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We’re assuming that the “silicon shield” is even a thing anymore. China can comfortably make chips that might be the equivalent of 5 year old Taiwanese ones. L

We’re assuming that the “silicon shield” is even a thing anymore. China can comfortably make chips that might be the equivalent of 5 year old Taiwanese ones. Last time I checked, that’s extremely viable. No military general ever is going to say, “we can’t invade, we’re half a decade behind!”

2muchcoffeeman 1y ago
Isn’t the point that other countries would have to think twice before letting China get their hands on Taiwan? The advantage to China would be immense if they secured Taiwan.
- Detrytus 1y ago
  You're assuming that China is afraid of "other countries", or that those countries can do anything to stop them. Truth is, China right now is challenging the US for global dominance, they are afraid of noone. They don't need anyone's permission to "get their hands on Taiwan".
  - justahuman74 1y ago
    What's the likelihood that any TSMC buildings are surviving though if there is an invasion
    - selectodude 1y ago
      It seems to be a pretty well substantiated rumor that TSMC’s fabs are rigged to blow in case of attack.
  - 2muchcoffeeman 1y ago
    No, I’m assuming that they’ll want to get their hands on Taiwan with as little mess as possible and keep the assets intact if possible. If their only choice was to start a global war, I don’t think they’ll do it regardless if they would win or not.
    - Detrytus 1y ago
      Well, that assumption might be wrong as well... Yes, taking control of the TSMC fabs is the best possible outcome for China, but destroying them is also not so bad. It limits the supply of bleeding edge semiconductors to the Western world, giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up.
      - wiseowise 1y ago
        > giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up. Nothing screams “favorable market conditions” like WW3 and sanctions rivaling Russia.
        impossiblefork 1y ago
        WW3 would not be sanctions rivaling those Russia are under. WW3 would be zero trade, submarines sinking the shipping etc. What Russia is under is just sanctions, not real war measures.
        rasz 1y ago
        Except there wont be WW3 over Taiwan. TACO will simply proclaim its not his business.
        impossiblefork 1y ago
        Maybe. It would certainly be good for Intel if Taiwan's and South Korea's microchip manufacturing were destroyed. They'd have a near-total monopoly, like int the 90s. But it would be incredibly stupid strategically. I think only sensible path is to give Taiwan nuclear weapons. It removes all the dangers for ever.
- jacquesm 1y ago
  There is another alternative that is much more likely: China gets to or at near parity and then no longer needs to get their hands on Taiwan. At that point they could just as easily destroy it as that they would want to occupy it. And that is a lot simpler. As long as Taiwan has an edge they are safer than when they are a commodity.
  - pySSK 1y ago
    Kinda like Hong Kong when it came to the finance industry. Agree mostly. Instead of destroy, I would say China wouldn’t need to/care to maintain their fine balance/ special relationship with Taiwan anymore and would throw their weight around more.
Tade0 1y ago
I wouldn't say comfortably - they're brute forcing it by using UV sources suitable for much older nodes. End result requires more energy, has lower yield and is overall more expensive. For military purposes and whatnot that's enough, but they can't put this in consumer devices without subsidies.
- SlowTao 1y ago
  This is true but it has been fascinating seeing them trying to catch up. Necessity being mother of invention, all of that. It is still hard to get much of a clear picture on how well they are doing on this stuff. Chinese companies are saying they are near parity, the opposition says they are 15 years behind, the reality is probably somewhere in between. While they have made a lot of quick progress, that is no guarantee for future gains.
  - Tade0 1y ago
    My worry is that they're not bringing anything new to the table except "this is actually possible if you will it". On the flipside Canon's Nanoimprint Lithography promises lower cost, even if their feature size is 15nm in practice. They also appear to be having competition now: https://www.zyvexlabs.com/apm/atomically-precise-nano-imprint-lithography-a-brief-story/ https://www.zyvexlabs.com/apm/atomically-precise-nano-imprin... Recently Canon shipped the first commercial device and it appears that this path will see continued development. 15nm(14 advertised) is already good enough for, say, automotive applications.
- rasz 1y ago
  MIC2025 made china manufacture over 90% of all semi domestically. They have replacements/clones of every jelly bean part imaginable. China can keep manufacturing like nothing happened if/when Taiwan is erased from the map.

2muchcoffeeman 1y ago

Isn’t the point that other countries would have to think twice before letting China get their hands on Taiwan? The advantage to China would be immense if they secured Taiwan.

Detrytus 1y ago
You're assuming that China is afraid of "other countries", or that those countries can do anything to stop them. Truth is, China right now is challenging the US for global dominance, they are afraid of noone. They don't need anyone's permission to "get their hands on Taiwan".
- justahuman74 1y ago
  What's the likelihood that any TSMC buildings are surviving though if there is an invasion
  - selectodude 1y ago
    It seems to be a pretty well substantiated rumor that TSMC’s fabs are rigged to blow in case of attack.
- 2muchcoffeeman 1y ago
  No, I’m assuming that they’ll want to get their hands on Taiwan with as little mess as possible and keep the assets intact if possible. If their only choice was to start a global war, I don’t think they’ll do it regardless if they would win or not.
  - Detrytus 1y ago
    Well, that assumption might be wrong as well... Yes, taking control of the TSMC fabs is the best possible outcome for China, but destroying them is also not so bad. It limits the supply of bleeding edge semiconductors to the Western world, giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up.
    - wiseowise 1y ago
      > giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up. Nothing screams “favorable market conditions” like WW3 and sanctions rivaling Russia.
      - impossiblefork 1y ago
        WW3 would not be sanctions rivaling those Russia are under. WW3 would be zero trade, submarines sinking the shipping etc. What Russia is under is just sanctions, not real war measures.
        rasz 1y ago
        Except there wont be WW3 over Taiwan. TACO will simply proclaim its not his business.
        impossiblefork 1y ago
        Maybe. It would certainly be good for Intel if Taiwan's and South Korea's microchip manufacturing were destroyed. They'd have a near-total monopoly, like int the 90s. But it would be incredibly stupid strategically. I think only sensible path is to give Taiwan nuclear weapons. It removes all the dangers for ever.
jacquesm 1y ago
There is another alternative that is much more likely: China gets to or at near parity and then no longer needs to get their hands on Taiwan. At that point they could just as easily destroy it as that they would want to occupy it. And that is a lot simpler. As long as Taiwan has an edge they are safer than when they are a commodity.
- pySSK 1y ago
  Kinda like Hong Kong when it came to the finance industry. Agree mostly. Instead of destroy, I would say China wouldn’t need to/care to maintain their fine balance/ special relationship with Taiwan anymore and would throw their weight around more.

Tade0 1y ago

I wouldn't say comfortably - they're brute forcing it by using UV sources suitable for much older nodes. End result requires more energy, has lower yield and is overall more expensive. For military purposes and whatnot that's enough, but they can't put this in consumer devices without subsidies.

SlowTao 1y ago
This is true but it has been fascinating seeing them trying to catch up. Necessity being mother of invention, all of that. It is still hard to get much of a clear picture on how well they are doing on this stuff. Chinese companies are saying they are near parity, the opposition says they are 15 years behind, the reality is probably somewhere in between. While they have made a lot of quick progress, that is no guarantee for future gains.
- Tade0 1y ago
  My worry is that they're not bringing anything new to the table except "this is actually possible if you will it". On the flipside Canon's Nanoimprint Lithography promises lower cost, even if their feature size is 15nm in practice. They also appear to be having competition now: https://www.zyvexlabs.com/apm/atomically-precise-nano-imprint-lithography-a-brief-story/ https://www.zyvexlabs.com/apm/atomically-precise-nano-imprin... Recently Canon shipped the first commercial device and it appears that this path will see continued development. 15nm(14 advertised) is already good enough for, say, automotive applications.
rasz 1y ago
MIC2025 made china manufacture over 90% of all semi domestically. They have replacements/clones of every jelly bean part imaginable. China can keep manufacturing like nothing happened if/when Taiwan is erased from the map.