4 ms·

I think urbanists should be a lot more cautious of throwing Austin around as a success story. It is still too early to say whether they've found a good equilibr

I think urbanists should be a lot more cautious of throwing Austin around as a success story. It is still too early to say whether they've found a good equilibrium in supply/demand that limits price increases or they're cresting a major COVID-triggered speculative glut which will be very damaging to the city. I'd bet that Miami is just a few years ahead of it (entering serious decline) and within a decade Austin will be seen as an obvious-in-retrospect cautionary tale.

bazingakiller 1y ago
[flagged]
cyberax 1y ago
Austin is a success story in the same way Detroit is. Austin population cratered and it still has not recovered to 2020 level. That's why the housing costs there decreased. In other words: force citizens out of your city, and the price will fall.
- verall 1y ago
  This is not true, I don't know if you live here or why you repeat it. Population has receded slightly in the last couple years in Austin proper, is still greater than 2020, and the metro area has not shrunk year over year at all, although growth has slowed.
  - cyberax 1y ago
    > This is not true, I don't know if you live here or why you repeat it. Population by year: 2019: 978,763 2020 high estimate for Jan 1 (996,369) - https://austin.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-15-20-austin-population-explode-past-1-million-by-summer-2020/ https://austin.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-15-20-austin... 2020: 961,855 (Census, low mark) 2023: 979,882 2024 (estimated high mark): 986,928 So yes, the population cratered from a high in early 2020. This brought down prices with a 2 year lag, as owners started to get rid of empty units. The prices will come right back up now, that the population is recovering.
    - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
      Down 4% is not "cratered". Detroit is "cratered".
    - verall 1y ago
      You're comparing different estimate sources and still ignoring that someone moving to round rock or ceder park is still a part of the housing pressure for the city of Austin. A low-single-digit push to local burbs happened all over the country. "Austin" in the same way people discuss "Houston" or "Chicago" i.e. the local metro area has grown every year.
      - cyberax 1y ago
        There are different sources (and I pointed that out), but they all show that the population has been at most flat. The suburbs migration IS the point. The suburbs are a superior model when it's made possible by de-urbanization of workplaces, and it shows. The price in the suburbs of Austin has been growing.
- renewiltord 1y ago
  ACS, the Decennial Census, and the Austin Demographer has the data we need. Let's take a look https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B01003?q=B01003:+TOTAL+POPULATION&g=160XX00US4805000 https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B01003?q=B01003:+T... and https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALPL2020.P1?q=P1:+TOTAL+POPULATION&g=160XX00US4805000 https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALPL2020.P1?q=P1:+TOTAL... (no ACS in 2020 because of COVID, but we got the Census) and https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/ https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/ You'll see that the ACS 1-year was not performed and released in 2020 due to data quality 2015: 931840 2016: 947897 2017: 950714 2018: 964243 2019: 979263 2020: 961855 (Decennial Census), 965,872 (ACS 5-year, not comparable to 1-year), 996369 (Austin City Demographer) 2021: 964000 2022: 975335 2023: 979700 2025: 1025668 I think there is no single source that shows population decrease post 2020 to a value in 2020 from the same source. But the sources do differ, so likely what has happened is that you have not performed proper data hygiene. You cannot regress across sources without compensating for cross-source differences. In this case we have the property that 2021 onwards shows increase in ACS and that Austin Demographics shows increase from 2020 onwards but that there is difference between 2020 numbers between sources. We also see that Austin Demographer has higher number in 2019 than ACS sample https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/documents/cf1519ab5f244c369615422df2e41b4c/explore https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/documents/cf1519a... This means it's probably not good idea to compare 2023 ACS number to 2020 Austin Demographer number. Fortunately, we have Austin Demographer number from 2019, 2020, and 2025. From all this, we can conclude that cratering hypothesis is likely false. We must conclude that following statement of yours is unlikely: > Austin population cratered and it still has not recovered to 2020 level.
  - cyberax 1y ago
    Perhaps you shouldn't use ChatGPT without checking sources? The purported 2025 number is actually: "Population for City of Austin Full and Limited Purpose Boundaries, 2023". I indicated that the sources are different. And the conclusion at the very best is that Austin population had been flat for years. It's now growing back, and the prices will react with a lag of 2-3 years.
    - 1y ago

bazingakiller 1y ago

[flagged]

cyberax 1y ago

Austin is a success story in the same way Detroit is. Austin population cratered and it still has not recovered to 2020 level. That's why the housing costs there decreased. In other words: force citizens out of your city, and the price will fall.

verall 1y ago
This is not true, I don't know if you live here or why you repeat it. Population has receded slightly in the last couple years in Austin proper, is still greater than 2020, and the metro area has not shrunk year over year at all, although growth has slowed.
- cyberax 1y ago
  > This is not true, I don't know if you live here or why you repeat it. Population by year: 2019: 978,763 2020 high estimate for Jan 1 (996,369) - https://austin.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-15-20-austin-population-explode-past-1-million-by-summer-2020/ https://austin.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-15-20-austin... 2020: 961,855 (Census, low mark) 2023: 979,882 2024 (estimated high mark): 986,928 So yes, the population cratered from a high in early 2020. This brought down prices with a 2 year lag, as owners started to get rid of empty units. The prices will come right back up now, that the population is recovering.
  - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
    Down 4% is not "cratered". Detroit is "cratered".
  - verall 1y ago
    You're comparing different estimate sources and still ignoring that someone moving to round rock or ceder park is still a part of the housing pressure for the city of Austin. A low-single-digit push to local burbs happened all over the country. "Austin" in the same way people discuss "Houston" or "Chicago" i.e. the local metro area has grown every year.
    - cyberax 1y ago
      There are different sources (and I pointed that out), but they all show that the population has been at most flat. The suburbs migration IS the point. The suburbs are a superior model when it's made possible by de-urbanization of workplaces, and it shows. The price in the suburbs of Austin has been growing.
renewiltord 1y ago
ACS, the Decennial Census, and the Austin Demographer has the data we need. Let's take a look https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B01003?q=B01003:+TOTAL+POPULATION&g=160XX00US4805000 https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B01003?q=B01003:+T... and https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALPL2020.P1?q=P1:+TOTAL+POPULATION&g=160XX00US4805000 https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALPL2020.P1?q=P1:+TOTAL... (no ACS in 2020 because of COVID, but we got the Census) and https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/ https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/ You'll see that the ACS 1-year was not performed and released in 2020 due to data quality 2015: 931840 2016: 947897 2017: 950714 2018: 964243 2019: 979263 2020: 961855 (Decennial Census), 965,872 (ACS 5-year, not comparable to 1-year), 996369 (Austin City Demographer) 2021: 964000 2022: 975335 2023: 979700 2025: 1025668 I think there is no single source that shows population decrease post 2020 to a value in 2020 from the same source. But the sources do differ, so likely what has happened is that you have not performed proper data hygiene. You cannot regress across sources without compensating for cross-source differences. In this case we have the property that 2021 onwards shows increase in ACS and that Austin Demographics shows increase from 2020 onwards but that there is difference between 2020 numbers between sources. We also see that Austin Demographer has higher number in 2019 than ACS sample https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/documents/cf1519ab5f244c369615422df2e41b4c/explore https://demographics-austin.hub.arcgis.com/documents/cf1519a... This means it's probably not good idea to compare 2023 ACS number to 2020 Austin Demographer number. Fortunately, we have Austin Demographer number from 2019, 2020, and 2025. From all this, we can conclude that cratering hypothesis is likely false. We must conclude that following statement of yours is unlikely: > Austin population cratered and it still has not recovered to 2020 level.
- cyberax 1y ago
  Perhaps you shouldn't use ChatGPT without checking sources? The purported 2025 number is actually: "Population for City of Austin Full and Limited Purpose Boundaries, 2023". I indicated that the sources are different. And the conclusion at the very best is that Austin population had been flat for years. It's now growing back, and the prices will react with a lag of 2-3 years.
  - 1y ago