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PRC going to roll out their prompt global strike sooner than later. Conversation of CONUS vulnerability is slowly being acknowledged in wonk circles. A few more

PRC going to roll out their prompt global strike sooner than later. Conversation of CONUS vulnerability is slowly being acknowledged in wonk circles. A few more PRC FOB tests and the notion that PRC can conventionally strike CONUS (eventually at scale) is going to unavoidably manifest in mainstream American discourse. Likely spectacularly unhinged considering how Americans handled a balloon. Reality is even of GD is technically DOA and strategically destabilizing, it will serve as US MIC exceptionalism to calm Americans as long as it's not tested and Trump will be the guy credited with the president with the foresight to protect/"shield" CONUS. PRC being able to hit strategic energy nodes, data centres, carriers parked in dry docks, b21s in shelters, F35 manufacturing lines, finance infra... basically uproot CONUS serenity that underpins US power (both soft/hard) etc etc is going to be unavoidable, and the only rhetorical salve for that is Golden Dome wank as long as peace holds. There's also the very marginal chance that it will work. There's probably much better offensive capabilities US can hedge with using $$$$$ GD money, but ultimately not being hit is what allows constituents to sleep at night.

bigyabai 1y ago
Yes. However, the PRC knows that this is how world wars start. I suspect that nobody outside the uber-old Politburo members will be clamoring for preemptive strikes when China's soft-power is this strong already. There will come a day where American exceptionalism gets kicked in the face, but only once America overextends. China's blue-water navy is nowhere near as credible as their littoral forces, meaning that they're much better equipped to fight Taiwan than America. This is the fight they want, and they're overwhelmingly prepared to kill Americans until popular support collapses. It's a mistake to get sucked into the "China strong" outward presentation of the PRC - they're much more cunning (and constrained) than they make themselves out to be. They're willing to play poker at the international table until the knives come out, which is smarter than what many countries can say about their foreign policy.
- maxglute 1y ago
  > preemptive strikes Prompt global strike less about preemption, but building up proportional responses on retaliation latter. US discussion around TW scenario factors in mainland strikes, with assumption that CONUS will be relatively spared. Once conversation includes hitting PRC mainland = PRC hitting CONUS, then escalation math becomes very different. Global strike and blue water are both we can touch your homeland capabilities, with global strike potentially able to make bluewater obsolete, i.e. global striking carrier hulls or logistic nodes that sustains bluewater prevents them from being forward deployed and being able to deliver fires at all. That's what makes US GD optics extra worthwhile, at this point US has sunk trillions and decades into carrier centred (and soon B21) expeditionary force structure, with no hint of pivot (i.e. IMO too much interbranch drama to build out equivalent of PLARocketForce). Sailors like their big boats, aviators like their fancy planes. No one wants to be the glorified uber driver for big icbm rockets. Marine MLRs closest, but they get to brag about driving off big boats in their big cars that shoot small missiles. At the end of the day, GD, going to be blanket wank material for US having bestest/most impenetrable missile defense can validate the other force structures that requires forward / preposition by at least pretending they're not as vulnerable as they are. It's how US gets to continue play the China weak card as long as china remains cautious / PLA remains untested. i.e. if PRC stays smart and appear weak relative to US.
jjk166 1y ago
It would be suicidal for a nuclear armed state to "at scale" launch such weapons at another nuclear armed state. Yeah, they could have conventional weapon payloads, but the target nation isn't going to sit around and find out. You launch what looks like an all-out nuclear first strike, you're going to receive a retaliatory nuclear strike. In a drawn out conflict perhaps you'd have a slow escalation of bigger and bigger conventional strikes and eventually reach the point of such an attack without triggering a nuclear response, but that gives time for the populace to adapt to the new normal, not to mention hardening targets. The only scenario where just one day the continental US gets hit and then we're done is the nuclear first strike scenario, the threat of which the population has been living with for decades. Realistically, total war between nuclear weapon states is unlikely to happen under the current geopolitical paradigm. Proxy conflicts trying to push nations to collapse from internal stress will remain the real arena of great powers until such time that an effective counter to full scale nuclear attacks are not only developed but trusted. In such a world, shooting down long range, highly maneuverable missiles with advanced countermeasures isn't just possible, it's routine.
- maxglute 1y ago
  >slow escalation That's probably how it plays out if it plays out (also imo unlikely). But also mere existence of capabilities like PRC PGS will force parties to recalibrate response matrix. It would also be true to say ANY US strike on PRC mainland via any delivery platform, boats/planes/subs at scale will invite immediate retaliatory MAD response... after all essentially every US delivery platform is dual capable, i.e. can be nuclear tipped -> warhead ambiguity problem. How would PRC know otherwise? Except rational actors (maybe lol expectations) from both sides knows adversary capable of conventional homeland strikes will have to adjust response accordingly. This means in world where PRC can strike CONUS at scale, US likely has to settle for launch on confirmation, just like PRC has to deal with US striking mainland at scale. That's why assured second strike via triad exists (really SSGN for US, rocketforce TELs in tunnels for PRC). But until shooting actually starts, GD doesn't need to be trusted, it just needs to exist to placate domestic audience or confuse adversaries.
  - jjk166 1y ago

bigyabai 1y ago

Yes. However, the PRC knows that this is how world wars start. I suspect that nobody outside the uber-old Politburo members will be clamoring for preemptive strikes when China's soft-power is this strong already. There will come a day where American exceptionalism gets kicked in the face, but only once America overextends. China's blue-water navy is nowhere near as credible as their littoral forces, meaning that they're much better equipped to fight Taiwan than America. This is the fight they want, and they're overwhelmingly prepared to kill Americans until popular support collapses. It's a mistake to get sucked into the "China strong" outward presentation of the PRC - they're much more cunning (and constrained) than they make themselves out to be. They're willing to play poker at the international table until the knives come out, which is smarter than what many countries can say about their foreign policy.

maxglute 1y ago
> preemptive strikes Prompt global strike less about preemption, but building up proportional responses on retaliation latter. US discussion around TW scenario factors in mainland strikes, with assumption that CONUS will be relatively spared. Once conversation includes hitting PRC mainland = PRC hitting CONUS, then escalation math becomes very different. Global strike and blue water are both we can touch your homeland capabilities, with global strike potentially able to make bluewater obsolete, i.e. global striking carrier hulls or logistic nodes that sustains bluewater prevents them from being forward deployed and being able to deliver fires at all. That's what makes US GD optics extra worthwhile, at this point US has sunk trillions and decades into carrier centred (and soon B21) expeditionary force structure, with no hint of pivot (i.e. IMO too much interbranch drama to build out equivalent of PLARocketForce). Sailors like their big boats, aviators like their fancy planes. No one wants to be the glorified uber driver for big icbm rockets. Marine MLRs closest, but they get to brag about driving off big boats in their big cars that shoot small missiles. At the end of the day, GD, going to be blanket wank material for US having bestest/most impenetrable missile defense can validate the other force structures that requires forward / preposition by at least pretending they're not as vulnerable as they are. It's how US gets to continue play the China weak card as long as china remains cautious / PLA remains untested. i.e. if PRC stays smart and appear weak relative to US.

jjk166 1y ago

It would be suicidal for a nuclear armed state to "at scale" launch such weapons at another nuclear armed state. Yeah, they could have conventional weapon payloads, but the target nation isn't going to sit around and find out. You launch what looks like an all-out nuclear first strike, you're going to receive a retaliatory nuclear strike. In a drawn out conflict perhaps you'd have a slow escalation of bigger and bigger conventional strikes and eventually reach the point of such an attack without triggering a nuclear response, but that gives time for the populace to adapt to the new normal, not to mention hardening targets. The only scenario where just one day the continental US gets hit and then we're done is the nuclear first strike scenario, the threat of which the population has been living with for decades. Realistically, total war between nuclear weapon states is unlikely to happen under the current geopolitical paradigm. Proxy conflicts trying to push nations to collapse from internal stress will remain the real arena of great powers until such time that an effective counter to full scale nuclear attacks are not only developed but trusted. In such a world, shooting down long range, highly maneuverable missiles with advanced countermeasures isn't just possible, it's routine.

maxglute 1y ago
>slow escalation That's probably how it plays out if it plays out (also imo unlikely). But also mere existence of capabilities like PRC PGS will force parties to recalibrate response matrix. It would also be true to say ANY US strike on PRC mainland via any delivery platform, boats/planes/subs at scale will invite immediate retaliatory MAD response... after all essentially every US delivery platform is dual capable, i.e. can be nuclear tipped -> warhead ambiguity problem. How would PRC know otherwise? Except rational actors (maybe lol expectations) from both sides knows adversary capable of conventional homeland strikes will have to adjust response accordingly. This means in world where PRC can strike CONUS at scale, US likely has to settle for launch on confirmation, just like PRC has to deal with US striking mainland at scale. That's why assured second strike via triad exists (really SSGN for US, rocketforce TELs in tunnels for PRC). But until shooting actually starts, GD doesn't need to be trusted, it just needs to exist to placate domestic audience or confuse adversaries.
- jjk166 1y ago