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> Moore's law is dead People have said this for decades. Jim Keller believes otherwise and brought receipts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIG9ztQw2Gc https
by timschmidt 1y ago
> Moore's law is dead
People have said this for decades. Jim Keller believes otherwise and brought receipts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIG9ztQw2Gc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIG9ztQw2Gc
- SlowTao 1y agoPersonally I wouldn't argue Moore's law is dead but I do wonder about the cost per chip. WE can still push smaller for a lot longer but the costs are starting to creep up a bit. I am not too worried though because adjusted for inflation, we are still saying a lot less for this tech than we were in pre-2000's tech. Economy of scale used to drop prices, complexity of manufacturing will slowly increase them again.
- timschmidt 1y agoSimilar concerns were expressed around the development of VLSI tooling in the '70s. We've been on this curve for a long time. I can speak with some experience that manufacturing of steel and wood products increases similarly in cost and complexity with scale. Beasts like these exist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program As long as the scale of production is increasing, additional investments will be warranted.
- SlowTao 1y agoThat is very fair. We won't know when things finally tip over into a new state until it is in the rear view mirror.