3 ms·

> And it's on track to get a lot better. Production for sodium ion batteries is starting to come online in China. It will be a while before those make it to the

• nicoburns 1y ago
  What counts as "soon" is pretty subjective of course, but $10/kWh is only 3 halving's from $80/kWh. So it wouldn't be too surprising if $80/kWh in 2026 corresponded to $10/kWh in 2030.
  • jillesvangurp 1y ago
    2030 only five years. And the original was not a typo. But it is a best case prediction. Whether that's 2028 or 2038 is a bit immaterial. What matters here is the basic principle that sodium ion batteries don't contain any hard to get or expensive materials. So the materials are cheap to source and the manufacturing process is well understood and should benefit from economies of scale, learning effects, etc. The point is that prices are coming down and the further these come down the worse it gets for gas. It's also worth noting that we've been on a bit of a journey with solar panels. Prices for those have also fallen quite a bit in the last decade and might fall further. That puts any investments to do with gas plants solidly under water within just a few years. Which is why there is a reluctance in the market to invest in that sort of thing despite considerable political pressure in parts of the US to do so.