4 ms·
probability is memoryless. If you have been base jumping for 20 years, you have the same risk on your next jump as someone trying it for the first time.
by gdiamos 1y ago
probability is memoryless.
If you have been base jumping for 20 years, you have the same risk on your next jump as someone trying it for the first time.
- jamwil 1y agoYes but you’re answering the wrong question. It’s not, “what is the probability of death on my next jump?”. It’s “what is the accumulated probability of death by jumping repeatedly.” The way you answer it is by flipping it upside down (what is the probability of surviving a single jump?) and multiplying that value by itself n times, where n is the number of jumps. .99999 * .99999 * .99999 * …
- gdiamos 1y agoThat’s only if you are planning to jump 100 more times.