UK is in a peculiar place for weather patterns though - we're pretty much on the cusp of five different weather systems, so we're kind of used to changeable/outlier weather events. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24305230 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24305230

mike_hearn 1y ago
Britain has very stable weather compared to a lot of places. Not much difference in temps between summer and winter, no monsoon seasons, no hurricanes etc.
- ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
  I would consider it "mild" weather rather than "stable". We don't tend to get extremes, but we do get fluctuations over the course of a day. I expect things will be different if the Gulf Stream shifts and plunges Britain into a mini ice age.

boudin 1y ago

Ah the propaganda troll... Talking about one thing and trying to deny it using another. That's lame. I'm talking about events not average. I'm also talking about facts. And if you really are in the uk you would know there has been lot of heatwave, intense rain and thunderstorm events in the uk the past few years. Just to push back on your bullshit, you can have the same rain yearly avearge as every other year and have no rain during the whole year but one. Your average would look good but your agriculture certainly not. Go bother someone else...

mike_hearn 1y ago
You mentioned an anonymous anecdote about a farmer in an unnamed country. That's not facts. The facts say that frequency and outlier events in rainfall haven't changed. I used the UK as an example because it has unusually long records on this topic. So, it's worth checking the Met Office's data on this to ground the discussion in something more concrete. Look at the graphs in this report: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2023.pdf?mc_cid=115af24a9b&mc_eid=c926002e71 https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2... Pages 5 and 6 show annual rainfall. It increased a little around 1870, but today it's not much different to rainfall levels in the 1910s. Winter average is a little higher recently but only due to heavy rains in the winter of 2013, otherwise there'd be nothing to see. Rainfall in other seasons hasn't changed at all. Page 7 shows just the most extreme years. "most of the ten wettest years occurred in the years up to and including 1960 (Figure 10a). The only two exceptions are 2000 and 2012. The situation regarding the ten driest years is even starker, with the most recent significant year being 1964 (Figure 10b)." Nor are there more or stronger storms. Wind speeds have actually been falling over time (page 10). It's turning into a financial issue for wind farms. The British government itself says that, also for the whole North Atlantic: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-global-extreme-events-wind-storms https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-... > The UK State of the Climate report states that there are no compelling trends in storminess when considering maximum gust speeds over the last four decades. More comprehensive studies across the North Atlantic region have reached similar conclusions. You need to stop attacking people who are responding to your anecdotes with data. A lot of people believe untrue things about the weather because they struggle to separate predictions about the future vs statements about the present. It's certainly possible there are places where rainfall has become markedly more intense. But if so, it's not a global phenomenon.
- boudin 1y ago
  Nice try and thanks for proving my point, continuing to try to lure to wrong conclusion using unrelated data. Actual storm events (just scrolling gives an idea of the acceleration of the phenomena): https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather-events https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather... Conclusion from a met office study around the direction we're going https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-change-shifting-uks-high-impact-weather/ https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-chan...