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In other places outside US, cost of gas electricity is not 40/MWh. In Germany for example, the cost of natural gas power plants is 110 to 170 Euros/MWh. For so

In other places outside US, cost of gas electricity is not 40/MWh. In Germany for example, the cost of natural gas power plants is 110 to 170 Euros/MWh. For solar in Germany, it is 37 Euro/MWh to 80 Euros/MWh not including storage.

rapsey 1y ago
Yeah ok but without storage you are comparing apples to oranges. Even with storage it is barely comparable. Since even with batteries you can't provide power 24/7.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  This is factually inaccurate. At solar and storage costs today, they are cheaper than existing fossil generation in all of Europe. In the US, even at today's low fossil gas prices, they are competitive. They will become even more competitive over the next several years as the price of solar and batteries continues to decline, and the US fossil gas market is exposed to global demand via LNG exports. Renewables prices will keep going down, fossil costs will keep going up, very broadly speaking. Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). "Excess" renewables that are curtailed during low demand seasons solve for near term storage as the storage manufacturing/deployment ramp curves upward and the price decline curves downward. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electricity-beats-lowest-cost-fossil-fuel-even-without-tax-credits/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electri... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e... https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-union/ https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-unio... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-biggest-power-source-for-the-first-time-ever/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-bigges...
  - sofixa 1y ago
    > Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). As long as you keep the gas peaker plants operating for those few months every couple of years with overcast, low wind weather (e.g. in 2021: https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-winds-mean-for-the-future-energy-grid-170135 https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-w... ) which severely limits a lot of the renewable output. Or you don't have an unpredicted peak/drop and the whole grid fails over (cf. Iberia a few months back). Handwaving very complex problems as "it's a myth" won't make it go away.
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      > Handwaving very complex problems as "it's a myth" won't make it go away. Having evidence that the problem is tractable, while observing the continued rate of deployment of generation and storage, as well as their cost decline rates, is arguably not handwaving anything away. Simply follow along observing China as they continue to prove out the thesis ahead of developed countries. Enough sunlight falls on Earth in ~30 minutes to power humanity for a year. Everything else is capture, transmission, and storage. China launches world’s first grid-forming sodium-ion battery storage plant - https://www.ess-news.com/2025/06/03/china-launches-worlds-first-grid-forming-sodium-ion-battery-storage-plant/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/06/03/china-launches-worlds-fi... - June 3rd, 2025 ("With a total investment of over CNY 460 million ($63.8 million) and occupying 34,000 square metres, the Baochi plant is designed for an installed capacity of 200MW/400MWh. Based on a dual daily charge-discharge cycle, it can regulate up to 580 GWh annually — enough to power 270,000 households, with 98 per cent of its energy sourced from renewables. The facility supports more than 30 local wind and solar power stations, alleviating the impact of intermittent supply and facilitating the integration of high shares of renewables into the grid.") How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://www.ft.com/content/e1a232c7-52a0-44dd-a13b-c4af54e74282 https://www.ft.com/content/e1a232c7-52a0-44dd-a13b-c4af54e74... | https://archive.today/OSFYo https://archive.today/OSFYo - May 20th, 2025
- ben_w 1y ago
  More like comparing fresh apples to preserved dried apples, in that PV is still useful even without storage until it exceeds ~100% of daytime demand; and even then pumped hydro is like a fridge or something similar to put the fresh apples in, because you got it anyway for unrealated reasons.
- destitude 1y ago
  Not sure why you say this. I'm on solar + batteries 24/7 365 days a year. Use no fossil fuels. Even had utility company remove power poles from my place.
  - rapsey 1y ago
    Yeah for some parts of the world that is possible. Not for most of europe.
    - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
      Probably pretty doable in Europe. For one most people don't have air conditioning and that's a big suck of electricity. And if you aren't using electric for heat then realistically your electric draw is not going to be that high
      - throwaway473825 1y ago
        Heating generally uses much more energy than cooling, and even more so if something is burned. However, it's true that places with low heat pump adoption tend to have few ACs. For example, ACs are rarer in Germany than in Norway, despite Germany being warmer.
NalNezumi 1y ago
Where did you get the 110 - 170 figure from? According to [1] (figure 5, 6) its at the maximum, around 80€ MWh. Am I looking at the wrong stats? [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Natural_gas_price_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
- marsokod 1y ago
  Not the parent, but I believe they were talking about LCOE, or total cost including building the plant and operating it. So that will be the cost of natural gas plus the rest amortized.
  - triknomeister 1y ago
    Yes. It would be LCOE for both solar and gas.

rapsey 1y ago

Yeah ok but without storage you are comparing apples to oranges. Even with storage it is barely comparable. Since even with batteries you can't provide power 24/7.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
This is factually inaccurate. At solar and storage costs today, they are cheaper than existing fossil generation in all of Europe. In the US, even at today's low fossil gas prices, they are competitive. They will become even more competitive over the next several years as the price of solar and batteries continues to decline, and the US fossil gas market is exposed to global demand via LNG exports. Renewables prices will keep going down, fossil costs will keep going up, very broadly speaking. Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). "Excess" renewables that are curtailed during low demand seasons solve for near term storage as the storage manufacturing/deployment ramp curves upward and the price decline curves downward. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electricity-beats-lowest-cost-fossil-fuel-even-without-tax-credits/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electri... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e... https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-union/ https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-unio... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-biggest-power-source-for-the-first-time-ever/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-bigges...
- sofixa 1y ago
  > Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). As long as you keep the gas peaker plants operating for those few months every couple of years with overcast, low wind weather (e.g. in 2021: https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-winds-mean-for-the-future-energy-grid-170135 https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-w... ) which severely limits a lot of the renewable output. Or you don't have an unpredicted peak/drop and the whole grid fails over (cf. Iberia a few months back). Handwaving very complex problems as "it's a myth" won't make it go away.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    > Handwaving very complex problems as "it's a myth" won't make it go away. Having evidence that the problem is tractable, while observing the continued rate of deployment of generation and storage, as well as their cost decline rates, is arguably not handwaving anything away. Simply follow along observing China as they continue to prove out the thesis ahead of developed countries. Enough sunlight falls on Earth in ~30 minutes to power humanity for a year. Everything else is capture, transmission, and storage. China launches world’s first grid-forming sodium-ion battery storage plant - https://www.ess-news.com/2025/06/03/china-launches-worlds-first-grid-forming-sodium-ion-battery-storage-plant/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/06/03/china-launches-worlds-fi... - June 3rd, 2025 ("With a total investment of over CNY 460 million ($63.8 million) and occupying 34,000 square metres, the Baochi plant is designed for an installed capacity of 200MW/400MWh. Based on a dual daily charge-discharge cycle, it can regulate up to 580 GWh annually — enough to power 270,000 households, with 98 per cent of its energy sourced from renewables. The facility supports more than 30 local wind and solar power stations, alleviating the impact of intermittent supply and facilitating the integration of high shares of renewables into the grid.") How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://www.ft.com/content/e1a232c7-52a0-44dd-a13b-c4af54e74282 https://www.ft.com/content/e1a232c7-52a0-44dd-a13b-c4af54e74... | https://archive.today/OSFYo https://archive.today/OSFYo - May 20th, 2025
ben_w 1y ago
More like comparing fresh apples to preserved dried apples, in that PV is still useful even without storage until it exceeds ~100% of daytime demand; and even then pumped hydro is like a fridge or something similar to put the fresh apples in, because you got it anyway for unrealated reasons.
destitude 1y ago
Not sure why you say this. I'm on solar + batteries 24/7 365 days a year. Use no fossil fuels. Even had utility company remove power poles from my place.
- rapsey 1y ago
  Yeah for some parts of the world that is possible. Not for most of europe.
  - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
    Probably pretty doable in Europe. For one most people don't have air conditioning and that's a big suck of electricity. And if you aren't using electric for heat then realistically your electric draw is not going to be that high
    - throwaway473825 1y ago
      Heating generally uses much more energy than cooling, and even more so if something is burned. However, it's true that places with low heat pump adoption tend to have few ACs. For example, ACs are rarer in Germany than in Norway, despite Germany being warmer.

NalNezumi 1y ago

Where did you get the 110 - 170 figure from? According to [1] (figure 5, 6) its at the maximum, around 80€ MWh. Am I looking at the wrong stats? [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Natural_gas_price_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

marsokod 1y ago
Not the parent, but I believe they were talking about LCOE, or total cost including building the plant and operating it. So that will be the cost of natural gas plus the rest amortized.
- triknomeister 1y ago
  Yes. It would be LCOE for both solar and gas.