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The great problem of intelligence is that collection will tell you capability but not intent. During a war, capabilities tend to be used. Finding out that the e

The great problem of intelligence is that collection will tell you capability but not intent. During a war, capabilities tend to be used. Finding out that the enemy has massed forces somewhere or has a new weapon indicates something is about to happen. During peacetime, there's mostly unused capability, and preparations take place that don't result in actual conflict. Military assets are built and trained, but not being used. Intent may exist only in the mind of the leader and may change rapidly. This often frustrates decision-makers, who want intelligence to tell them what's going to happen.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> great problem of intelligence is that collection will tell you capability but not intent We had a pretty clear picture of intent in the build-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Different countries have historically been skillful in different elements of intelligence. American geospatial and signals intelligence is renowned. Our human intellignece, on the other hand, has been crap in the modern era. I would be wary about projecting the strengths and weaknesses of the American IC to intelligence as a whole.
- ArnoVW 1y ago
  don't know why you were voted down. You are right, the intent was clear, thanks to geospatial and signals intelligence. Given the amount of amunition, medical teams, blood reserves, etc, it was clear that they were not staging an excercise. Unfortunately the Americans lost all credibility after the Gulf war. History is a bitch.
- scythe 1y ago
  There was already a war on the border of Russia and Ukraine in 2022. The Donbas conflict from 2014-22 took thousands of lives and devastated several towns.
cess11 1y ago
The US hasn't seen peacetime in a very long time.
- dylan604 1y ago
  That's by design of the military industrial complex that we were distinctly clearly warned against. Also, it's very hard to convey not being peacetime when all of the fighting is thousands of miles away across various oceans where the US citizens are not affected by it. By all accounts of the US citizens, it's been very peaceful. We haven't even had to ration food, metals, or any other type of sacrificial gestures. We've had tax break after tax break, so the citizens haven't even had to make financial sacrifices to pay for the fighting. There's been no media blitz to "support the war effort" by buying war bonds. So by all means, it has been quite peaceful for the citizens. Sure, some soldiers are getting killed like soldiers are prone to do, and that affects some of the US citizens, but that's still a very small percentage. A larger percentage are affected by drunk drivers, distracted drivers, or other auto accidents.
  - cess11 1y ago
    "We haven't even had to ration food, metals, or any other type of sacrificial gestures." More than ten percent of the population is on SNAP and everything is corn, but there is no food rationing? Usians toil under an absurd lack of welfare, but that's not a sacrifice? Starving public services through "tax breaks" is not sacrificial?
    - ted_bunny 1y ago
      All true, but more likely as a design for social control than a reaction to MIC financial pressures.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> great problem of intelligence is that collection will tell you capability but not intent We had a pretty clear picture of intent in the build-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Different countries have historically been skillful in different elements of intelligence. American geospatial and signals intelligence is renowned. Our human intellignece, on the other hand, has been crap in the modern era. I would be wary about projecting the strengths and weaknesses of the American IC to intelligence as a whole.

ArnoVW 1y ago
don't know why you were voted down. You are right, the intent was clear, thanks to geospatial and signals intelligence. Given the amount of amunition, medical teams, blood reserves, etc, it was clear that they were not staging an excercise. Unfortunately the Americans lost all credibility after the Gulf war. History is a bitch.
scythe 1y ago
There was already a war on the border of Russia and Ukraine in 2022. The Donbas conflict from 2014-22 took thousands of lives and devastated several towns.

cess11 1y ago

The US hasn't seen peacetime in a very long time.

dylan604 1y ago
That's by design of the military industrial complex that we were distinctly clearly warned against. Also, it's very hard to convey not being peacetime when all of the fighting is thousands of miles away across various oceans where the US citizens are not affected by it. By all accounts of the US citizens, it's been very peaceful. We haven't even had to ration food, metals, or any other type of sacrificial gestures. We've had tax break after tax break, so the citizens haven't even had to make financial sacrifices to pay for the fighting. There's been no media blitz to "support the war effort" by buying war bonds. So by all means, it has been quite peaceful for the citizens. Sure, some soldiers are getting killed like soldiers are prone to do, and that affects some of the US citizens, but that's still a very small percentage. A larger percentage are affected by drunk drivers, distracted drivers, or other auto accidents.
- cess11 1y ago
  "We haven't even had to ration food, metals, or any other type of sacrificial gestures." More than ten percent of the population is on SNAP and everything is corn, but there is no food rationing? Usians toil under an absurd lack of welfare, but that's not a sacrifice? Starving public services through "tax breaks" is not sacrificial?
  - ted_bunny 1y ago
    All true, but more likely as a design for social control than a reaction to MIC financial pressures.