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This is a lot of words to say “solar + battery lcoe is $70/MWH and gas is $40/MWH, but most places outside the U.S. don’t have access to tons of cheap gas so it

This is a lot of words to say “solar + battery lcoe is $70/MWH and gas is $40/MWH, but most places outside the U.S. don’t have access to tons of cheap gas so it’s more expensive there” And no, they are wrong, gas is still currently cheaper ($40 is less than $70)

rstuart4133 1y ago
> This is a lot of words to say “solar + battery lcoe is $70/MWH and gas is $40/MWH, No, that isn't what the article says. I'll quote it for you: I think it was around $70 for new gas. It was a weighted US average — from memory, but I might be wrong on that. I suspect your $40/MWH isn't LCOE, it's the marginal cost of producing an extra MWH from an existing plant. A second problem they don't mention for gas is the demand is so high, the wait time for a new turbine is around 4 years. Batteries on the other hand can be bought with very short lead times.
- bjourne 1y ago
  Lazard agrees with you: https://www.lazard.com/media/uounhon4/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2025.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/uounhon4/lazards-lcoeplus-june-... Marginal costs of $108 for gas peaking and $31 for combined cycle. $48-$107 actual LCOE ($77.5 average).
triknomeister 1y ago
In other places outside US, cost of gas electricity is not 40/MWh. In Germany for example, the cost of natural gas power plants is 110 to 170 Euros/MWh. For solar in Germany, it is 37 Euro/MWh to 80 Euros/MWh not including storage.
- rapsey 1y ago
  Yeah ok but without storage you are comparing apples to oranges. Even with storage it is barely comparable. Since even with batteries you can't provide power 24/7.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    This is factually inaccurate. At solar and storage costs today, they are cheaper than existing fossil generation in all of Europe. In the US, even at today's low fossil gas prices, they are competitive. They will become even more competitive over the next several years as the price of solar and batteries continues to decline, and the US fossil gas market is exposed to global demand via LNG exports. Renewables prices will keep going down, fossil costs will keep going up, very broadly speaking. Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). "Excess" renewables that are curtailed during low demand seasons solve for near term storage as the storage manufacturing/deployment ramp curves upward and the price decline curves downward. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electricity-beats-lowest-cost-fossil-fuel-even-without-tax-credits/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electri... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e... https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-union/ https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-unio... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-biggest-power-source-for-the-first-time-ever/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-bigges...
    - sofixa 1y ago
      > Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). As long as you keep the gas peaker plants operating for those few months every couple of years with overcast, low wind weather (e.g. in 2021: https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-winds-mean-for-the-future-energy-grid-170135 https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-w... ) which severely limits a lot of the renewable output. Or you don't have an unpredicted peak/drop and the whole grid fails over (cf. Iberia a few months back). Handwaving very complex problems as "it's a myth" won't make it go away.
- NalNezumi 1y ago
  Where did you get the 110 - 170 figure from? According to [1] (figure 5, 6) its at the maximum, around 80€ MWh. Am I looking at the wrong stats? [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Natural_gas_price_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
  - marsokod 1y ago
    Not the parent, but I believe they were talking about LCOE, or total cost including building the plant and operating it. So that will be the cost of natural gas plus the rest amortized.
    - triknomeister 1y ago
      Yes. It would be LCOE for both solar and gas.
burkaman 1y ago
Where is your $40/mwh figure from? The claim in the podcast is that average LCOE for new gas in the US is "around $76, $78" or "around $70".
- zdragnar 1y ago
  Combined cycle can be as low as $37 during low price periods of natural gas; combustion cycle is around or higher than the $70 in the podcast. Dedicated peaker plants can be much more expensive depending on the design.
  - burkaman 1y ago
    Where are your numbers from? "during low price periods" doesn't really make sense here, we're talking about LCOE which is the average cost over the lifetime of a plant.
    - zdragnar 1y ago
      LCOE is entirely fictional unless looking at a dead plant. Anyone who claims to know what natural gas prices will be over the lifetime of a plant should be avoided at all costs. If you want numbers, search Google and find your preferred sources. It'll take all of 10 seconds, I promise.

rstuart4133 1y ago

> This is a lot of words to say “solar + battery lcoe is $70/MWH and gas is $40/MWH, No, that isn't what the article says. I'll quote it for you: I think it was around $70 for new gas. It was a weighted US average — from memory, but I might be wrong on that. I suspect your $40/MWH isn't LCOE, it's the marginal cost of producing an extra MWH from an existing plant. A second problem they don't mention for gas is the demand is so high, the wait time for a new turbine is around 4 years. Batteries on the other hand can be bought with very short lead times.

bjourne 1y ago
Lazard agrees with you: https://www.lazard.com/media/uounhon4/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2025.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/uounhon4/lazards-lcoeplus-june-... Marginal costs of $108 for gas peaking and $31 for combined cycle. $48-$107 actual LCOE ($77.5 average).

triknomeister 1y ago

In other places outside US, cost of gas electricity is not 40/MWh. In Germany for example, the cost of natural gas power plants is 110 to 170 Euros/MWh. For solar in Germany, it is 37 Euro/MWh to 80 Euros/MWh not including storage.

rapsey 1y ago
Yeah ok but without storage you are comparing apples to oranges. Even with storage it is barely comparable. Since even with batteries you can't provide power 24/7.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  This is factually inaccurate. At solar and storage costs today, they are cheaper than existing fossil generation in all of Europe. In the US, even at today's low fossil gas prices, they are competitive. They will become even more competitive over the next several years as the price of solar and batteries continues to decline, and the US fossil gas market is exposed to global demand via LNG exports. Renewables prices will keep going down, fossil costs will keep going up, very broadly speaking. Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). "Excess" renewables that are curtailed during low demand seasons solve for near term storage as the storage manufacturing/deployment ramp curves upward and the price decline curves downward. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electricity-beats-lowest-cost-fossil-fuel-even-without-tax-credits/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/01/solar-cost-of-electri... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e... https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-union/ https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-unio... https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-biggest-power-source-for-the-first-time-ever/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-is-eus-bigges...
  - sofixa 1y ago
    > Base load is a myth; as long as you can orchestrate low carbon energy (nuclear + renewables + hydro), storage (hydro and batteries), transmission, and load shifting and shedding, the grid will continue to operate at expected service levels. Europe demonstrates this today with high renewables penetration in Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Germany, and nuclear in France (with robust exports to adjacent grids). As long as you keep the gas peaker plants operating for those few months every couple of years with overcast, low wind weather (e.g. in 2021: https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-winds-mean-for-the-future-energy-grid-170135 https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-w... ) which severely limits a lot of the renewable output. Or you don't have an unpredicted peak/drop and the whole grid fails over (cf. Iberia a few months back). Handwaving very complex problems as "it's a myth" won't make it go away.
NalNezumi 1y ago
Where did you get the 110 - 170 figure from? According to [1] (figure 5, 6) its at the maximum, around 80€ MWh. Am I looking at the wrong stats? [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Natural_gas_price_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
- marsokod 1y ago
  Not the parent, but I believe they were talking about LCOE, or total cost including building the plant and operating it. So that will be the cost of natural gas plus the rest amortized.
  - triknomeister 1y ago
    Yes. It would be LCOE for both solar and gas.

burkaman 1y ago

Where is your $40/mwh figure from? The claim in the podcast is that average LCOE for new gas in the US is "around $76, $78" or "around $70".

zdragnar 1y ago
Combined cycle can be as low as $37 during low price periods of natural gas; combustion cycle is around or higher than the $70 in the podcast. Dedicated peaker plants can be much more expensive depending on the design.
- burkaman 1y ago
  Where are your numbers from? "during low price periods" doesn't really make sense here, we're talking about LCOE which is the average cost over the lifetime of a plant.
  - zdragnar 1y ago
    LCOE is entirely fictional unless looking at a dead plant. Anyone who claims to know what natural gas prices will be over the lifetime of a plant should be avoided at all costs. If you want numbers, search Google and find your preferred sources. It'll take all of 10 seconds, I promise.