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yes, I suspect a version of the GFW may emerge from EU red tape - a 'great thicket' perhaps? However, I suspect Trump will go ape and force the EU to back down,

yes, I suspect a version of the GFW may emerge from EU red tape - a 'great thicket' perhaps? However, I suspect Trump will go ape and force the EU to back down, like they already have by dropping Digital Tax. I think EU Great Firewall can only happen inadvertently now, the governments are too dependent on the voting public (being democracies) and now also too dominated by the US. Permanent vassalage is the end point, though this time w/o any prospect of influence to the center

alephnerd 1y ago
> I suspect a version of the GFW may emerge from EU red tape - a 'great thicket' perhaps Barely. There's a reason American bigtech FDI within the EU has largely coalesced around Ireland, Poland, Czechia, Romania, and Bulgaria - they rolled out the red carpet and tried to reduce any acrimony that American companies might have. They are also the most lax with enforcing EU digital regulations, as enforcement falls under national sovereignity. > I suspect Trump will go ape and force the EU to back down, like they already have by dropping Digital Tax Pretty much. BigTech can afford GRC, not startups. VC overwhelmingly backed Trump for this reason as Vance promised to fight digital export barriers (and largely delivered in the UK and Canada) > Permanent vassalage is the end point, though this time w/o any prospect of influence to the center I'm not sure. I think what will happen is the return of the primacy of individual states trying to curry favor with major powers, which has already started to happen. Look at Hungary rolling the red carpet to Chinese FDI as a bulwark against the EU; Czechia and the Baltics adopting an avowedly pro-Taiwan stance in order to curry favor from the US; and Italy+Greece leveraging IMEC to re-negotiate better terms on OBOR-related investments from the 2010s. In most context, "Europe" has almost always been used to denote Germany Inc. I wouldn't be surprised if Wang Yi ranted this exact same thing to Kallas during their 4 hour meeting which apparently lead to the entire China-EU summit being canceled. Similar incidents arose with American, Turkish, and Indian negotiators as well, all of whom prefer to work directly with national leaders instead of the EU leadership. European countries now need to choose between the US or China. There is no other way.

alephnerd 1y ago

> I suspect a version of the GFW may emerge from EU red tape - a 'great thicket' perhaps Barely. There's a reason American bigtech FDI within the EU has largely coalesced around Ireland, Poland, Czechia, Romania, and Bulgaria - they rolled out the red carpet and tried to reduce any acrimony that American companies might have. They are also the most lax with enforcing EU digital regulations, as enforcement falls under national sovereignity. > I suspect Trump will go ape and force the EU to back down, like they already have by dropping Digital Tax Pretty much. BigTech can afford GRC, not startups. VC overwhelmingly backed Trump for this reason as Vance promised to fight digital export barriers (and largely delivered in the UK and Canada) > Permanent vassalage is the end point, though this time w/o any prospect of influence to the center I'm not sure. I think what will happen is the return of the primacy of individual states trying to curry favor with major powers, which has already started to happen. Look at Hungary rolling the red carpet to Chinese FDI as a bulwark against the EU; Czechia and the Baltics adopting an avowedly pro-Taiwan stance in order to curry favor from the US; and Italy+Greece leveraging IMEC to re-negotiate better terms on OBOR-related investments from the 2010s. In most context, "Europe" has almost always been used to denote Germany Inc. I wouldn't be surprised if Wang Yi ranted this exact same thing to Kallas during their 4 hour meeting which apparently lead to the entire China-EU summit being canceled. Similar incidents arose with American, Turkish, and Indian negotiators as well, all of whom prefer to work directly with national leaders instead of the EU leadership. European countries now need to choose between the US or China. There is no other way.