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He demonstrated that electric cars are viable. Or that rockets can be reused. But he also started the tunnel company that went nowhere, claimed we'd have fully

by kubb 1y ago

He demonstrated that electric cars are viable. Or that rockets can be reused. But he also started the tunnel company that went nowhere, claimed we'd have fully autonomous self-driving by now, and for some reason lied about being good at video games. I wish we'd see some nuance in this figure, and realize he's more self-serving than benevolent.

rsynnott 1y ago
Possibly you omitted an (in America) from your original post? The first practical lithium ion battery car was either the Nissan Leaf or a weird Renault, depending on how you define practical (the Renault Zoe was built on the same platform as the weird Renault whose name I can’t remember , but came out about a year later). Both came out before the model S (though I think not in the US). Really, the electric car revolution, such as it is, was largely driven by battery tech; lithium ion batteries crossed a threshold from not good enough (there were electric cars based on such batteries, notably some weird VW Golfs, but they did not sell well) to good enough. The rocket thing was more business case than tech; both the US and Soviet Union studied reusable rockets from at least the 70s, but the economics wasn’t compelling.
- llbbdd 1y ago
  I add "in America" to every post on here except the ones about EU tech regulations.
- kubb 1y ago
  I mean yeah I agree with you. What he did doesn't justify the idealized view of him that people have. It's just that he's in the news 24/7 so the perception of his importance and greatness gets imprinted on you regardless of whether you want it or not.
- WalterBright 1y ago
  > US and Soviet Union studied reusable rockets from at least the 70s, but the economics wasn’t compelling. What could be more compelling than reducing launch costs by 90%? "Studying" something and "delivering" something are very different things. > was largely driven by battery tech Regenerative braking was a crucial enabling technology. > The first practical lithium ion battery car was either the Nissan Leaf or a weird Renault Too bad they didn't take the world by storm like Tesla did. Tesla got the formula right, the others did not. The success of the Tesla speaks volumes.
  - rsynnott 1y ago
    > What could be more compelling than reducing launch costs by 90%? You, ah, might be overselling that a bit. An Ariane 5 (20 tonnes to LEO) launch cost about 150 million at the time it was discontinued (launch costs for the new ones are murky as they've only launched a couple of payloads so far). A Proton launch (similar size) costs $65m. Atlas V Heavy (18 tonnes) costs $110-$190m. A Falcon 9 reusable launch (17 tonnes) costs $70m. Like, it's _cheaper_, but nowhere even remotely close to 90%. > Regenerative braking was a crucial enabling technology. Indeed! Given that it was invented in 1886, tho, I'm not sure what it has to do with Tesla. Apparently the first electric car with automatic regenerative braking was in 1967. The first really successful mass-market example would probably be the Toyota Prius (at least for cars; it's shown up in trams for a long, long time). The Leaf, of course, also had regenerative braking. > Too bad they didn't take the world by storm like Tesla did. Again, you're _really_ mostly talking about America. They're a little under 10% of the BEV market in Europe, about 5% in China. They were the best selling manufacturer in Europe for a couple of years, but were never enormously dominant.
    - WalterBright 1y ago
      If everyone else did it before and better, why was Tesla such a breakout success?
      - queenkjuul 1y ago
        The leaf was also a breakout success, you're just pretending it wasn't
        WalterBright 1y ago
        The investors in Tesla think otherwise. The Leaf is nothing like Tesla, as Tesla's success has shown.
    - WalterBright 1y ago
      "Falcon 9’s price per pound to orbit is roughly $2,700, while NASA’s SLS is a whopping $70,000." https://www.technowize.com/how-much-does-a-spacex-rocket-cost-falcon-9-vs-nasas-bill/ https://www.technowize.com/how-much-does-a-spacex-rocket-cos...
leptons 1y ago
The Space Shuttle had reusable rockets. Sorry, Musk didn't invent the idea or even prove it could be done first - that was NASA in the 1970's. He also didn't "demonstrate" the first "viable" electric car, either. There were other electric cars before Tesla that were "viable" (and I don't really care where your goalposts are for that word). He bought his way into Tesla, so it wasn't even his idea - Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Got anything else?
- kubb 1y ago
  I'm not gonna die defending Elon, so you should assume a less combative tone. I absolutely don't love that he has the power that he does and what he does with it. But electric cars are mainstream, he lands reusable rockets, and has a private space company that reaches orbit. People doubted that it will succeed, and he proved them wrong, I guess. It doesn't mean that everything he does will be successful, or that whatever he does is worth doing, or the right thing to do, but he did achieve these things (using his wealth and power).
  - leptons 1y ago
    >so you should assume a less combative tone You should stop assuming someone's tone from a single internet comment, especially when you're making up the tone in your own head. It completely derails the comment thread, because now we have to talk about how you're misreading things and trying to scold someone based on your own assumptions. But maybe your whole intention with your comment was to troll me? Nothing in your comment is really changing any minds. Have a nice day!
    - kubb 1y ago
      I'm ok with not changing your mind, as I said, I don't care for Elon, and honestly people should be way more critical of him.
- WalterBright 1y ago
  > He bought his way into Tesla, so it wasn't even his idea When Musk bought Tesla, Tesla was an office with no design and no car and no money. Technically, Musk did not found Tesla. In any practical sense, he did found it.
WalterBright 1y ago
> he also started the tunnel company that went nowhere The Boring Company has had unexpected success in digging tunnels for cables and other city infrastructure.
- leptons 1y ago
  Boring machines aren't new, nobody doubted he could do it, because it's been done many times before.
  - WalterBright 1y ago
    The Boring Company is making a nice profit doing it, because it's more cost effective.

by kubb 1y ago

rsynnott 1y ago

Possibly you omitted an (in America) from your original post? The first practical lithium ion battery car was either the Nissan Leaf or a weird Renault, depending on how you define practical (the Renault Zoe was built on the same platform as the weird Renault whose name I can’t remember , but came out about a year later). Both came out before the model S (though I think not in the US). Really, the electric car revolution, such as it is, was largely driven by battery tech; lithium ion batteries crossed a threshold from not good enough (there were electric cars based on such batteries, notably some weird VW Golfs, but they did not sell well) to good enough. The rocket thing was more business case than tech; both the US and Soviet Union studied reusable rockets from at least the 70s, but the economics wasn’t compelling.

llbbdd 1y ago
I add "in America" to every post on here except the ones about EU tech regulations.
kubb 1y ago
I mean yeah I agree with you. What he did doesn't justify the idealized view of him that people have. It's just that he's in the news 24/7 so the perception of his importance and greatness gets imprinted on you regardless of whether you want it or not.
WalterBright 1y ago
> US and Soviet Union studied reusable rockets from at least the 70s, but the economics wasn’t compelling. What could be more compelling than reducing launch costs by 90%? "Studying" something and "delivering" something are very different things. > was largely driven by battery tech Regenerative braking was a crucial enabling technology. > The first practical lithium ion battery car was either the Nissan Leaf or a weird Renault Too bad they didn't take the world by storm like Tesla did. Tesla got the formula right, the others did not. The success of the Tesla speaks volumes.
- rsynnott 1y ago
  > What could be more compelling than reducing launch costs by 90%? You, ah, might be overselling that a bit. An Ariane 5 (20 tonnes to LEO) launch cost about 150 million at the time it was discontinued (launch costs for the new ones are murky as they've only launched a couple of payloads so far). A Proton launch (similar size) costs $65m. Atlas V Heavy (18 tonnes) costs $110-$190m. A Falcon 9 reusable launch (17 tonnes) costs $70m. Like, it's _cheaper_, but nowhere even remotely close to 90%. > Regenerative braking was a crucial enabling technology. Indeed! Given that it was invented in 1886, tho, I'm not sure what it has to do with Tesla. Apparently the first electric car with automatic regenerative braking was in 1967. The first really successful mass-market example would probably be the Toyota Prius (at least for cars; it's shown up in trams for a long, long time). The Leaf, of course, also had regenerative braking. > Too bad they didn't take the world by storm like Tesla did. Again, you're _really_ mostly talking about America. They're a little under 10% of the BEV market in Europe, about 5% in China. They were the best selling manufacturer in Europe for a couple of years, but were never enormously dominant.
  - WalterBright 1y ago
    If everyone else did it before and better, why was Tesla such a breakout success?
    - queenkjuul 1y ago
      The leaf was also a breakout success, you're just pretending it wasn't
      - WalterBright 1y ago
        The investors in Tesla think otherwise. The Leaf is nothing like Tesla, as Tesla's success has shown.
  - WalterBright 1y ago
    "Falcon 9’s price per pound to orbit is roughly $2,700, while NASA’s SLS is a whopping $70,000." https://www.technowize.com/how-much-does-a-spacex-rocket-cost-falcon-9-vs-nasas-bill/ https://www.technowize.com/how-much-does-a-spacex-rocket-cos...

leptons 1y ago

The Space Shuttle had reusable rockets. Sorry, Musk didn't invent the idea or even prove it could be done first - that was NASA in the 1970's. He also didn't "demonstrate" the first "viable" electric car, either. There were other electric cars before Tesla that were "viable" (and I don't really care where your goalposts are for that word). He bought his way into Tesla, so it wasn't even his idea - Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Got anything else?

kubb 1y ago
I'm not gonna die defending Elon, so you should assume a less combative tone. I absolutely don't love that he has the power that he does and what he does with it. But electric cars are mainstream, he lands reusable rockets, and has a private space company that reaches orbit. People doubted that it will succeed, and he proved them wrong, I guess. It doesn't mean that everything he does will be successful, or that whatever he does is worth doing, or the right thing to do, but he did achieve these things (using his wealth and power).
- leptons 1y ago
  >so you should assume a less combative tone You should stop assuming someone's tone from a single internet comment, especially when you're making up the tone in your own head. It completely derails the comment thread, because now we have to talk about how you're misreading things and trying to scold someone based on your own assumptions. But maybe your whole intention with your comment was to troll me? Nothing in your comment is really changing any minds. Have a nice day!
  - kubb 1y ago
    I'm ok with not changing your mind, as I said, I don't care for Elon, and honestly people should be way more critical of him.
WalterBright 1y ago
> He bought his way into Tesla, so it wasn't even his idea When Musk bought Tesla, Tesla was an office with no design and no car and no money. Technically, Musk did not found Tesla. In any practical sense, he did found it.

WalterBright 1y ago

> he also started the tunnel company that went nowhere The Boring Company has had unexpected success in digging tunnels for cables and other city infrastructure.

leptons 1y ago
Boring machines aren't new, nobody doubted he could do it, because it's been done many times before.
- WalterBright 1y ago
  The Boring Company is making a nice profit doing it, because it's more cost effective.