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EU obviously needs a Great Firewall - this would force foreign big tech to host data within the EU and subject these companies to ironclad EU legal jurisdiction

EU obviously needs a Great Firewall - this would force foreign big tech to host data within the EU and subject these companies to ironclad EU legal jurisdiction. Naturally, some companies will not comply and withdraw services, clearing the way for domestic EU operators to emerge. This may seem like an unpalatable choice but it really is the only way back toward digital sovereignty - right now, the EU has been in 'trust me bro' situation with US big tech - a huge and accumulative risk

alephnerd 1y ago
They are trying with the Digital Privacy shield, but the issue is there is no domestic alternative to act as an alternative to the US. And a grand bargain with China is highly unlikely given Wang Yi's recent visit with Kaja Kallas [0] where he announced Chinese moral support for Russia in Ukraine, which is diametrically opposed to the EU's foreign policy, while Von der Leyen condemned China for providing unrestricted support to Russia and causing industrial overcapacity [1]. Unlike Japan or South Korea, the EU holds no cards that it can leverage against the US or China - JP and SK can offer China a trilateral FTA which acts as a negotiating tool against the US, and SK+Japan can offer additonal military support for the US within the APAC domain which can act as a negotiating tool against China. What can the entire EU offer either US or China which cannot be vetoed by a COE member. The EU has an added issue that the COE requires unanimity amongst heads of state to pass EU wide legislation, and US FDI representing €900B in inward FDI stock [2] within Ireland means there is a guaranteed veto against any tech decoupling. It's a similar story in Czechia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria as well. [0] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch... [1] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3317442/von-der-leyen-deepens-gloom-over-china-eu-summit-attack-beijings-russia-stance?module=inline&pgtype=article https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3317442/vo... [2] - https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-fdi/foreigndirectinvestmentinireland2023/intro/ https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-fdi/forei...
- tsimionescu 1y ago
  > The EU has an added issue that the COE requires unanimity amongst heads of state to pass EU wide legislation This is vaguely similar to the truth, at best. The Council of Europe (CoE) has nothing to do with the EU, you're probably confusing it with the European Council (EUCO). But the EC is not normally involved in the legislative process. Instead, EU legislation is proposed by the European Comission (EC) and must be accepted by both the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. The Council of Ministers is the closest body to what you probably meant, but it's made up of heads of government of member states, not the heads of state. It also doesn't require unanimity to pass a law - it takes at least 4 countries to outright block legislation. There is a procedure in which a single country which is unhappy with a law passing can raise this to the EUCO for additional review, but it doesn't apply to ordinary legislation. So, no, Ireland can't unilaterally block any such legislation, it has to convince other countries to join in.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    > The Council of Europe (CoE) has nothing to do with the EU, you're probably confusing it with the European Council (EUCO) Yes! Thanks for the correction! I did mean the Council of Ministers > So, no, Ireland can't unilaterally block any such legislation, it has to convince other countries to join in Yep, but my point still stands. Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Bulgaria have overwhelmingly profited from FDI from American BigTech players - they were the largest winners in the GCC and outsourcing rush of the early-to-mid 2020s due to very pro-business subsidizes and tax incentives. Ireland has also continued to overwhelmingly profit from it's very American business friendly tax legislation. All these countries have enough pull together to push back on any attempts at coercing American tech companies in a manner that other EU members may want. Furthermore, they themselves have shown how the EU can better attract American companies to build a European presence - they need to become friendly to FDI and foreign players potentially dominating a market. The issue is Germany and France (logically) tend to oppose this as their own domestic competitors are getting undercut.
- hunglee2 1y ago
  yes, I suspect a version of the GFW may emerge from EU red tape - a 'great thicket' perhaps? However, I suspect Trump will go ape and force the EU to back down, like they already have by dropping Digital Tax. I think EU Great Firewall can only happen inadvertently now, the governments are too dependent on the voting public (being democracies) and now also too dominated by the US. Permanent vassalage is the end point, though this time w/o any prospect of influence to the center
GuB-42 1y ago
The EU is not a single country, every member is a sovereign country and there is no "EU jurisdiction". The EU only provide directives that each member state adapt to their legal framework. Each country decides on their own policy regarding internet access, and it is very unlikely that a directive that have them go through some central EU-controlled firewall would pass.

alephnerd 1y ago

They are trying with the Digital Privacy shield, but the issue is there is no domestic alternative to act as an alternative to the US. And a grand bargain with China is highly unlikely given Wang Yi's recent visit with Kaja Kallas [0] where he announced Chinese moral support for Russia in Ukraine, which is diametrically opposed to the EU's foreign policy, while Von der Leyen condemned China for providing unrestricted support to Russia and causing industrial overcapacity [1]. Unlike Japan or South Korea, the EU holds no cards that it can leverage against the US or China - JP and SK can offer China a trilateral FTA which acts as a negotiating tool against the US, and SK+Japan can offer additonal military support for the US within the APAC domain which can act as a negotiating tool against China. What can the entire EU offer either US or China which cannot be vetoed by a COE member. The EU has an added issue that the COE requires unanimity amongst heads of state to pass EU wide legislation, and US FDI representing €900B in inward FDI stock [2] within Ireland means there is a guaranteed veto against any tech decoupling. It's a similar story in Czechia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria as well. [0] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch... [1] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3317442/von-der-leyen-deepens-gloom-over-china-eu-summit-attack-beijings-russia-stance?module=inline&pgtype=article https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3317442/vo... [2] - https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-fdi/foreigndirectinvestmentinireland2023/intro/ https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-fdi/forei...

tsimionescu 1y ago
> The EU has an added issue that the COE requires unanimity amongst heads of state to pass EU wide legislation This is vaguely similar to the truth, at best. The Council of Europe (CoE) has nothing to do with the EU, you're probably confusing it with the European Council (EUCO). But the EC is not normally involved in the legislative process. Instead, EU legislation is proposed by the European Comission (EC) and must be accepted by both the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. The Council of Ministers is the closest body to what you probably meant, but it's made up of heads of government of member states, not the heads of state. It also doesn't require unanimity to pass a law - it takes at least 4 countries to outright block legislation. There is a procedure in which a single country which is unhappy with a law passing can raise this to the EUCO for additional review, but it doesn't apply to ordinary legislation. So, no, Ireland can't unilaterally block any such legislation, it has to convince other countries to join in.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  > The Council of Europe (CoE) has nothing to do with the EU, you're probably confusing it with the European Council (EUCO) Yes! Thanks for the correction! I did mean the Council of Ministers > So, no, Ireland can't unilaterally block any such legislation, it has to convince other countries to join in Yep, but my point still stands. Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Bulgaria have overwhelmingly profited from FDI from American BigTech players - they were the largest winners in the GCC and outsourcing rush of the early-to-mid 2020s due to very pro-business subsidizes and tax incentives. Ireland has also continued to overwhelmingly profit from it's very American business friendly tax legislation. All these countries have enough pull together to push back on any attempts at coercing American tech companies in a manner that other EU members may want. Furthermore, they themselves have shown how the EU can better attract American companies to build a European presence - they need to become friendly to FDI and foreign players potentially dominating a market. The issue is Germany and France (logically) tend to oppose this as their own domestic competitors are getting undercut.
hunglee2 1y ago
yes, I suspect a version of the GFW may emerge from EU red tape - a 'great thicket' perhaps? However, I suspect Trump will go ape and force the EU to back down, like they already have by dropping Digital Tax. I think EU Great Firewall can only happen inadvertently now, the governments are too dependent on the voting public (being democracies) and now also too dominated by the US. Permanent vassalage is the end point, though this time w/o any prospect of influence to the center

GuB-42 1y ago

The EU is not a single country, every member is a sovereign country and there is no "EU jurisdiction". The EU only provide directives that each member state adapt to their legal framework. Each country decides on their own policy regarding internet access, and it is very unlikely that a directive that have them go through some central EU-controlled firewall would pass.